Best NFL Prop Bets Today | Best NFL Player Props, First TD & Anytime TD Scorer Predictions (Sept 13)

Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season is finally here, and Sunday's slate is loaded with new coaches, new quarterbacks, and new backfields to trade around.

We rounded up 10 NFL player props from eight different games on Polymarket, spanning anytime touchdown scorers, passing touchdowns, and rushing and receiving yards.

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Best NFL Player Props for New Orleans vs Detroit – Jared Goff (2+ Passing TDs: Yes | 62.98¢)

‼️ The Pick: Jared Goff 2+ Passing Touchdowns | Yes | 62.98¢

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Goff opens his third straight season under a new offensive coordinator, with Drew Petzing now calling plays in Detroit after last year's in-season shuffle at the position.

Sam LaPorta is back at full health in the seam and Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the offense's clear focal point, giving Goff a steady, high-floor passing attack to lean on right out of the gate.

Detroit is a home favorite with one of the highest implied team totals on the Week 1 board, and New Orleans enters with a rebuilt secondary behind a rookie quarterback on the other side of the ball.

A $100 stake at 62.98¢ buys about 159 shares, for a gross payout near $158.80 and profit of roughly $58.80. The board's own To Win figure landed at $155.30, a touch under our math, which is normal here since larger orders move through the order book and pick up small fee drag along the way. That gap shows up on every ticket in this piece, so we won't re-explain it each time.

• If Goff throws multiple touchdowns: shares settle at $1 each for about $58.80 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

At close to a coin flip for a well-protected quarterback at home against a defense still finding its footing, this is one of the safer plays on the board.

Best NFL Prop Bets Today for Chicago vs Carolina – D'Andre Swift (60+ Rushing Yards: Yes | 53¢)

‼️ The Pick: D'Andre Swift 60+ Rushing Yards | Yes | 53¢

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Swift ran for a career-high 1,087 yards and nine touchdowns last season in Chicago's run-heavy attack, and he's been cleared as the clear RB1 for the opener after a minor cramping scare in practice.

Carolina's run defense ranked just 20th in the league a season ago, allowing 123.3 rushing yards per game, and gave up 100-yard rushing days to four different backs.

With Kyle Monangai also fully healthy behind him, Chicago has every incentive to establish the ground game early against a Panthers front that's still rebuilding.

A $100 buy at 53¢ comes out to about 189 shares, for a gross payout near $188.70 and profit of roughly $88.70. The board's To Win figure of $183.50 tracks with the usual order-book gap.

• If Swift clears 60 yards: shares pay $1 each for about $88.70 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

A slight favorite on a bell-cow back against a defense that struggled against the run all of last season is a straightforward way to attack this board.

Best NFL Player Props for Arizona vs Los Angeles Chargers – Justin Herbert (20+ Rushing Yards: Yes | 52¢)

‼️ The Pick: Justin Herbert 20+ Rushing Yards | Yes | 52¢

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New Chargers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel has emphasized quicker throws and keeping Herbert upright after he absorbed a career-high 54 sacks last season, which points toward somewhat less designed scrambling than in years past.

Even so, the Chargers are big home favorites over a rebuilding Arizona defense that ranked bottom-five in pressure rate a year ago, the kind of game script that tends to open up extra yards on broken plays.

Herbert is one carry away from 25,000 career passing yards and has shown he can pick up chunks on the ground when the pocket collapses, even in a more pass-first scheme.

A $100 stake at 52¢ buys about 192 shares, for a gross payout near $192.30 and profit of roughly $92.30. The board's To Win figure of $186.92 sits in that same familiar range.

• If Herbert clears 20 rushing yards: shares pay $1 each for about $92.30 in profit.
• If not: the $100 stake is gone.

A near coin-flip price on a quarterback who scrambles well against a defense that couldn't get home last year still offers fair value even in a more conservative scheme.

Best NFL Prop Bets Today for Baltimore vs Indianapolis – Rashod Bateman (25+ Receiving Yards: No | 51¢)

‼️ The Pick: Rashod Bateman 25+ Receiving Yards | No | 51¢

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Bateman is entering the season under real scrutiny after his worst statistical year as a pro, just 19 catches for 224 yards and two touchdowns across an injury-shortened 2025.

Indianapolis brings a retooled secondary featuring Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward, a unit that on paper looks considerably tougher than the group that struggled through last season.

Baltimore is also breaking in a new offensive coordinator in Declan Doyle, and Zay Flowers remains the clear first read in this passing game whenever he's healthy.

A $100 stake on the No side at 51¢ buys about 196 shares, for a gross payout near $196.10 and profit of roughly $96.10. The board's To Win figure of $190.47 tracks with the usual order-book gap.

