Maryland vs Michigan Odds, Prediction & Pick | Big Ten CFB Betting Guide
Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Michigan’s Blake Corum.
Maryland vs Michigan Odds
Let's dive into the Maryland Terrapins vs Michigan W0lverines odds and find a prediction and pick in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Nov. 18
Michigan is set to face Maryland as the Wolverines look to pass their final test before the biggest game of the college football season.
The Wolverines better take the Terrapins seriously to avoid an upset that would send shock waves through the college football world. Maryland is 6-4 on the season, but it's a bit of a disappointment after starting out 5-0.
Michigan, deservedly so, is heavily favored, but let's dig into the matchup and make a Maryland vs. Michigan pick.
Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has struggled over the past five games.
Since the Terrapins started 5-0, his ability as a passer has steadily declined. I know they've played a tougher schedule, but take a look at the differences between the first five games and the past five games.
|Time||Yards/Attempt||Positive EPA Play %|
Data via Sports Info Solutions.
It's also not a surprise that two of his worst games this season came against Ohio State and Penn State, so going up against one of the best secondaries in the country this week is a nightmare matchup.
That means Maryland is going to have to run the ball effectively, which isn't something it's done on a consistent basis this season. Maryland is only averaging 3.9 yards per carry and ranks 87th in rushing success rate.
The Terrapins have actually done a pretty good job stopping the run this season. Even though they are 89th in rushing success rate allowed, they are only allowing 3.3 yards per carry because they don't allow big plays on the ground.
Maryland is 13th in rushing explosiveness allowed, which means this is the type of game in which Michigan can control the clock, gaining three or four yards at a time.
Michigan's offense has been incredibly efficient, but Rutgers and Penn State are the only two defenses it's played that rank in the top 40 for yards per play allowed.
The Wolverines' gameplan, once they got ahead against Penn State, was pretty clear — they weren't going to throw the ball unless it was absolutely necessary. Michigan ran the ball 46 times and attempted eight passes, but guess what? It worked.
It's also how the offense is set up. Michigan's offense is built on methodically moving the ball down the field while sucking the life out of the opposing defense. The Wolverines run the ball 59.7% of the time and trail only Air Force as they play at the second-slowest pace in the country, running a play every 31.4 seconds.
The offense isn't built on big plays. It's built on positive EPA plays over and over again. Michigan is 106th in explosiveness, but it's generating a positive EPA on 50.8% of its offensive plays, which is top 10 in the nation.
Penn State was able to move the ball at times against Michigan's defense, but the Wolverines completely shut down Drew Allar, who was 10-for-22 for 70 yards. Michigan is number one in EPA/Pass allowed and has the fourth-best PFF coverage grade, so they should also be able to shut down Tagovailoa.
As Penn State showed, opponents can run on Michigan's front seven, if they have an effective rushing attack. The Wolverines are 25th in rushing success rate and 46th in defensive line yards but are the No. 1 team in the country at generating havoc.
However, it's incredibly difficult to score on the Wolverines. Michigan is eighth in the country in finishing drives allowed with their opponents averaging just 1.63 points per drive that ends inside their 40-yard line.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Maryland match up statistically:
Michigan Offense vs. Maryland Defense
Maryland Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Pace of Play / Other
|Special Teams SP+||6||56|
|Seconds per Play||31.7 (132)||25.2 (34)|
|Rush Rate||60.9% (13)||42.5% (124)|
Michigan vs Maryland
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given how bad Maryland's offense has been trending over its past five games, I don't see how it'll put up more than 20 points here.
With Ohio State waiting on deck, I highly doubt Michigan is going to risk anything or take many chances once it gets a sizable lead, which does leave the Wolverines open to a back-door cover.
If this game is played at Michigan's pace, it's going to be incredibly slow with the Wolverines running the ball over and over, which will drain the clock and suck the life out of Maryland.
The wind is also going to be whipping in this game as there are expected to be winds over 10 mph at kickoff. Since 2005, games with 10+ mph average wind speed have gone under at a 56% rate.
I think we'll have another low-scoring game with Michigan not wanting to show anything to Ohio State. I like the value on Under 50.5 points.
Pick: Under 50.5
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