Week 11 rolls on with a loaded afternoon slate, headlined by USC vs Indiana, Tennessee vs Texas A&M, and Boston College vs Notre Dame.
Check out our five college football best bets today for the afternoon slate on Saturday, November 14, below.
College Football Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
USC vs. Indiana Prediction
USC has pulled off two conference victories on the road this season against Penn State and Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights racked up 35 points on the Trojans' defense, while the Nittany Lions managed to score 23 directly after losing their best player on offense.
USC did lose to Wisconsin, which has struggled on offense at times. But against the Trojans in Week 8, it managed to score in every quarter.
No matter who the quarterback is for Indiana in Week 11, there's every expectation that the Hoosiers will have more offensive success than a trio of games leading into the bye week.
Indiana's rushing attack has struggled all season, but it has advantages in Stuff Rate, Line Yards and Success Rate when hosting USC.
The bigger advantage comes in the passing game, as the Trojans rank 120th in Passing Success Rate allowed.
Patterson keeps the Trojans in quarters coverage, designed to limit explosives. Josh Hoover has dominated quarters this season at a 57% Success Rate while creating an explosive on one of every four attempts.
If Hoover is playing for his starting job, the USC defense should oblige by allowing Indiana to get into scoring position.
There's every expectation that USC will move the ball through the air.
Jayden Maiava dominates Cover 3, Indiana's preferred coverage, with a 58% Success Rate and an average of 0.3 Expected Points Per Play.
While neither team plays uptempo, the number of possessions could exceed the national average. Neither USC nor Indiana has had success in running the ball, with both sitting outside the top 50 in Success Rate and EPA.
Both offenses excel at protecting the quarterback, while USC's tendency to rush takes a dive on second and third down.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Indiana to be favored by 8.5 points, within a point of alignment with the current market.
The better wager comes on a total that sits south of the key number 51.
Both offenses are expected to pass early thanks to inefficient running games, while both have offensive lines that can provide protection.
The Hoosiers also find themselves in a quarterback battle, as Cignetti and the coaching staff may want to get Wilson as many game reps as possible with the potential Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff on deck.
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Pick: Over 50.5 or Better
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Tennessee vs. Texas A&M Pick
By Stuckey
I'd love to get a 3 with the Aggies, which I'm patiently waiting on, as this is a potential trap game for the Vols, who just picked up an enormous home win over Kentucky last week.
While the final score looked impressive, that result was a bit misleading. It was just, 13-6, in the fourth quarter in a game where the Vols benefited from all of the fourth-down and turnover fortune.
Now, they must head down to College Station to take on a struggling Aggies team before hosting LSU in what could end up being a quasi-playoff game.
They may not be fully locked in here for only their third true road game of the season. For what it's worth, they lost at South Carolina and needed to come back in the fourth quarter at Arkansas in the previous two.
While I'm still waiting for the all-important 3 to pup on the full game, I did play some Texas A&M first half.
It's been a disappointing season for head coach Mike Elko, who will not be returning to the CFP in 2026. The offensive line just hasn't been able to replace all of the lost production from last season, which has negatively impacted quarterback Marcel Reed, who has struggled as a passer.
The defense still has some juice, but that side of the ball eventually collapses late in games without much help from the offense.
Additionally, the Aggies become dysfunctional on offense when forced to play from behind late in games due to breakdowns in pass protection and Reed's limitations in known passing situations.
Conversely, Tennessee is a fantastic frontrunner.
It can lean on its dominant ground game to eventually wear opposing defenses down, while defensive coordinator Jim Knowles can unleash his pressure packages to suffocate opponents trying to come from behind in a more pass-heavy game script.
The path for A&M is simple here: rely on a raucous crowd and its ground game early on while playing the field-position game and not putting its defense in unfavorable positions.
It has a much better chance of doing that throughout the first half, especially if Tennessee comes out a bit flat.
The numbers also bear that out. Despite being just 1-5 in SEC play, Texas A&M is only a -2 in the first half of league games. The 4-2 Vols have performed only slightly better at +6.
However, in the second half, it's a completely different story, where Tennessee owns a +50 point differential compared to the Aggies' almost perfectly inverse of -49.
In three of their losses, the Aggies were either tied or trailed by one at the break against Alabama, Kentucky and South Carolina. And believe it or not, Texas A&M has actually averaged more first-half points (10.0) in conference play than the Vols (9.8).
Based on the matchup, it's just difficult to envision the Aggies coming from too far behind to win this game. It's paramount they get off to a fast start.
