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The Louisville Cardinals take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, on Saturday, Nov. 14. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Louisville is favored by 3.5 (-110) points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. UNC is a 3.5-point (-110) underdog and is +142 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 57.5 total points (-115 / -105).
Here’s my Louisville vs. UNC prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14.
Louisville vs UNC Predictions and Picks
- Louisville vs. UNC Pick: UNC +3.5 (-110)
My UNC vs. Louisville best bet is on the Tar Heels to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Louisville vs UNC Odds, Spread, Line
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | -170 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | +142 |
- Louisville vs UNC point spread: Louisville -3.5 (-110), UNC +3.5 (-110)
- Louisville vs UNC over/under: 57.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Louisville vs UNC moneyline: Louisville -170, UNC +142
Louisville vs UNC Best Bets
Louisville Cardinals Betting Trends
Despite some close losses early in the year, head coach Jeff Brohm has Louisville right in the middle of the ACC race once again.
The Cardinals enter Chapel Hill at 6-3 overall and 5-2 in conference play, riding a four-game winning streak against some of the league's middling teams.
There's no denying the Cardinals are playing well, but Saturday night will be the most difficult test they have faced in some time.
Offensively, Louisville is about as balanced as any team you'll see in the country.
Quarterback Lincoln Kienholz has thrown for 2,276 yards and has 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He also uses his legs regularly and has found the end zone on the ground an incredible 11 times, leading the team.
As the actual running back, Isaac Brown is as good as any back in America, and he's a threat for a home-run play every time he touches the ball. Brown has scored eight touchdowns himself, averaging 7.5 yards per carry.
UNC has not been very good against the run, but Bill Belichick is always capable of making in-game adjustments, so this matchup in the trenches will go a long way in deciding the outcome.
On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals defense leaves something to be desired, which has held the team back at times throughout Brohm's tenure.
The Louisville defense ranks 42nd overall in Success Rate allowed, but that number has been bolstered recently by facing some pedestrian offenses like Georgia Tech and Stanford.
The Cards aren't great at stopping the run, and while the secondary has been a bit better, good passing teams have been able to throw it on them.
Forcing pressure and creating a takeaway or two would be huge for a defense that doesn't generate many three-and-outs.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Trends
Don't let the 5-4 record fool you: North Carolina has been put through the wringer this season and remained competitive through one of the tougher schedules in the country.
The Tar Heels have already seen TCU, Clemson, No. 3 Notre Dame and No. 1 Miami, while also making road trips to Pittsburgh and Duke.
They won both of those road games, beat the Horned Frogs on a neutral field to start the year, and lost, 38-35, to Miami in a game that came down to one turnover.
The Heels finally got a bit of a breather in their most recent game, beating UConn by a score of 38-21.
This has certainly not been a perfect second season for head coach Bill Belichick, but I think this group is better than its record indicates.
A major reason for that is quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., who has been playing some really good football in his final season.
The veteran signal-caller has thrown for 2,127 yards, 18 touchdowns and only six interceptions while completing more than 65% of his passes. He threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns against Miami and followed that up with another three-TD outing at UConn.
UNC ranks 15th nationally in Passing Success Rate, and I expect offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, who's still elite, to lean heavily on Edwards again Saturday.
Wide receiver Jordan Shipp leads the Tar Heels with 642 receiving yards, while tight end Jelani Thurman has caught 45 passes for 525 yards and eight touchdowns. Thurman's status is worth monitoring after he entered the week questionable.
The defense is where things get more complicated and what has surprisingly been holding this team back.
UNC ranks just 112th nationally in overall Success Rate allowed and an ugly 124th against the run. That's far from ideal against a Louisville offense that has consistently moved the ball on the ground.
A positive is that the defense has played significantly better at home, and if this game turns into a shootout, it never hurts to have the underdog.
More good news: the Tar Heels have been excellent at preventing explosive plays, which is something that Louisville has thrived on. They rank seventh nationally in limiting overall explosiveness and sixth against explosive passes.
If UNC can make Louisville methodically work its way down the field rather than giving up quick scores, I like its chances of hanging around.
Louisville vs UNC NCAAF Pick & Betting Preview
Louisville is probably the more complete football team, but getting more than a field goal against UNC on its home ground feels like too much.
The Tar Heels have been battle-tested all year, and this fanbase has admired the fight and stayed with them, even with hoops season tipping off last week.
I expect a packed house Saturday night inside Kenan Stadium, which is an underrated atmosphere when it's full and should help UNC in key moments.
Ultimately, I expect this game to come right down to the wire, so I will gladly back the home team getting three and the hook in a matchup where both offenses should have their way at times.