• If Bateman stays under 25 receiving yards: shares pay $1 each for about $96.10 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If he clears the mark: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

Fading a receiver who's a clear WR2 behind Flowers against an upgraded secondary is a reasonable way to attack a market sitting almost exactly at a coin flip.

Best NFL Player Props for Tampa Bay vs Cincinnati – Baker Mayfield (2+ Passing TDs: Yes | 49¢) (Editor's Pick)

‼️ The Pick: Baker Mayfield 2+ Passing Touchdowns | Yes | 49¢

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This is the pick we're most excited about on this whole board, and it's the one we're putting real money on for Week 1.

Mayfield just signed a contract extension through 2029, and since taking over as Tampa Bay's starter in 2023 he's an eye-popping 3-0 in Week One openers with nine touchdown passes, zero interceptions, and a 114.5 passer rating.

Cincinnati's defense allowed 235.1 passing yards per game a year ago, and while the Bengals added pass-rush help this offseason, most analysts expect this game to play out as a high-scoring shootout on the road.

Both sides are expected to trade scores early, and a quarterback with this track record of hot Week 1 starts deserves better than a coin-flip price on multiple touchdowns.

A $100 buy at 49¢ comes out to about 204 shares, for a gross payout near $204.10 and profit of roughly $104.10. The board's To Win figure of $198.02 sits in the same range we've seen throughout this board.

• If Mayfield throws multiple touchdowns: shares settle at $1 each for about $104.10 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

A quarterback with a perfect Week 1 track record, priced under a coin flip in a game many expect to turn into a shootout, is the shape of trade we like making on opening weekend.

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Best NFL Prop Bets Today for New Orleans vs Detroit – Devaughn Vele (40+ Receiving Yards: No | 48¢)

‼️ The Pick: Devaughn Vele 40+ Receiving Yards | No | 48¢

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Vele returns from missing the final stretch of 2025, but he still slots in as New Orleans's clear WR2 behind Chris Olave, who commanded a 27.9% target share last season.

The Saints are also down first-round rookie Jordyn Tyson this week, which could redistribute some looks, but Detroit's defense is the far bigger obstacle for a rebuilding New Orleans passing game on the road.

Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough had strong red-zone efficiency in his starts last year but posted a low overall red-zone dropback volume, another mark against a big receiving day for anyone behind Olave.

A $100 stake on the No side at 48¢ buys about 208 shares, for a gross payout near $208.30 and profit of roughly $108.30. The board's To Win figure of $202.02 sits in that same range we've seen throughout this board.

• If Vele stays under 40 receiving yards: shares pay $1 each for about $108.30 in profit.
• If he clears the mark: the $100 stake is lost.

Fading the clear second option in a run-first passing game on the road against a good defense is a sensible lean even at a near coin-flip price.

Anytime TD Scorer Predictions for Buffalo vs Houston – Josh Allen (Anytime TD: Yes | 42¢)

‼️ The Pick: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown | Yes | 42¢

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Allen and the Bills open the season on the road in a building that has historically not been kind to him, but Buffalo still returns the NFL's top rushing offense from a season ago.

James Cook comes off a rushing title, and Allen himself remains one of the league's most reliable goal-line runners on an offense that led the NFL in scoring efficiency near the end zone.

Houston's defense was the best in football last year by yards allowed, which explains why this price sits meaningfully below a coin flip even for a player of Allen's caliber.

A $100 buy at 42¢ comes out to about 238 shares, for a gross payout near $238.10 and profit of roughly $138.10. The board's To Win figure of $230.09 tracks with the usual gap.

• If Allen scores: shares pay $1 each for about $138.10 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost outright.

Better than 2-to-1 on a quarterback who scores as often as Allen does near the goal line, even against the league's stingiest defense, is a fair price to take a swing at.

Anytime TD Scorer Predictions for Atlanta vs Pittsburgh – Rico Dowdle (Anytime TD: Yes | 41¢)

‼️ The Pick: Rico Dowdle Anytime Touchdown | Yes | 41¢

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Dowdle arrives in Pittsburgh after joining the Steelers from Carolina this offseason, and he's expected to work alongside Jaylen Warren in Mike McCarthy's regular-season debut as head coach.

Atlanta is breaking in new head coach Kevin Stefanski and a still-undecided starting quarterback, which could keep the Falcons' offense on the field longer than the Steelers would like, cutting into short-yardage opportunities.

Still, Pittsburgh's coaching staff has signaled it wants to establish the run early behind a physical offensive line, and goal-line work is often split between backs on new-look staffs finding their identity.

