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The USC Trojans take on the Indiana Hoosiers in Bloomington, Indiana, on Saturday, Nov. 14. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Indiana is favored by -7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -275. USC, meanwhile, enters as a +7.5 underdog and is +225 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
Here’s my USC vs. Indiana prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14.
USC vs Indiana Prediction
- USC vs. Indiana Pick: Over 50.5 or Better
My Indiana vs. USC best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
USC vs Indiana Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
- USC vs Indiana Spread: Indiana -7.5 (-105), USC +7.5 (-115)
- USC vs Indiana Over/Under: 50.5 (-111o / -109u)
- USC vs Indiana Moneyline: USC +225, Indiana -275
USC vs Indiana College Football Preview
USC Trojans Betting Preview: Maiava Leads the Way
USC continues to field one of the best passing offenses in the nation, led by quarterback Jayden Maiava. The Trojans lead the Big Ten in passing yards and touchdowns, falling to fifth nationally in Passing Success Rate.
A top-25 Havoc allowed number comes from limiting opposing pass rushes, as Maiava has been sacked just eight times this season.
True freshman pass-catchers lead the team in targets, as wideout Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and slot Trent Mosley have a total of 10 touchdowns on nearly 1,000 receiving yards.
USC surprised college football fans by allowing just 18 points to Ohio State. The Buckeyes were down to a freshman quarterback, but the Trojans did keep Heisman contender Jeremiah Smith to 83 yards on 10 catches.
The victory does mark improvement, but a number of underlying statistics point to USC's continued struggles on defense. The Trojans missed 20 tackles against Ohio State, furthering a poor PFF grade of 113th in tackling.
Coordinator Gary Patterson has been unable to get any Havoc from his unit, also ranking bottom-20 in allowing quality drives. No matter who Indiana has under center, the Trojans must improve on an Pass EPA allowed rank of 115th.
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview: Quarterback Controversy?
Head coach Curt Cignetti expressed "total confidence" in seventh-year senior quarterback Grant Wilson after the backup quarterback took over duties from Josh Hoover against Minnesota and posted three big-time throws.
In comparison, Hoover had made three or more big-time throws in a single game this season just once.
Cignetti was indecisive in his early-week press conferences about who the starter would be against USC, but the expectation is that both will see time — as long as Hoover can return from the injury he suffered against Ohio State.
The Hoosiers defense is National Championship-ready, as Northwestern is the only team to exceed 20 points this season.
Indiana holds top-10 rankings in numerous defensive categories, including Success Rate allowed, Line Yards, Quality Drives allowed and Rush EPA allowed.
Edge Tobi Osunsanmi has 15.5 tackles for loss this season, leading a defense that has generated 32 sacks and 76 tackles for loss. A true test comes against a USC offensive line that's one of the best in limiting opposing pass rushes.
USC vs Indiana Pick, Betting Analysis
USC has pulled off two conference victories on the road this season against Penn State and Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights racked up 35 points on the Trojans defense, while the Nittany Lions managed to score 23 directly after losing their best player on offense.
USC did lose to Wisconsin, which has struggled on offense at times. But against the Trojans in Week 8, it managed to score in every quarter.
No matter who the quarterback is for Indiana in Week 11, there's every expectation that the Hoosiers will have more offensive success than a trio of games leading into the bye week.
Indiana's rushing attack has struggled all season, but it has advantages in Stuff Rate, Line Yards and Success Rate when hosting USC.
The bigger advantage comes in the passing game, as the Trojans rank 120th in Passing Success Rate allowed.
Patterson keeps the Trojans in quarters coverage, designed to limit explosives. Hoover has dominated quarters this season at a 57% Success Rate while creating an explosive on one of every four attempts.
If Hoover is playing for his starting job, the USC defense should oblige by allowing Indiana to get into scoring position.
There's every expectation that USC will move the ball through the air.
Maiava dominates Cover 3, Indiana's preferred coverage, with a 58% Success Rate and an average of 0.3 Expected Points Per Play.
While neither team plays uptempo, the number of possessions could exceed the national average. Neither USC nor Indiana has had success in running the ball, with both sitting outside the top 50 in Success Rate and EPA.
Both offenses excel at protecting the quarterback, while USC's tendency to rush takes a dive on second and third down.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Indiana to be favored by 8.5 points, within a point of alignment with the current market.
The better wager comes on a total that sits south of the key number 51.
Both offenses are expected to pass early thanks to inefficient running games, while both have offensive lines that can provide protection.
The Hoosiers also find themselves in a quarterback battle, as Cignetti and the coaching staff may want to get Wilson as many game reps as possible with the potential Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff on deck.
Pick: Over 50.5 or Better
USC vs Indiana Betting Trends