Tennessee also comes into this game a bit beat up. It won't have its sack leader in Tyree Weathersby, who suffered a serious injury in last week's win over Kentucky. They will also have to shake up the interior of the offensive line without guard Nic Moore, who has really helped shore up the guard position following the loss of Wendell Moe Jr.
Tennessee's rushing attack will also take a bit of a hit without backup Daune Morris, who's averaging a robust 6.6 yards per carry on the season.
This is still a pretty one-dimensional offensive attack that wants to establish the run early, and the Aggies' run defense has been trending up late in the season.
Now, Texas A&M also has a few key injuries. It will be starting a freshman guard following a couple of injuries at the position, and it remains to be seen if star wideout Mario Craver will suit up.
But I do still think it can lean on the ground game early on, which is where you want to attack this terrific Tennessee defense. It also doesn't hurt that Rueben Owens II finally looked like himself last week at South Carolina.
Gig Em.
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Pick: Texas A&M 1H PK or Better
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Cal vs. Virginia Best Bet
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
Bounce Back Fade is a college football system that takes advantage of public overreaction to teams coming off a poor performance.
In conference play, when an opponent has just lost by more than three points and enters with only a one-game home or away streak, bettors often expect a strong rebound effort.
Oddsmakers know this tendency and may shade the line toward that team, creating hidden value on the other side.
By focusing on spreads between three and sixteen points, the system captures games that are competitive enough for the line to matter but not so close that small swings decide the outcome.
In these situations, fading the supposed bounce-back team has historically delivered consistent returns, as motivation alone doesn't erase the underlying weaknesses that caused the initial loss.
And sure, Virginia is in a prime bounce-back spot: the Cavs are looking to snap a three-game losing streak at home against a West Coast team, and they've had two weeks to prepare following last Saturday's bye.
But let's not forget that the Cavs have lost five of their past seven games, with one of those two wins coming against Delaware.
The offense can't move the ball (105th nationally in EPA per Play), and the defense struggles mightily to stop the run (125th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed).
Cal is a dreadful team, but I still feel this line is way inflated because of all the situational circumstances, and I think the Bears can keep it within a score.
Pick: Cal +10 or Better
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Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty Team Total
By Kyle Hunter
The Flames are in the running for the G6 CFP spot, but the biggest issue on their resume is strength of schedule.
Therefore, the Flames need style points every time they can get them, and Saturday is a great opportunity.
Middle Tennessee State ranks 136th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed, 133rd in yards per carry allowed, and 116th in QBR allowed. The Blue Raiders can't stop a nosebleed, allowing 42 points to Western Kentucky in Week 10 and 44 points to Kennesaw State in Week 9.
Liberty is a dangerous rushing attack, leading the nation in Rush Success Rate while ranking 34th in Points Per Opportunity. The Flames can move the rock and finish drives. While they don't throw the ball much, Deshawn Purdie should have plenty of time in the pocket to find some open looks, given the Flames rank 12th nationally in yards per attempt while Middle Tennessee ranks 135th in Havoc.
I think Liberty hangs a big number on Saturday.
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Pick: Liberty TT Over 37.5 or Better
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Boston College vs. Notre Dame Player Prop
By Doug Ziefel
Jaden Greathouse has a clear role in a high-powered offense. The senior has 23 catches for 308 yards this season, and he has cleared 29.5 in four of eight games, including a career-best eight catches for 125 yards at BYU.
More relevant to this spot, he went over in three of Notre Dame’s biggest blowouts, with 30 yards and a touchdown against Stanford, 36 at Purdue, and 48 against Rice. When the Irish are comfortably ahead, Carr spreads the ball around early, and Greathouse is among his first reads.
The matchup sets up for a similar script. Notre Dame is a roughly 29.5-point favorite with a total above 52, and Carr has been nearly flawless, throwing for 2,168 yards and 21 touchdowns against one interception.
Boston College’s defense is better against the pass than the run, so Notre Dame’s best path early is through the air. At 6-foot-1 and 212 pounds, Greathouse is the sort of receiver who turns a short throw into a chunk play, as his 38-yard catch at BYU and a 48-yard touchdown earlier this year showed.
He only needs two or three catches to cash this ticket. With the injuries that cost him most of last season behind him and his role growing as the year has gone on, 29.5 is a reasonable bar for a player with his big-play ability.
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Pick: Jaden Greathouse Over 29.5 Rec Yards or Better
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