Best NFL Prop Bets Today | Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction: Best NFL Player Props, Anytime TD Scorer (MNF Best Bets)

Monday Night Football opens the 2026 season with a rematch nobody in Kansas City wanted to see this soon.

Denver rides in as the reigning AFC West champion, having snapped the Chiefs' nine-year divisional stranglehold last year with a 14-3 record and the No. 1 seed.

Kansas City, meanwhile, is banking on a healthy Patrick Mahomes to erase memories of a 6-11 season that ended with him on the sideline with a torn ACL.

We've built out the best NFL prop bets today across this AFC West opener, from the Money Line down to the deepest touchdown-scorer market on the board.

This is shaping up as one of the more layered MNF best bets slates of the young season.

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Best NFL Player Props for Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction Markets: MNF Best Bets

We're putting real money on five contracts tonight, ranked from most to least likely to cash.

These are the best NFL player props on the board once you weigh price against what we're seeing from both rosters heading into Week 1.

Best Receiving Yards Pick Today – Courtland Sutton (Editor's Pick)

‼️ The Pick: Courtland Sutton 40+ Receiving Yards | Yes | 55¢

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We're buying Sutton over 40 receiving yards at 55¢, and it's the safest of our five plays tonight.

Denver traded a first, a third, and a fourth-round swap for Jaylen Waddle this offseason, but Sutton is still the incumbent No. 1 who led the Broncos in targets during their 14-3 run last year.

Kansas City's secondary lost two-time All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie in a trade to the Rams, leaving a rookie in Mansoor Delane to soak up a heavier workload in his first career start.

That's exactly the matchup Sutton profits from, whether Denver leans on him early to establish rhythm or spreads it out later with Waddle drawing extra attention.

Here's the ticket mechanics: a $100 buy at an average price of 55¢ gets us roughly 182 shares (Amount ÷ Avg Price), each worth $1 on a winning resolution, though Polymarket's board lists our actual To Win figure at $177.03 rather than the full $181.82.

That small gap between the share math and the platform's stated payout is normal, it reflects order book depth and fees rather than an error, and we won't re-explain it on every pick below.

• If Sutton clears 40 receiving yards: we cash $177.03, a profit of $77.03 on our $100 stake.
• If he falls short: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

At better than even-money on a proven No. 1 receiver against a patchwork secondary, this is our highest-floor play of the night.

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Best Passing Yards Pick Today – Patrick Mahomes (Editor's Pick)

‼️ The Pick: Patrick Mahomes 225+ Passing Yards | Yes | 50¢

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A coin-flip price on Mahomes clearing 225 yards feels generous for his first live action in roughly nine months since ACL and LCL surgery.

Mahomes said this week he's built up the strength to "be himself" again, and Andy Reid has had all offseason to script a return that leans on quick, high-volume throws rather than live-arm heroics.

Denver's defense will make him earn it, this is the same unit that helped end Kansas City's playoff hopes last season, but game-script logic favors a lot of dropbacks if the Chiefs fall behind early.

A $100 buy at 50¢ gets roughly 200 shares, with Polymarket's board listing our To Win figure at $194.18.

• If Mahomes throws for 225-plus yards: we cash $194.18, a profit of $94.18.
• If he falls short: the $100 stake is gone.

This is close to a straight coin flip, so we're treating it as a value add-on rather than a stake-heavy anchor.

Best Anytime TD Scorer Prop Today – J.K. Dobbins (Editor's Pick)

‼️ The Pick: J.K. Dobbins Anytime Touchdown | Yes | 34¢

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Dobbins sits atop Denver's depth chart over rookie RJ Harvey, and 34¢ undervalues a lead back who gets goal-line work in what should be a competitive, high-scoring divisional game.

Kansas City's run defense took a step back this offseason after losing pieces on the interior, and Dobbins has the juice to hit paydirt on either a designed carry or a checkdown near the goal line.

A $100 buy at 34¢ gets roughly 294 shares, with the board listing our To Win figure at $282.91.

• If Dobbins scores any touchdown: we cash $282.91, a profit of $182.91.
• If he doesn't find the end zone: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

Just over 3x on a lead back in a game we expect to stay close is the kind of risk-reward shape we like on a Monday night.

Best Anytime TD Scorer Prop Today – Xavier Worthy (Editor's Pick)

‼️ The Pick: Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdown | Yes | 21¢

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Worthy's speed is still the single biggest explosive-play threat on either roster, and a rebuilt, ACL-limited Mahomes may lean on him early to manufacture easy yards downfield.

Kansas City lost its top outside corner this offseason, which is precisely the matchup a field-stretching receiver like Worthy wants on a Monday night.

