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The No. 9 Indiana Hoosiers (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) take on the No. 18 USC Trojans (7-2, 4-2) in a top-20 Big Ten battle on Saturday, Nov. 14 at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Indiana finds itself in the middle of some College Football Playoff controversy after dropping five spots despite not playing a game last week.
The Hoosiers have suffered only one loss on the season — a 19-15 defeat at the hands of Ohio State in a game that nearly turned into a win — but have gone to overtime against unranked Michigan and Minnesota in their last two games.
USC, meanwhile, is coming off a 30-18 shellacking of Ohio State, but it's not the same Buckeyes team that beat Indiana due to an injury to quarterback Julian Sayin.
Ultimately, this is a game that will prove who's a real contender.
Indiana enters as a -8.5 favorite at home with the over/under sitting at 50 total points. So, where does the value lie?
We polled nine of our college football experts to get their takes on the spread and total, so let's dive into our Indiana vs. USC picks and college football predictions for Saturday, November 14.
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Indiana vs. USC Spread Pick
Our Staff's Pick: USC +8.5
By RoadToCFB
Our staff voters at Action Network are in near lockstep when it comes to Saturday’s marquee between USC and Indiana, siding with the Trojans at +7.5.
Of course, this number hinges severely on the hook; likely, our staff would be more split or lean Hoosiers at -7 or better.
Since quarterback Josh Hoover suffered an injury against Ohio State, the Indiana offense has taken a significant step backward, averaging just 16 points per game in regulation (with two overtime wins against Minnesota and Michigan).
Hoover hasn’t missed any time, but perhaps he should have, considering his combined 16-for-37 passing (43.2%) with one touchdown and two interceptions.
He’s also frequently off-target on throws that require more zip and precision downfield, an effect of the injury.
After a shaky start, USC’s defense has improved quite a bit under coordinator Gary Patterson.
While still by no means a strong unit nationally, the Trojans have held each of their last four opponents to 24 points or less — a big improvement from allowing 35 to Rutgers earlier this year.
USC ranks 47th in Points Per Drive allowed on the season, also a nice jump from last year’s 73rd.
However, if there’s a concern, it’s how USC’s offense performs on the road even off a bye week. Temperatures in Bloomington are forecast to remain in the mid-40s throughout the game, falling into the upper 30s deeper in the second half.
USC’s offense has shown a propensity to stay in L.A., like when it was held to just seven points at Wisconsin in Week 8.
Quarterback Jayden Maiava needed to attempt 50 passes, as the USC ground game was held to completely nothing (-18 rush yards after sacks and +39 by running backs).
Although not the same elite squad as last year, IU’s defense is still a top-20 unit in Success Rate allowed (7th), Points Per Drive allowed (9th) and EPA Per Play allowed (19th).
Ultimately, this is a play on +7.5 (a 14% change in expected win rate over +7) and against Indiana until Hoover shows himself to be healthier.
Indiana vs. USC Over/Under Pick
Over 50 | 7Â Picks |
Pass | 0Â Picks |
Under 50 | 2Â Picks |
Our Staff's Pick: Over 50
By RoadToCFB
Our staff is also in agreement on the total, with seven of our nine voters this week leaning over 50 points. Unlike with the spread, this is congruent with the market movement, which now shows signs of moving to 50.5 — away from important totals of both 48 and 49.
Despite pace concerns for USC (74th in seconds per play, 84th in explosive play rate) and Indiana (107th in seconds per play), there is an imbalance between Indiana’s explosive play rate (8.7%, 21st) and USC’s defense.
That defense has improved, but let’s take a second look at the last four opponents:
- Ohio State: An offensive mess without star QB Julian Sayin
- Wisconsin: 66th in Points Per Drive, 74th in Touchdown Rate
- Penn State: 45th in Points Per Drive, 75th in Touchdown Rate
- Washington: 86th in Points Per Drive, 72nd in Touchdown Rate
This unit has broken down against other offenses like Oregon (largely with Dylan Raiola, allowed 7.4 yards per play) and… checks notes… Rutgers (6.7 yards per play).
Expect Indiana to lean heavily on Lee Beebe as Turbo Richard sits this one out with an injury.
Beebe controlled the backfield against Northwestern when Richard was previously out and rushed for over 200 yards. He followed that up with a 122-yard outing against Rutgers.
USC’s defense ranks 109th in Rushing Success Rate allowed due to continued tackling issues (16.2% missed tackle rate is 113th). It’s clearly a practice problem under Lincoln Riley, as this is now DC No. 4, and the tackling simply hasn’t improved.
Patterson’s TCU defenses were known for their perimeter tackling — that’s what makes or breaks a 4-2-5 defense — and that hasn’t translated here.
USC’s offense is capable of keeping up, occasional concerns aside, and there’s not enough confidence in the defense to keep this one under.
Indiana vs. USC Player Prop
Jayden Maiava Under 233.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Heading into the year, Jayden Maiava was gaining traction as a popular sleeper pick to win the Heisman while taking a step forward with his level of play under center.
While the USC quarterback is on pace to set a career high in passing touchdowns, he's comfortably behind in passing yards while averaging fewer yards per throw.
Maiava’s conservative throws have made the Trojans overly reliant on methodical drives to march down the field, making the offense prone to stalling out when matched up against a high-quality defense.
USC’s own defense has also done Maiava no favors in regard to where he starts his drives, ranking 75th in average field position.
Unfortunately for Maiava, he's in for a long night against Indiana while trying to pick apart a secondary that excels in coverage, per the Hoosiers' top-15 marks in Passing Success Rate allowed and PPA allowed.
With USC’s wide receivers struggling to create separation, the width of Maiava’s windows will shrink, leading to a lower completion percentage.
Indiana’s pressure at the line of scrimmage will also give Maiava less time in the pocket to operate, forcing the Trojans quarterback to weave the ball through crowded coverage.
Even with Indiana’s back end residing near the bottom of the board in passing explosiveness allowed, the Trojans' pass-catchers won't be given enough time to break away from their assignments, making it easier for the Hoosiers to keep a defender near the point of contact.
With the over on Maiava’s passing yardage prop steaming up, wait until it hits its peak and bet the under. If you have access to a sportsbook that has alt lines, mineshaft the market by placing smaller wagers on his alternate unders.
Indiana vs. USC Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | -330 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | +260 |
