Sugar Bowl Odds, Predictions | Texas vs Washington CFP Betting Preview
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Sugar Bowl Odds
| Texas Longhorns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
| Washington Huskies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
A repeat of the 2022 Alamo Bowl will take place in the 2023 national semifinal game at the Sugar Bowl when the Texas Longhorns take on the Washington Huskies.
Texas last visited New Orleans in 2019, a victory over a Georgia team that was on the verge of multiple national titles.
Washington will look to do the unthinkable — travel to a hostile environment in SEC territory for the chance to compete for a National Championship. Kalen DeBoer is 103-11 as a head coach but has his toughest assignment yet with the Huskies having never participated in the Sugar Bowl.
Washington went undefeated on the season, sweeping a Pac-12 schedule full of top-25 teams.
The Huskies struggled down the stretch, challenged in one-possession victories over Arizona State and Washington State. They flexed in the Pac-12 Championship game against Oregon, dominating on third downs and cashing in on scoring opportunities.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is fulfilling his quest to get the Longhorns back as a national power. A Week 2 victory over Alabama in Tuscaloosa made the Longhorns a true national title contender, and their only loss on the season was to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.
Supported by the best rush defense in the nation, Texas populated an offensive roster with explosive playmakers on the outside.
While the Superdome will be filled to the brim with Longhorns fans, a victory would seal a national title berth in the state of Texas for Sarkisian.
The rise of Texas has been a slow burn, as Sarkisian missed bowl season in 2021 and ended last year with a disappointing 8-5 record.
Elite recruiting and transfer portal activity before the 2023 season led to team depth and explosiveness at the skill positions.
Junior wide receiver Xavier Worthy averaged 2.3 yards per route run, adding an explosive element upon the arrival of Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers saw massive improvement over 2022, cutting his turnover-worthy play rate nearly in half.
The offense will be without leading rusher Jonathon Brooks, who accumulated more than 1,100 yards before suffering a season-ending injury. Both CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue will use outside zone concepts to improve a rank of 69th in Rushing Success Rate.
Ewers is expected to see plenty of passing downs in the Sugar Bowl and has dominated Cover 3 while posting average Success Rates against Cover 1.
The rush defense has been the strength of the Longhorns, led by the defensive interior of T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II. The combination led to a top-10 defensive ranking in pass rush and Stuff Rate.
The nickel package of coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski used blitz on 33% of snaps while implementing heavy-quarters coverage.
Where the Texas defense struggled was in the back end, ranking 64th in passing expected points. Cornerback Terrance Brooks and linebacker Jaylan Ford turned in two of the lowest coverage grades, per PFF.
Meanwhile, safety Derek Williams Jr. will miss the first half of this game because of a targeting violation in the Big 12 Championship.
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The most elite passing attack in the nation comes from Seattle, led by super senior quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Both Penix and DeBoer worked together at Indiana, running an offensive style that took advantage of Big Ten defenses. The Huskies utilize a 58% pass-to-run ratio, often using play-action to set up downfield targets. Penix finished the season with 33 touchdowns, 12 of which came from play-action passing.
The Huskies ended the season ranked in the top 10 in Success Rate in terms of both the rush and pass. Running back Dillon Johnson averaged more than three yards after contact in logging 14 rushing touchdowns on the season.
The offensive line was the recipient of the 2023 Joe Moore Award, signifying the most prestigious unit in college football. This same offensive line protected Penix in the 2022 Alamo Bowl, allowing just five pressures in 55 true passing attempts.
Defensive coordinator Chuck Morrell had Washington prepared for Oregon in the conference championship game.
The Ducks averaged 6.2 yards per rush and a minimal 5.4 average yards to go on third downs during the regular season. The Huskies allowed Oregon to convert just three third-down attempts, a swarming effort not seen in the second half of the season schedule.
The 2-4-5 defense has had issues defending the run over the course of the season, ranking 132nd in Line Yards. The biggest struggles came from opposing offenses running inside zone, as the Huskies had plenty of success stopping outside zone.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and Washington match up statistically:
Texas Offense vs. Washington Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 69 | 129 | |
| Line Yards | 57 | 132 | |
| Pass Success | 16 | 18 | |
| Havoc | 57 | 115 | |
| Finishing Drives | 72 | 80 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 45 |
Washington Offense vs. Texas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 7 | 6 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 6 | 33 | |
| Havoc | 30 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 14 | 36 | |
| Quality Drives | 17 | 20 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 88 | 102 |
| PFF Coverage | 51 | 24 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 17 | 46 |
| Middle 8 | 45 | 23 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.6 (60) | 27.4 (73) |
| Rush Rate | 54.4% (72) | 42.2% (122) |
Texas vs Washington
Betting Pick & Prediction
There's no expectation that Washington will establish the run against Texas' defensive front.
Johnson and Penix have run 159 inside zone plays this season, averaging a high Success Rate of 62%. The Longhorns are dominant against outside zone, falling back to the national average Success Rate at 47% against inside zone.
Any success running the ball will help set up the bread and butter of the Washington offense — the play-action pass. Nearly 20% of the Huskies' passing comes through play-action, as Washington averaged a whopping 67% Success Rate with an explosive play rate of 38%.
This is the most crucial aspect for the Texas defense, which dominated play-action for most of the season.
Penix will see plenty of quarters coverage from the Longhorns, which will be looking to put pressure on the southpaw quarterback.
Penix has one of the lowest pressure-to-sack ratios in the country at 3.2%, perhaps signaling that last year's nullified pass rush from the Longhorns in the Alamo Bowl will repeat.
The Texas secondary will struggle to defend the Huskies' favorite passing routes. Penix's most frequent targets come on hitches, outs and wide receiver screens. Texas has been dreadful against hitches and wide receiver screens, producing a Success Rate of just 37%.
With Washington expected to piece together methodical drives to set up scoring opportunities, the Longhorns must have their best effort from a Finishing Drives perspective.
Scoring opportunities have been hit or miss for Texas, averaging just 3.8 points on 98 drives extending beyond the 40-yard line. That number sags even further in the red zone, ranking 121st in touchdown rate.
Texas has the statistical advantage in many other categories, including special teams, tackle grading and explosives. Despite the advantages, there's a clear path to a Washington victory on the Superdome's fast track.
Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan are the deadliest trio of receivers in college football, a master challenge for a Texas secondary that has struggled to defend the pass.
The Washington defense must produce a swarming effort on third downs, similar to its outstanding play in the Pac-12 Championship. DeBoer has the edge in Middle 8 scoring, quickly becoming one of the best in-game coaches in college football.
A Texas victory must include elite execution in scoring position, an issue that has plagued the Horns all season. Washington will produce plenty of scoring opportunities running screens and hitches, especially without pressure on Penix.
Look for the Huskies to potentially move on to Houston to compete for the National Championship.
Pick: Washington +4 or Better
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