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The UNLV Rebels take on the New Mexico Lobos in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EST on The CW.
New Mexico is favored by 14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -690. The total is set at 46.5 points.
Here’s my UNLV vs. New Mexico prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14, 2026.
UNLV vs New Mexico Prediction
- UNLV vs. New Mexico Pick: New Mexico -14.5
My New Mexico vs. UNLV best bet is on the Lobos. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UNLV vs New Mexico Odds
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | +500 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | -690 |
- UNLV vs New Mexico point spread: New Mexico -14.5 (-110), UNLV +14.5 (-110)
- UNLV vs New Mexico over/under: 46.5 (-115o / -105u)
- UNLV vs New Mexico moneyline: UNLV +500, New Mexico -690
UNLV vs New Mexico College Football Preview
Sheesh. What a season for Jaskon Eck and the New Mexico Lobos.
Led by linebacker Mercury Swaim (55 tackles), edge rusher Darren Agu (seven sacks, 24 QB hurries, 18 TFLs), and safety Austin Brawley (four INTs), the Lobos rank first nationally in Success Rate allowed and top-five in a host of other metrics.
They’ve held Mountain West opponents to just 12 points per game en route to a perfect 6-0 conference start. Their only loss this season: at Oklahoma, where they held the Sooners to just 14 points in Norman.
In steps UNLV, which is running Dan Mullen’s rush-heavy spread offense led by dual-action quarterback Jackson Arnold and top running back Jai’Den Thomas. The Rebels have done so with little success, ranking 100th nationally in EPA per Play and 105th in Success Rate.
Last week was gross. Although Thomas pieced together 96 yards and two scores on 16 carries, Arnold went 7-for-18 passing for 83 yards and was promptly benched for Alex Orji, who went 2-for-5 for 58 yards and a pick. It’s unclear who will start for the Rebels on Saturday.
Anyway, there’s no way the offense will move the rock on Saturday. I doubt the Rebels can run the ball into a New Mexico front that leads the nation in both Defensive Line Yards (1.8) and Stuff Rate (33%). And how are they supposed to throw the ball when they can't agree on which run-first quarterback to start?
New Mexico wants to run the ball (66% rush rate, sixth nationally) behind Scottre Humphrey and Kiefer Sibley, while quarterback Toa Fa’avae is plenty mobile — all three are averaging over five yards per carry and three yards after first contact.
I imagine they’ll have no issues establishing the run against UNLV’s super-soft front — the Rebels rank 130th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed (50%), 127th in Stuff Rate (14%), and second-to-last in Line Yards (3.6).
UNLV vs New Mexico Pick, Betting Analysis
I’m laying it with the Lobos.
David Sasser’s model projects New Mexico as a 21-point home favorite, and I believe that’s where this line should be.
Pick: New Mexico -14.5
