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The Liberty Flames take on the New Mexico State Aggies in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EST on ESPNU.
Liberty is favored by 14.5 points on the spread (-108) with a moneyline of -720. New Mexico State is a 14.5-point underdog on the spread (-112) with a moneyline of +530. The total is set at 46.5 points (-112o /108u).
Here’s my Liberty vs. New Mexico State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 7, 2026.
Liberty vs New Mexico State Predictions, Pick
- Liberty vs. New Mexico State Pick: New Mexico State Team Total Under 14.5 or better
My N. Mexico St vs. Liberty best bet is on under the Aggies' team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Liberty vs New Mexico State Odds, Spread, Line
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -108 | 46.5 -112o / -108u | -720 |
| N. Mexico St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -112 | 46.5 -112o / -108u | +530 |
- Liberty vs New Mexico State point spread: Liberty -14.5 (-108), N. Mexico St +14.5 (-112)
- Liberty vs New Mexico State over/under: 46.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Liberty vs New Mexico State moneyline: Liberty -720, N. Mexico St +530
Liberty vs New Mexico State Week 10 NCAAF Preview
Liberty Flames Betting Trends
In Week 3, it looked like Liberty was about to turn in a third straight stinker of a season. Doubts were starting to creep in about Jamey Chadwell's fit there, that he benefitted from a good roster already in place in 2023 and that he was getting a little Toledo-y with his status as the conference favorite who couldn't get it done.
But since that 1-1 start and near-loss to Gardner-Webb, Liberty has been on a tear.
Its win streak extends to seven in a row and, since the GWU game, five wins in six games where it's led by at least 30 points. It's been utter domination of a hapless Conference USA schedule both offensively and defensively.
QB Deshawn Purdie has found new life in Lynchburg, throwing for 10 touchdowns against only one interception in Chadwell's run-first option system. Only three non-service academies run the ball more frequently than Liberty (63.9% of offensive plays), and that's turned into the No. 5 points per drive offense in the country. Though not recognized on the Joe Moore Award midseason top 25, the offensive line has been terrific.
But the other half of this domination is thanks to the defense. That side of the ball ranks No. 3 in points per drive–a bit of credit does need to go to a really soft schedule with no Power Conference opponents–and No. 13 in Success Rate allowed.
The little bit of wiggle room given up has come on the ground, but only by the occasional explosive run; on a down-to-down basis, running isn't the most effective approach.
It's a repeatable and sustainable formula as Liberty closes the year against New Mexico State (126th in consensus power rating), Middle Tennessee (128th), Western Kentucky (119th), and Missouri State (120th). Barring a total gaffe, Liberty should walk to 11-1 and a Conference USA title after that.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends
The New Mexico State Aggies haven't played a lot of football lately. Before Saturday's kickoff begins, New Mexico State will have played just two games in 28 days and, in one of them, it didn't score a single point. The team shifts from our Tuesday night darling back to weekend football.
We last left this team losing 24-0 to Jacksonville State, gaining 34% of available yards, coming up empty in two red zone trips, and watching its quarterback throw for 29 yards. This performance is particularly brutal since NMSU won the turnover battle and ran for nearly 200 yards. But it's clear that the upgrade to Adam Damante was very brief and very limited.
Having 10 days off would be a benefit, but there's no reason to trust OC David Yost. Against teams inside the top 120 in consensus power rating, New Mexico State is 0-5, scoring an average of 11.4 points per game — three total against conference teams inside the top 120 nationally. Running back James Jones is the only player with any pop. But even with plenty of production from Jones, the offense sputters, and special teams can't convert.
The offensive line has been pretty solid against some really poor competition. It doesn't get much tougher from here, save for this week's game against Liberty.
NMSU's defense has been pretty solid, keeping all of its Conference USA foes to 24 or fewer points. It's opportunistic, creating frequent turnovers with a savvy group in the secondary despite an average pass rush.
There's a clear divide between performance against the worst teams in the country and performances against everyone else. As soon as NMSU doesn't have the athletes to keep up, it's curtains offensively. Yost's scheme isn't getting much juice from the squeeze.
How To Make Liberty vs New Mexico State Picks and Best Bets
It's back to the well with a bet that's paid off a handful of times this season — under New Mexico State's team total. I don't have an ounce of trust in the offensive coordinator and the returns on Damate are diminishing fast. Jacksonville State has a very average defense, and he was utterly lost.
Now Liberty comes to town. This is a team that's gaining strength, and the wheels are finally turning — after starting the year losing to James Madison and nearly losing to Gardner-Webb, Liberty is 6-0 with zero one-score games and an average point margin of +25.2. It hasn't allowed a touchdown outside of garbage time since September (17 quarters of play); the three total touchdowns scored since then have come when Liberty led 30-0 and 49-3.
New Mexico State isn't being spotted a lot of points here, but it'll have to find a score on defense or special teams to break it. With James Madison out of the College Football Playoff race, Liberty still has an outside shot–though it needs Boise State and New Mexico to lose, and not to each other, and the strength of schedule may make this a futile effort anyway–but the building still buys into that outside chance. I'd expect few mistakes and no lapses in focus for this roster.
Liberty is the physically superior team across the board. The Flames may give up production to Jones, but that's proven not to guarantee points.
At home or on the road, it doesn't matter. Liberty is rolling, and New Mexico State is reeling.
Pick: New Mexico State Team Total Under 14.5 or better