A $100 buy at 21¢ gets roughly 476 shares, with the board's To Win figure at $454.61.

• If Worthy scores: we cash $454.61, a profit of $354.61.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost.

This is a true longshot swing, more than 4.5x on our stake, and we're treating it as exactly that rather than a confident lean.

Best First TD Scorer Prop Today – Kenneth Walker III (Editor's Pick)

‼️ The Pick: Kenneth Walker III First Touchdown | Yes | 14¢

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Walker signed with Kansas City in free agency to finally give the Chiefs an every-down back, and Andy Reid loves to feature a new weapon early to establish the ground game.

He'll draw a tough opening matchup against a Denver front that allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs a year ago, but scoring the game's very first touchdown only requires one early red-zone look to go his way.

A $100 buy at 14¢ gets roughly 714 shares, with the board's To Win figure at $679.21.

• If Walker scores the first touchdown of the game: we cash $679.21, a profit of $579.21.
• If anyone else scores first, or if no touchdown is scored before Walker's: the $100 stake is lost.

Nearly 7x on our stake for a true lottery-ticket outcome, this is our smallest-confidence, highest-payout swing of the night.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds: Polymarket Money Line Contracts

A Money Line contract simply pays out $1 per share if your side wins the game outright, with the current price reflecting the market's implied win probability.

Polymarket has this one shaping up as a near-toss-up on paper, but the two sides carry very different resumes into kickoff.

Denver Broncos (46%, Yes 46¢)

Denver is the more proven team on paper, coming off a 14-3 season and an AFC West title, but the market still treats a road trip to Arrowhead as a genuine coin-flip underdog spot.

Kansas City Chiefs (55%, Yes 55¢)

The Chiefs get a slight home-field bump largely because Mahomes is back under center, even though this same Denver defense is a big reason Kansas City missed the playoffs at 6-11 last season.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Spread and Total Predictions

Beyond the Money Line, Polymarket also books the Total and Spread as their own binary Yes/No contracts.

Total: Over 42.5 Points (53%, Yes 53¢)

A 53% lean toward the over lines up with a game featuring two aggressive offenses and two defenses that spent the offseason retooling rather than standing pat.

Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 Spread (52%, Yes 52¢)

The market gives Kansas City a slight edge to win outright by more than a point and a half, though the number is thin enough that either side's Money Line contract could easily outperform it.

Anytime TD Scorer Predictions for Broncos vs. Chiefs

This is the widest market on the board, and these anytime TD scorer predictions cover essentially every skill player with a realistic shot at the end zone tonight.

• Kenneth Walker III (Anytime TD: Yes 52%, No 49%): the new lead back in Kansas City is priced as the board's most likely scorer, reflecting his expected workload in Reid's offense.
• Rashee Rice (Anytime TD: Yes 36%, No 65%): still Mahomes' most trusted target inside the red zone even with Worthy and Kelce also in the mix.
• J.K. Dobbins (Anytime TD: Yes 34%, No 67%): our Editor's Pick above, priced as Denver's most likely scorer at lead back.
• Travis Kelce (Anytime TD: Yes 31%, No 70%): the veteran tight end remains a high-value red-zone target even in what may be his final season.
• Jaylen Waddle (Anytime TD: Yes 31%, No 70%): Denver's new No. 1A receiver carries real touchdown equity in his first game with the Broncos.
• Courtland Sutton (Anytime TD: Yes 28%, No 73%): our Receiving Yards Editor's Pick above also has real scoring equity as Denver's other outside option.
• RJ Harvey (Anytime TD: Yes 23%, No 78%): the rookie change-of-pace back offers touchdown equity in shorter-yardage or two-minute packages.
• Xavier Worthy (Anytime TD: Yes 21%, No 80%): our other Editor's Pick above, a field-stretcher whose price reflects big-play upside more than target volume.
• Bo Nix (Anytime TD: Yes 15%, No 86%): Denver's quarterback carries real rushing touchdown equity given his willingness to scramble near the goal line.
• Patrick Mahomes (Anytime TD: Yes 12%, No 89%): a limited-mobility Mahomes coming off knee surgery is unlikely to add rushing scores tonight, capping his price here.
• Marvin Mims Jr. (Anytime TD: Yes 12%, No 89%): a change-of-pace slot option behind Denver's top three targets.
• Cyrus Allen (Anytime TD: Yes 9%, No 92%): a depth option with a longshot path to the end zone.
• Troy Franklin (Anytime TD: Yes 7%, No 94%): buried on Denver's target chart behind Sutton and Waddle, capping his upside here.

Best First TD Scorer Prop Today for Broncos vs. Chiefs

First TD Scorer is a narrower sibling of the anytime market above, since it requires a specific player to score the game's very first touchdown rather than any touchdown at any point.

