Power Ratings vs. Spreads: Biggest Discrepancies for College Football Week 8

Oct 15, 2018 11:47 AM EDT
  • Collin Wilson compares his college football betting power ratings to the lines sportsbooks posted for Week 8.
  • He's highlighting five games with big discrepancies that may offer betting value.

Now that the opening lines for Week 8 of college football are out, let’s take a look at some of the biggest differences between my projected point spreads and what the books actually posted.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts for all my plays as the college football market continually moves.


Week 8 College Football Point Spread Projections

The Action Network spread reflects our numbers from Sunday morning, before the books posted their lines.

Miami Ohio at Army

  • Action Network spread: Army -10.5
  • Posted spread: Army -8

While the number isn’t too far off the projection, the line movement is notable. Army opened -12.5 and reached -13 before tumbling on Sunday night to as low as -7.5 in some offshore books.

Auburn at Ole Miss

  • Action Network spread: Ole Miss +6.5
  • Posted spread: Ole Miss +3.5

This could shape up to be a nice buy low spot for Auburn off its loss to Tennessee. The Tigers outgained the Vols in total yards but were hampered by three turnovers, specifically two interceptions by quarterback Jarrett Stidham.

Ole Miss is off a comeback win on the road at Arkansas, and needed a late touchdown to do it. The Razorbacks suffered multiple injuries and went two for nine on third downs.

Maryland at Iowa

  • Action Network spread: Iowa -8
  • Posted spread: Iowa -12.5

An opening point spread of Iowa -10 has been steamed to -12.5 in the wake of its offensive outburst against Indiana. Nate Stanley went 21 for 33 for 320 yards and six touchdowns against the Hoosiers.

Maryland ranks in the bottom half of the FBS against pass explosiveness and might have its hands full with the Hawkeyes.

Utah State at Wyoming

  • Action Network spread: Utah State -12.5
  • Posted spread: Utah State -16.5

The point spread for the Utah State-UNLV game in Week 7 moved more than 10 points from open to close. The Aggies covered every available number in the 31-point win.

Utah State is now 6-0 ATS and is covering the closing number by a margin of 14.1 points. Oddsmakers will continue to shade Utah State point spreads while looking for an opponent to cover.

Minnesota at Nebraska

  • Action Network spread: Nebraska -2.5
  • Posted spread: Nebraska -4

This line originally opened at Nebraska -7 and took heavy Minnesota action. The Action Network power rankings have this game under a field goal, while the latest S&P+ rankings would have Minnesota favored by 2.

Credit:

Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kelvin Hopkins Jr.

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
BSU
UNM
62.5
+21.5
62.5
+19.5
PSU
RUTG
48.5
+26
49.5
+28
ARK
MSST
45.5
-18.5
46.5
-21.5
CIT
BAMA
60.5
-51
62.5
-51.5
OSU
MD
58
+17.5
58.5
+14.5
NW
MINN
51
+3.5
47
-2
IDHO
FLA
59
-39.5
59
-40
MTSU
UK
45
-13
46.5
-16.5
UTAH
COLO
48.5
+7
48
+7
USU
CSU
68
+26
68
+28.5
SYR
ND
62.5
-10
65.5
-10
BC
FSU
49.5
+1
49
+1.5
WVU
OKST
69.5
+5
74
+5.5
MASS
UGA
62
-44
66.5
-41
IND
MICH
53
-27.5
53.5
-28.5
ORST
WASH
57.5
-31
58.5
-33.5
DUKE
CLEM
58
-27
57.5
-28.5
RICE
LSU
51
-44
52
-41.5
KU
OKLA
68
-34.5
69
-35.5
CIN
UCF
59.5
-8
61
-7
ISU
TEX
51
-3
47
-2.5
ARIZ
WSU
60.5
-10
62.5
-10.5