Ohio State vs Maryland Odds, Picks: Why You Shouldn’t Fade Terps

Ohio State vs Maryland Odds, Picks: Why You Shouldn’t Fade Terps article feature image

Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa.

Ohio State vs Maryland Odds

Saturday, Nov. 19
3:30 p.m. ET
Ohio State Odds
-110o / -110u
Maryland Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Ohio State looks to get by its last test before a date with Michigan when it travels to College Park to take on Maryland.

The Buckeyes haven't had many close calls throughout their Big Ten schedule and are in a massive look-ahead spot with Michigan on deck in a game that will decide who not only goes to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship game but who keeps their College Football Playoff hopes alive.

To even be in the position, though, they have to get past Maryland first.

The Terrapins have completely fallen off the past two games, losing to Wisconsin, 23-10, and Penn State, 30-0, last week. So, that's why the Terps are 27.5-point underdogs at home.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Buckeyes Offense

CJ Stroud is still the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, and it's easy to see why. He owns an 83.9 PFF passing grade and has thrown for 34 touchdowns to four interceptions. He's also put up a whopping 9.9 yards per pass attempt.

While Stroud has all of the talent in the world, it also helps to have two of the best wide receivers in college football in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr., who will be very important in this game against a below-average Maryland secondary

Ohio State's rushing attack is built on the two-headed monster of Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson. They've combined for a whopping 40 rushes over 10 yards and have 19 touchdowns between them.

Henderson didn't play against Indiana last week and is questionable for this game. So, it may end up being the Miyan Williams show, as he's coming off a 147-yard rushing performance on only 15 carries against Indiana.

Miyan Williams would not be denied on this long TD run💪


— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 5, 2022

Buckeyes Defense

The Ohio State defense has been really good this season, allowing only 4.2 yards per play (5th in FBS) while ranking sixth in EPA/Play Allowed.

The Buckeyes' front seven has done an incredible job stopping the run, allowing only 3.0 yards per carry and ranking fourth in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 16th in Defensive Line Yards. However, they have been prone to giving up explosive runs, as they rank 54th in explosive rushing allowed.

Ohio State sits fourth nationally in EPA/Pass Allowed and has the 16th-best coverage grade, per PFF. However, the same issues that prevent Ohio State from defending the explosive run exist when it comes to defending the explosive pass as well. The Bucleyes rank 86th in explosive passing allowed.

The biggest concern for Ohio State in this game is when Maryland crosses the 40-yard line because the Terrapins rank pretty high in Offensive Finishing Drives at 27th. Ohio State, meanwhile, comes in at 68th in Finishing Drives Allowed.

Maryland Terrapins

Terrapins Offense

Last weekend against Penn State was maybe the worst game Maryland has had offensively with Taulia Tagovailoa under center. The Terrapins gained just 134 yards of offense and averaged just 2.2 yards per play.

However, Tagovailoa really hasn't been that bad overall this season. He has an 80.7 PFF passing grade AND IS averaging 7.6 yards per attempt to go along with an adjusted completion percentage of 78.4%.

Image via PFF.

Tagovailoa is going to have to throw the ball deep to beat this Ohio State secondary, and he's found success in that area this season. Of all his passes, 32.7% have been over 10 yards, and he owns an 85.2 PFF passing grade on those throws.

Maryland is averaging 4.4 yards per carry but ranks 83rd in Rushing Success Rate and 66th in EPA/Rush. Its offensive line has been getting a decent push, ranking 25th in Offensive Line Yards.

But the reality is it will need to rely on explosive plays in the run game, where it ranks 51st nationally.

Ohio State vs Maryland Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio State and Maryland match up statistically:

Ohio State Offense vs. Maryland Defense
Rush Success1269
Line Yards568
Pass Success573
Pass Blocking**14118
Finishing Drives127
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Maryland Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
Rush Success834
Line Yards2516
Pass Success854
Pass Blocking**344
Finishing Drives2765
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling1740
PFF Coverage1658
SP+ Special Teams2315
Seconds per Play27.7 (95)26.3 (63)
Rush Rate54.8% (61)52.1% (72)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Ohio State vs Maryland Betting Pick

This is an ugly game to bet. Ohio State finds itself in a massive look-ahead spot, and Maryland has looked terrible offensively in the last two games.

But history shows — albeit in a small sample size — that the week before playing Michigan, Ohio State has covered only twice in the last 12 years.

Short sample trend: Ohio State has covered twice since 2009 the week before Michigan per @Bet_Labspic.twitter.com/PJ5RDVAX6R

— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) November 17, 2022

As far as this game is concerned, Maryland's ability to finish drives against Ohio State's defense should help it to cover as 27.5-point underdogs.

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