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The No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1) take on the No. 1 Miami Hurricanes (8-0, 6-0 ACC) in a top-15 college football showdown on Saturday, Nov. 7 at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
This game became one of the best rivalries in college football in the late 1980s, and after a long hiatus, these two teams are meeting again for the second year in a row.
Miami has rolled to an 8-0 start this season, but the Hurricanes haven't looked dominant every week. Three weeks ago, The U barely snuck by Florida State in overtime, 43-35, before eking out a one-point win over North Carolina a week ago.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, reached as high as No. 2 in the AP Top 25 before suffering a 28-24 loss at the hands of BYU.
The Fighting Irish likely need a win here to stay in the College Football Playoff race.
That looks even more possible with the recent news that star Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney will have ankle surgery, sidelining him for this game and likely the rest of the regular season.
Since the news broke, Notre Dame moved from a -5.5 favorite to -7.5, and the over/under dropped from 57.5 to 55. So, where does the value lie in this top-15 tilt?
We polled 12 of our college football experts to get their takes on the spread and total, so let's dive into our Notre Dame vs. Miami picks and college football predictions for Saturday, November 7.
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Notre Dame vs. Miami Spread Pick
Our Staff's Pick: Miami +7.5
Our staff is pretty split here for one of the highest-stakes games of the entire regular season.
Notre Dame surprisingly checked in at No. 11 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, which likely means the Irish need to win out to make the playoff.
The fact that this is a must-win game for ND, coupled with it playing at home and having revenge on its mind after the close defeat to the Canes last year, is a large part of why a good chunk of our team likes the Irish to cover as a favorite.
Another reason for that is the fact that star Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney will now miss this game due to an ankle injury he suffered Wednesday in practice. That is a massive blow to the Canes offense.
All of that said, the slight edge in the majority still goes to Miami to cover this number.
This is still the No. 1-ranked team in the country for a reason, and now that this number has ballooned all the way out to a full touchdown, it feels like too many points.
Quarterback Darian Mensah will be without his top weapon, but he's still in the Heisman running for a reason. He'll be able to make some plays through the air against a Notre Dame defense that hasn’t quite lived up to the hype it got entering the year.
Part of that is due to injuries, and the Irish defense will be without Brauntae Johnson, DJ McKinney and potentially Francis Brewu in this one, making it vulnerable to the Miami passing attack.
These are two of the best teams in the country, and we ultimately feel that the game will come down to the wire, giving value to the Hurricanes as a seven-point underdog.
Notre Dame vs. Miami Over/Under Pick
Over 55 | 2Â Picks |
Pass | 3Â Picks |
Under 55 | 7Â Picks |
Our Staff's Pick: Under 55
We liked the under in this one at 57.5, and we still like it even after it has dipped a few points due to the Malachi Toney injury news.
The Irish defense may be banged up in the secondary, but this unit still has one of the best front sevens in America.
Players like Boubacar Traore and the now-healthy Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa will be able to get into the backfield and force Miami into some negative plays, which will in turn thwart some Miami drives.
The Irish have also been good at limiting big plays, so when the Canes do move the ball, I expect it to be more methodical than it has been for much of the season against ACC foes.
On the other side of the ball, the Miami defense has struggled a bit, especially defending the pass.
But ND hasn’t really been a "chuck it deep" type of offense all season, with its best receivers Jordan Faison and Jaden Greathouse being more intermediate pass-catchers.
Quarterback CJ Carr should still have plenty of success throwing the football, but likely more in the form of 10-15 yard gains at a time.
The Irish will also still look to establish the run game, another reason to expect some longer, more clock-bleeding drives from them.
In a game of this magnitude, each defense will put its best foot forward and come up with some timely stops.
Points will be scored, but we don’t think at the typical rate for these offenses. Let’s roll with the under.
Notre Dame vs. Miami Player Prop
Mark Fletcher Jr. Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 12.5)
By Alex Hinton
Mark Fletcher Jr. has scored a touchdown in each of his last six games.
He has nine rushing touchdowns this season, and that's usually how we expect him to score. However, last week, he scored on a 31-yard touchdown reception in addition to two rushing touchdowns.
Fletcher finished with two receptions for 43 yards against North Carolina. Even without the touchdown, Fletcher would've gone over this line as well as in two of his previous three games. He had two catches for 16 yards against Clemson, as well as one catch for 16 yards against Pitt.
Miami has looked to get Fletcher more in the passing game involved of late. That may become even more of an emphasis with wide receiver Malachi Toney sidelined for the foreseeable future.
Toney has been a safety blanket for quarterback Darian Mensah and catches a lot of screens and other underneath passes.
Miami still has a talented (but young) receiving corps that will be counted on to step up. However, it may also look to replace a little of Toney’s production by throwing Fletcher and letting him do the rest.
Considering he has already cleared this line in three of his last four games, 11 yards shouldn't be too much to ask for.
Notre Dame vs. Miami Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 55 -110o / -110u | -285 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 55 -110o / -110u | +230 |
