NCAAF Odds, Picks for Colorado State vs Utah State

Colorado State (2-2) will travel to take on Utah State (2-3) in a Mountain West Conference bout Saturday.

Colorado State's high-powered offense has been impressive through four games. Utah State has had moderate success on offense but hasn't quite been able to keep up with opponents because of a porous defense.

This line opened at Circa with Utah State as a 4-point favorite but has moved toward the Rams. CSU has a lot of money backing it in the market, and after digging into this game a bit more, I can certainly see why.

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Colorado State appears to be improved in its second season under head coach Jay Norvell. Sitting at 2-2, the Rams’ only losses have come against Pac-12 opponents — Washington State and Colorado.

CSU's offense has largely been responsible for its success. In every game, with the exception of the contest against Washington State, the Rams have had a Success Rate in the 83rd percentile or higher.

Yes, the Rams have faced some bad defenses, but Utah State has the lowest-ranked FBS defense that Colorado State has faced yet. For that reason, I think we can expect to see a similar output from the Rams.

Colorado State has thrown the ball at the sixth-highest rate in the country. When doing so, the Rams rank 13th in Success Rate and 15th in PPA.

The Rams' rushing attack has essentially been nonexistent, but that may also be why they're so reliant on the pass.

Defensively, Colorado State hasn't been great. It's 86th in Success Rate but 50th in Finishing Drives. The Rams' rushing defense has been a strength, as it ranks 65th in Success Rate and 19th in PPA.

The Aggies have suffered some close losses but have also played against a largely competent schedule this season. Utah State ranks 60th in Success Rate and 95th in Finishing Drives.

Much like Colorado State, the Aggies like to pass the ball. They pass at the 22nd-highest rate in the country but are just 73rd in Passing Success Rate and 55th in Passing PPA.

While they mainly stick to the air, they have been at their best on the ground. Utah State ranks 25th in Rushing Success Rate and 32nd in PPA.

However, the Aggies don’t have much of a defensive strength, coming in at 130th in Defensive Success Rate and 106th in Finishing Drives. They're also 130th in Success Rate against the run and 124th in Success Rate against the pass.

If there’s a saving grace for this unit, it’s that it's been great at preventing explosive plays. Utah State comes in at ninth in explosiveness allowed, but much of that has come against the run, where it ranks eighth, compared to 58th against the pass.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado State and Utah State match up statistically:

Colorado State Offense vs. Utah State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	125	130
Line Yards	131	80
Pass Success	11	99
Havoc	68	84
Finishing Drives	76	108
Quality Drives	100	99

Utah State Offense vs. Colorado State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	23	66
Line Yards	26	52
Pass Success	73	69
Havoc	87	58
Finishing Drives	95	51
Quality Drives	78	97

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	45	37
PFF Coverage	81	32
Special Teams SP+	68	38
Middle 8	120	51
Seconds per Play	23.6 (12)	22.6 (7)
Rush Rate	38.6% (129)	45.6% (117)

This matchup is quite favorable for Colorado State. Utah State’s defense is putrid, and the improved Colorado State passing attack should be able to take advantage of that weakness.

Utah State will also have an advantage on offense, but because Colorado State’s run defense is strong, the Aggies will be forced into a lot of passing downs, where they rank just 92nd in Success Rate this year (compared to 40th on standard downs).

There’s a chance this turns into a high-scoring affair, but I like backing the team that I feel has the better offense.