Tulane vs Cincinnati Odds, Predictions: How to Bet This Over/Under
Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Cincinnati’s Tyler Scott.
Tulane vs Cincinnati Odds
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 44 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 44 -110o / -110u | -105 |
Tulane and Cincinnati will face off on Friday in a game with some of the biggest implications of the season. The winner of this game will host the AAC Championship next weekend, while the loser will likely be eliminated from contention.
Heading into Nippert Stadium to play the Bearcats is always difficult. This weekend, the Green Wave will have to travel there — and pick up a win — if they want a chance at the conference title.
Cincinnati has won 32 straight games at Nippert, which is the second-longest streak in the nation. Securing home-field advantage for a second weekend in a row will go a long way toward the Bearcats defending their conference crown.
The loser of this game will fall to a potential tie for second place in the AAC.
UCF and Houston are on the heels of both of these teams. If one or both of them win, they will be tied for second in the conference. If both lose, then we will have a rematch of Tulane-Cincinnati next weekend for the AAC Championship.
A two-way tie for second place would go to a head-to-head tiebreaker. UCF defeated both of these teams and would win the tiebreaker. Tulane defeated Houston, while the Cougars didn’t play Cincinnati. If there's a three-way tie, the tiebreaker would go to the highest-ranked team in the College Football Playoff rankings.
This game will be crucial in determining who wins the conference this year, but a key injury for Cincinnati may impact its chances. In what should be a physical battle between two tough defenses, this may have the feelings of an old-school football game.
Tulane Green Wave
Green Wave Offense
Passing the ball successfully will be key for Tulane. The Green Wave rank 24th in Passing PPA and 32nd in Passing Success Rate. However, they don’t have many big plays in this area, as they rank 74th in passing explosiveness.
This team does run the ball often. In fact, it runs at the 34th-highest rate in the country. Tulane ranks just 64th in Success Rate on the ground, but because of the explosiveness of this ground attack, it ranks 28th in Rushing PPA.
Cincinnati’s defense is strong in both facets of the game, so Tulane will need to find success anywhere it can in order to put some points on the board.
Green Wave Defense
Tulane’s defense has been solid overall, but it really shines at preventing explosive plays. The Green Wave rank 13th in passing explosiveness allowed, 21st against the run and 10th overall in explosiveness allowed.
This may make it hard for the Bearcats to keep up if they aren’t generating the normal down-to-down success they typically have. That's especially true with Cincinnati quarterback Ben Bryant listed as questionable after suffering an injury last week.
This defense ranks 61st overall in Success Rate, including 53rd against the run and 63rd through the air.
Tulane does have the fourth-best coverage unit in the country, per PFF, and it's graded as the 18th-best defense overall. SP+ is relatively high on this defense as well, ranking it 31st nationally.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Bearcats Offense
Cincinnati has been impressive yet again this year. It finds itself back in AAC Championship contention despite losing a ton of talent from last year’s College Football Playoff team.
Bryant has been leading the team this season, but the Bearcats may have to win this big game without him.
Bryant was injured in the second quarter against Temple last week, and his status for this week remains unknown. The fact that he was standing on the sideline with crutches and a walking boot doesn’t inspire confidence that he will participate.
If Bryant isn’t able to go, Evan Prater will likely be the replacement. Prater has not yet made a start in his career and had seen limited action up until Saturday.
Against Temple, the former four-star recruit went 12-of-17 for 127 yards. Prater also tacked on 24 yards on nine attempts on the ground in a 23-3 Bearcats victory.
As a whole, the Cincinnati offense has already struggled this year, ranking 66th overall, per SP+, and 88th in Offensive Success Rate.
They do most of their damage through the air, though, so the potential loss of Bryant may loom large. Cincinnati passes at the 21st-highest rate in the country and ranks 31st in Passing PPA, 35th in passing explosiveness and 54th in Passing Success Rate.
The running game has not helped the Bearcats out whatsoever. They sit 118th in Rushing Success Rate, 95th in Rushing PPA and 98th in explosiveness.
Cincinnati’s inefficiency in the run game is likely why it's leaned on its passing attack so heavily this year. If Bryant isn’t 100% or Prater can't replicate his explosiveness through the air, Cincinnati's offense may be in trouble.
Bearcats Defense
Defense is without a doubt the strength of this Cincinnati team. The Bearcats rank 13th in Defensive Success Rate, 15th in SP+ and grade out as the 11th-best defense, per PFF.
This pass rush is one of the better units in the country and has been a large part of their success. Cincinnati had the third highest-graded pass rush, according to PFF, and they rank 14th in Havoc.
The Bearcats rank 19th in Success Rate against the pass and 32nd in PPA. Their main weakness has been allowing big plays, as they rank 100th in passing explosiveness. Tulane isn’t a team that typically generates explosive passing plays, so that issue likely won’t arise in this matchup.
The Bearcats' run defense is strong in its own right, ranking 19th in Success Rate and 16th in PPA.
This Cincinnati rushing defense has the third-highest PFF rushing grade as well. It also comes in at 45th in rushing explosiveness, which will help it counter Tulane's explosive rushing offense.
Tulane vs Cincinnati Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulane and Cincinnati match up statistically:
Tulane Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 19 | |
| Line Yards | 68 | 23 | |
| Pass Success | 32 | 18 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 26 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 31 | 27 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 45 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Cincinnati Offense vs. Tulane Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 118 | 53 | |
| Line Yards | 61 | 99 | |
| Pass Success | 54 | 63 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 71 | 79 | |
| Havoc | 52 | 101 | |
| Finishing Drives | 82 | 64 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 30 | 34 |
| PFF Coverage | 5 | 62 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 77 | 16 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.8 (77) | 26.2 (57) |
| Rush Rate | 59.2% (26) | 48.0% (102) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Tulane vs Cincinnati Betting Pick
With or without Bryant, I see this being a tough and physical matchup between two talented teams. On both sides, the defenses have been stronger than their opponent's offense.
If Bryant doesn’t play at all or plays and isn’t 100%, the under becomes even more attractive and looks promising as long as Prater doesn’t turn out to be a revelation for the Bearcats.
Pick: Under 47 (Play to 45.5) |
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