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Temple vs Houston Odds & Picks: Scoreboard to Light Up (November 12)

Temple vs Houston Odds & Picks: Scoreboard to Light Up (November 12) article feature image
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Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: E.J. Warner (Temple)

Temple vs Houston Odds

Saturday, Nov. 12
3 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Temple Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+20
-110
56.5
-110o / -110u
+700
Houston Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-20
-110
56.5
-110o / -110u
-1100
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Temple travels to Houston for an American Athletic Conference matchup.

Houston has an outside chance to get back into AAC Championship contention with some help, but a win is more to improve its bowl game.

Temple will need to win the rest of its games to have a shot at a bowl game.

Temple enters this game with a 3-6 record and is coming off of a win and cover against South Florida. The Owls are 6-3 against the spread and have gone under in five games.

Houston enters this game with a 5-4 record, including a 3-2 record in AAC play. The Cougars are 3-6 against the spread and have gone over in eight games this season.

It will be windy in Houston and that could have an impact on scoring. There are winds ranging from 10.5 to 12.7 miles per hour forecasted.


Temple Owls

While a 3-6 record may not appear successful on the surface, having three wins at this point of the year is a possible sign of improvement for a program that finished 2021 with just three wins and finished 2020 with one.

The Owls average 19.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play. They have a 35% Success Rate and average 2.95 points per opportunity. They also average 24.7 seconds per play.

The biggest issue for this offense has been its 21% Havoc Rate Allowed.

E.J. Warner has led a passing attack that averages 36.2 pass attempts and 226.3 passing yards per game. Warner has completed 56.1% of his passes for an average of 6.5 yards per attempt. As a team, Temple has a 38% Passing Success Rate and averages 2.55 20+ yard passes per game.

Edward Saydee leads the Owls with 555 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

As a team, Temple averages 3.3 yards per attempt and 95.4 yards per game on the ground. The Owls have a 33% Rushing Success Rate, which ranks 131st nationally. Their offensive line generates 2.61 Line Yards per play and has allowed an 18.3% Stuff Rate.

Compared to its offense, the Temple defense has been a strength. It allows 26.2 points per game and 5.3 yards per play, along with a 41% Success Rate and 3.48 points per opportunity.

The Owls’ 21% Havoc Rate ranks 14th nationally.

Particularly important for this matchup is their strength against the pass, as they own a 40% Passing Success Rate Allowed.


Houston Cougars

Dana Holgorsen’s Cougars haven’t found the same success that they experienced in their 12-2 2021 campaign, but he’s on pace for just his second bowl-eligible season at Houston.

Houston is averaging 36.8 points per game and 6.4 yards per play. It has a 48% Success Rate and averages 4.93 points per opportunity. It also averages 25.3 seconds per play.

Houston averages 38 pass attempts and 304.8 passing yards per game. Clayton Tune has thrown all but three passes for the Cougars this year. He’s completed 67.8% of his passes for an average of 8.1 yards per attempt.

The run game has been pieced together compared to the Cougars’ 2021 offense. Tune leads the team with 384 rushing yards, but three other players have at least 200 rushing yards.

As a team, the Cougars have a 47% Rushing Success Rate. Their offensive line generates 3.42 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 14.4% Stuff Rate.

Defense has been a struggle for this team. It allows an average of 36.2 points per game and 6.0 yards per play. It also allows a 44% Success Rate — which ranks 97th nationally — and 4.14 points per opportunity — which ranks 96th.

One redeeming quality for this defense is its 18% Havoc rate, which ranks 53rd.


Temple vs Houston Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Temple and Houston match up statistically:

Temple Offense vs. Houston Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 131 102
Line Yards 129 41
Pass Success 103 86
Pass Blocking** 80 1
Havoc 75 35
Finishing Drives 123 96
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Houston Offense vs. Temple Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 43 54
Line Yards 26 36
Pass Success 17 51
Pass Blocking** 9 77
Havoc 45 25
Finishing Drives 5 35
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 63 115
PFF Coverage 33 61
SP+ Special Teams 98 58
Seconds per Play 24.7 (32) 25.3 (40)
Rush Rate 44.2% (116) 46.0% (110)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Temple vs Houston Betting Pick

The public is siding with the Owls to cover a three-score spread. 60% of bets have been on Temple, but it appears that sharps are backing Houston, as 53% of the money is on Houston.

My initial instinct is to back Houston covering a large spread because it seems unlikely that Temple’s defense will slow down Houston’s offense. But the concern with taking the spread is that Houston’s defense has shown real holes and holding a 20-point lead may prove to be impossible.

So, I’m going to back the total, and I’m taking the over. Houston has proven capable of scoring on any team in the conference and its game against South Florida proved that its defense can equally allow points to just about anyone.

Pick: Over 56.5 (Play up to 58)

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