Texas State at BYU Betting Odds & Pick: Cougars’ March to Playoff Contention Continues (Saturday, Oct. 24)
Tim Warner/Getty Images. Pictured: Brigham Young’s Gunner Romney.
- Undefeated BYU and Heisman Trophy hopeful Zach Wilson take on a struggling Texas State team in Provo, Utah on Saturday night.
- Collin Wilson takes a deep dive into this showdown, where the Bobcats hope to cover the 28.5-point spread as road underdogs in what could be a lopsided showdown.
- Find Collin Wilson's full betting preview with updated odds and his pick below.
Texas State at BYU Odds
|Texas State Odds||+29.5 [ADD TO APP]|
|BYU Odds||-29.5 [ADD TO APP]|
|Moneyline||+1400/-4500 [ADD TO APP]|
|Over/Under||62.5 [ADD TO APP]|
|Time||10:15 p.m. ET|
Things could get pretty ugly Saturday when Brigham Young, ranked 11th in the nation, hosts Texas State.
The Cougars are off to their first 5-0 start since the 2008 season. In contrast, Texas State (1-5) enters this game in the midst in a three-game losing streak.
Weather could play a factor on what looks to be a chilly evening in Provo, with the temperature forecasted to hover around the freezing mark at kickoff.
Can BYU continue its unblemished season with a victory over Texas State, or do we have the makings of a shock upset happening in this showdown? Let’s take a look at each team and what could be in store:
Check out our free NCAAF odds page, which automatically surfaces the best line for every game.
Texas State Bobcats
This is not where Jake Spavital expected his team to be come late October.
A 1-5 record, including a 1-2 mark in conference play, leaves plenty of work to be done for the Bobcats to exceed last year’s mark. Quarterback Brady McBride has not presented nearly the upgrade that gamblers banked on versus Tyler Vitt. Even with McBride under center, the Bobcats still rank a paltry 62nd in passing Success Rate.
McBride hasn’t had much protection from his offensive line or bouts with COVID-19, but when he does leave the pocket, explosive plays can happen.
Brady McBride finds K-Dot Sheread for 36 yards (they should not have taken his towel!). South Alabama called for facemask on the play. Brock Sturges finishes the drive on a 1-yard TD. Extra point is good @smdrsports #TXST 17#USA 17
7:57 left in the 3rd pic.twitter.com/P0YTaUIclm
— Drew King (@drewking0222) October 17, 2020
The defense has been fantastic at limiting pass explosiveness. Limiting SMU to just six passes over 20 yards was a victory for the secondary in its season opener. In recent games, the Bobcats allowed just one pass to exceed 20 yards against Boston College and South Alabama. The defense also tightens up in the red zone, ranking 31st in opponent scoring percentage.
With three minutes left in the third quarter, BYU had no answers against Houston, which had scored 23 straight points and taken a 12-point lead. Heisman candidate Zach Wilson led touchdown drives on four of the next six drives to easily obtain the road victory. A ‘chip-9‘ onside kick buried gamblers with Houston tickets.
BYU SURPRISE onside kick
Houston was caught soooooo off guard 💀💀 pic.twitter.com/6tOvVUYMzP
— i Reporter Liam 🦖 (@Blutman27) October 17, 2020
As Wilson’s Heisman hype continues to ascend alongside Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, so too has BYU exceeded in the polls, leaving a debate whether an undefeated Cougars team should be in the College Football Playoff. The offense is top-20 in success rate, sack rate and finishing drives.
A picture is worth a thousand words, and one view of the Pace Report on Success Rate and seconds per play clearly places BYU among the most efficient offenses in college football.
The Cougars defense is also worth a mention, specifically in the red zone. BYU allows only 2.17 points to opponents who cross the 40-yard line. Both Zac Dawe and Tyler Batty rank in the FBS Top 30 for individual tackles for loss. The one knock on the Cougars defense would be pass explosiveness, but six of the 14 passes to exceed 20 yards came in a single game against Houston.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The BYU undefeated season continues, with all eyes on a Nov. 6 trip to Boise State. Until then, the Cougars will look to stay in rhythm against Texas State and Western Kentucky, who both travel to Provo, Utah, over the next two weeks. There should be no resistance in the Wilson passing attack against a Texas State defense that ranks 66th in passing Success Rate.
Check out our new CFB PRO Report, where we highlight factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.
Our Pace Report projects a total of 62 points, which is spot on with the current market. The Action Network also projects the spread at BYU at minus-28, giving a slight edge to Texas State at the current number. This will be the first time BYU plays in front of home crowd, as 6,000 fans are expected to populate Lavell Edwards Stadium.
The handicap in this game comes down to Texas State leaning on 12 personnel. BYU struggled in a short victory over UTSA as 35-point favorites, as Kalani Sitake mentioned issues against a two-tight end set. Texas State has run 12 personnel on 20% of its plays this season, with tight ends Jackson Lanam and Blake Aragon collecting seven receptions each.
On the other side of the ball, BYU may sit a few players who sustained injuries in the Houston game.
Wide receiver Gunner Romney is dealing with a hamstring issue while starting center James Empey deals with an ankle. Linebacker Kavika Fonua left the Houston game with injuries while starting defensive back Micah Harper must sit out the first half after a targeting call against Houston.
Sitake will do his best to get Wilson his numbers, but the play-calling may be more rush than pass given the Cougars’ numerous injuries. The value is on Texas State with any number more than four touchdowns.
Pick: Texas State +28.5 or better.