Wisconsin vs LSU Odds, Pick, Prediction: Expect Plenty of Points

It's time to take a look at the Wisconsin vs. LSU odds and make a ReliaQuest Bowl prediction for Monday.

Wisconsin and LSU meet in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, Florida, on New Year's Day.

Wisconsin had a very disappointing first year under head coach Luke Fickell, failing to win the Big Test West and finishing with a 7-5 record.

The Badgers have a lot of opt-outs among the skill positions for this game, but they're facing one of the worst defenses in the Power 5 this season.

LSU had an incredible year offensively, led by Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels. While the quarterback decided to opt out of this game, most of the Tigers' roster is still available, which is why they've remained heavy favorites.

Wisconsin's offense is built on running the football. However, star running back Braelon Allen has decided to opt out of this game, while fellow running back Chez Mellusi was lost to injury in the middle of the season.

That leaves Jackson Acker and Cade Yacamelli as the two backs remaining on the depth chart.

The good news for the Badgers is they still have their dominant offensive line intact. Wisconsin finished eighth in Offensive Line Yards and fourth in Stuff Rate Allowed.

The Badgers will also be facing one of the worst rush defenses in the country on Monday, so they should be able to run the ball with a lot of success.

Quarterback Tanner Mordecai did not have a good season for the Badgers. He averaged 6.1 yards per attempt, threw for six touchdowns and ranked 116th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/Pass.

Mordecai will be without a couple of receivers in this game, but his main target Will Pauling — who caught 66 passes this season — will suit up against LSU's poor secondary.

The Wisconsin defense did put up decent numbers, but that can partially be attributed to playing in the Big Ten West, which features a lot of really bad offenses. In fact, the only offense the Badgers faced that ranked inside the top 50 in EPA was Ohio State, which put up over 400 yards against them.

In terms of EPA, the average offensive rank Wisconsin faced this season was 90, so LSU will present a much different test.

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Daniels was the main reason LSU finished second overall in the country in Success Rate, but the drop from him to Garrett Nussmeier isn't as drastic as many would think.

Nussmeier was called into action in the SEC Championship last year when Daniels got hurt, and he had a great game against an incredible Georgia defense. He threw for 294 yards and 10.9 yards per attempt while registering five big-time throws.

Outside of Daniels, all of the normal starters on the LSU offense are going to play in this game. Star wideouts Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. — who combined for 146 catches, 2,625 yards and 29 touchdowns — will cause a lot of problems for Wisconsin's secondary.

Daniels was LSU's top rusher by a pretty wide margin, but running back Logan Diggs had a fantastic season. Diggs averaged 5.5 yards per carry and had the eighth-best EPA/Rush mark in college football.

The LSU offensive line was also a big part of the Tigers' success on the ground, ranking first in the nation in Offensive Line Yards and third in Stuff Rate Allowed. The Tigers should be able to run all over a very average Wisconsin rush defense.

The problem with backing LSU as a double-digit favorite is that its defense can't stop anything when it faces a decent offense. The Tigers are 121st in EPA/Play Allowed, 95th in Success Rate Allowed and 125th in Finishing Drives Allowed.

The biggest reason LSU has struggled on defense is because of its inability to stop teams on third downs. The Tigers are allowing teams to convert 46.9% of third downs, which ranks 124th in the nation.

They're also dead last in Power Success Rate Allowed, which measures the percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted a first down or scored a touchdown.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wisconsin and LSU match up statistically:

Wisconsin Offense vs. LSU Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	12	93
Line Yards	8	104
Pass Success	100	112
Havoc	16	70
Finishing Drives	57	125
Quality Drives	114	100

LSU Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	1	40
Line Yards	1	62
Pass Success	4	27
Havoc	4	60
Finishing Drives	7	12
Quality Drives	2	16

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	20	24
PFF Coverage	37	86
Special Teams SP+	18	68
Middle 8	50	2
Seconds per Play	24.7 (20)	26.9 (67)
Rush Rate	49.5% (95)	52.5% (79)

Wisconsin may not have all of its skill position players available, but its offensive line should be able to dominate up front and allow the Badgers to run the ball effectively against an LSU defense that finished 93rd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

Mordecai has been a below-average passer, but he will have his top target available and he's facing an already weak Tigers secondary without one of its starting cornerbacks.

With Daniels being the only opt-out for the LSU offense, it still should be able to move the ball against a Wisconsin defense that put up very average defensive numbers against an incredibly weak schedule of offenses.

Phil Longo also wants his Wisconsin offense to play fast. The Badgers ranked 20th in seconds per play, which should increase the tempo of this game with LSU also wanting to play at an above-average pace.

I have 65.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 55.5 points.

Pick: Over 55.5

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