A $100 stake at 41¢ buys about 244 shares, for a gross payout near $243.90 and profit of roughly $143.90. The board's To Win figure of $235.56 sits in that same range we've seen throughout this board.

• If Dowdle scores: shares pay $1 each for about $143.90 in profit.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

Splitting goal-line work in a new coaching staff's debut game makes this a real coin-flip trade, priced just about where it should be.

Anytime TD Scorer Predictions for Baltimore vs Indianapolis – Lamar Jackson (Anytime TD: Yes | 26¢)

‼️ The Pick: Lamar Jackson Anytime Touchdown | Yes | 26¢

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Jackson is working under a new offensive coordinator in Declan Doyle, who has already said he wants Jackson running more designed plays under center than in years past.

Jackson was blitzed at the highest rate of any regular starter last season and still posted a 114.0 passer rating against pressure, numbers that suggest the Colts' aggressive defensive approach may not slow him down as much as they'd hope.

Indianapolis added Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward to a defense that still finished with a middling pass-rush profile, leaving a real rushing lane for a quarterback of Jackson's caliber near the goal line.

A $100 stake at 26¢ buys about 385 shares, for a gross payout near $384.60 and profit of roughly $284.60. The board's To Win figure of $368.26 tracks with the usual order-book gap.

• If Jackson scores: shares pay $1 each for about $284.60 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost.

Better than 3.5-to-1 on a quarterback who has historically converted designed runs into goal-line scores is a fair price against a defense still finding its pass-rush identity.

Anytime TD Scorer Predictions for Miami vs Las Vegas – Malik Washington (Anytime TD: Yes | 18.99¢)

‼️ The Pick: Malik Washington Anytime Touchdown | Yes | 18.99¢

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Washington enters the season as Miami's clear top receiving option now that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both gone, with early Week 1 projections pegging him as the Dolphins' leading receiver against Las Vegas.

Miami is breaking in first-year head coach Jeff Hafley and quarterback Malik Willis behind the NFL's youngest roster, a green group that will need to lean on its most established playmaker in the red zone.

Las Vegas is favored at home and expected to keep the game largely in front of them, which caps the upside here, but Washington has already flashed a red-zone role by scoring on a short touchdown target in the preseason.

A $100 buy at 18.99¢ comes out to about 527 shares, for a gross payout near $526.60 and profit of roughly $426.60. The board's To Win figure of $502.21 sits a little under that, consistent with the pattern here.

• If Washington scores: shares pay $1 each for about $426.60 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost outright.

The longest price on this board reflects Miami's underdog role and a green roster, but Washington's clear-cut WR1 status gives this a live long shot with real upside.

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Best NFL Prop Bets Today: Final Thoughts

Eight different games, ten different storylines, but the common thread across this board is new coaching staffs and shuffled depth charts driving these prices as much as raw talent.

Established stars like Goff, Allen, and Jackson are priced around new schemes and revamped units on both sides of the ball, while roster overhauls in Miami and Buffalo's road trip to Houston add extra uncertainty to two of the board's longer prices.

These NFL player props will keep moving right up to kickoff, so check the live board on Polymarket's prediction markets before you trade.

Best NFL Prop Bets Today FAQs

What is the current Polymarket promo code?

The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10.

Which pick on this board is the Editor's Pick?

Our featured trade for Week 1 is Baker Mayfield to throw multiple touchdowns against the Bengals at 49¢, based on his perfect 3-0 track record in Week One openers as Tampa Bay's starter.

Which player on this list has the cheapest anytime touchdown contract?

Malik Washington carries the lowest price on this board at 18.99¢ to score a touchdown against the Raiders, reflecting Miami's underdog role and a young, unproven roster.

Which player is most heavily favored among these NFL player props?

Jared Goff carries the highest Yes price on this board at 62.98¢ to throw multiple touchdowns, reflecting Detroit's home favorite status and a healthy receiving corps.

How do Polymarket anytime touchdown contracts work?

Each contract resolves Yes if the named player scores at least one touchdown in that game, and No if they don't, with the contract settling at $1 per share for the winning side and $0 for the losing side.

How do I use the Polymarket promo code?

Sign up through the link on this page, make a qualifying deposit of at least $10, and the ACTION promo code will apply automatically to credit your $50 trading bonus.

When do these NFL player prop contracts resolve?

Each of these contracts resolves at the conclusion of its respective Week 1 game, once the final box score is official.

Are these the only NFL player props available on Polymarket this week?

No, Polymarket lists anytime touchdown, passing, rushing, and receiving markets across the full Week 1 slate beyond the ten picks covered in this piece.