• Kenneth Walker III (First TD: Yes 14%, No 87%): our Editor's Pick above, priced as the field's clear favorite to open the scoring.
• J.K. Dobbins (First TD: Yes 9%, No 92%): a real threat to strike first given Denver's tendency to lean run early on the road.
• Rashee Rice (First TD: Yes 8%, No 93%): Mahomes' top red-zone target carries real equity to open the scoring.
• Travis Kelce (First TD: Yes 8%, No 93%): a classic early-drive red-zone look for Kansas City.
• Jaylen Waddle (First TD: Yes 7%, No 94%): live in his Denver debut if the Broncos script an early shot play.
• RJ Harvey (First TD: Yes 6%, No 95%): would need an early short-yardage look to strike first.
• Courtland Sutton (First TD: Yes 6%, No 95%): live but behind Denver's backfield options to open the game.
• Pat Bryant (First TD: Yes 5%, No 96%): a longshot rookie option on Denver's depth chart.
• Xavier Worthy (First TD: Yes 5%, No 96%): would require an early deep connection with Mahomes.
• Evan Engram (First TD: Yes 4%, No 97%): a red-zone tight end option for Kansas City if the Chiefs script an early look his way.
• Bo Nix (First TD: Yes 4%, No 97%): would need an early scramble near the goal line.
• Marvin Mims Jr. (First TD: Yes 4%, No 97%): a deep longshot behind Denver's top pass-catchers.
• Cyrus Allen (First TD: Yes 3%, No 98%): priced as a true depth-chart longshot.
• Jonah Coleman (First TD: Yes 3%, No 98%): Denver's No. 3 running back, unlikely to see early goal-line work.
• Patrick Mahomes (First TD: Yes 3%, No 98%): a limited-mobility longshot given his recovery from knee surgery.
• Emmett Johnson (First TD: Yes 3%, No 98%): a deep Kansas City backfield option.
• Lil'Jordan Humphrey (First TD: Yes 3%, No 98%): a depth receiving option on Denver's roster.
• Tyquan Thornton (First TD: Yes 3%, No 98%): a depth receiving option on Kansas City's roster.
• No Touchdown Scored First (Yes 3%, No 99%): the board's small allowance for a scoreless opening stretch.
• Troy Franklin (First TD: Yes 2%, No 99%): buried behind Denver's top options to open the game.
• Noah Gray (First TD: Yes 2%, No 99%): Kansas City's second tight end, a true longshot here.
• Jalen Royals (First TD: Yes 2%, No 99%): a depth receiving longshot for Kansas City.
• Jake Briningstool (First TD: Yes 2%, No 99%): a third tight end option for Kansas City.
• Brashard Smith (First TD: Yes 2%, No 99%): a depth backfield longshot for Kansas City.
• Justin Fields (First TD: Yes 2%, No 99%): priced purely on the small chance he sees the field at all behind Mahomes.
• Adam Trautman (First TD: Yes 2%, No 99%): Denver's second tight end, a true longshot here.

Passing Touchdowns and Passing Yards Props

Both starting quarterbacks are priced on the same two thresholds tonight, a clean side-by-side look at how the market views each passing attack.

• Patrick Mahomes (2+ Passing TDs: Yes 44%, No 57%): a fair number for a QB who hasn't played a live snap in nine months but still has Rice, Kelce, and Worthy at his disposal.
• Bo Nix (2+ Passing TDs: Yes 41%, No 60%): Denver's second-year starter now has two legitimate No. 1 options in Sutton and Waddle to spread the ball to.
• Patrick Mahomes (225+ Passing Yards: Yes 50%, No 51%): our Editor's Pick above, priced as a true coin flip in his return.
• Bo Nix (225+ Passing Yards: Yes 50%, No 51%): also a coin flip, with volume likely to climb if Denver has to throw to keep pace on the road.

Rushing Yards Props for Broncos vs. Chiefs

Both backfields carry real early-season uncertainty, which shows up in a tightly bunched set of prices across the board.

• Kenneth Walker III (60+ Rushing Yards: Yes 57%, No 44%): priced as the board's likeliest rusher to hit his number despite a tough Denver front to open his Chiefs tenure.
• J.K. Dobbins (50+ Rushing Yards: Yes 52%, No 49%): our Anytime TD Editor's Pick above also profiles as Denver's clear early-down workhorse.
• Patrick Mahomes (15+ Rushing Yards: Yes 50%, No 51%): a fair coin flip given how cautious Kansas City figures to be with him near contact this early in his recovery.
• Bo Nix (20+ Rushing Yards: Yes 44%, No 57%): Nix's scrambling ability keeps this number live even in a pass-heavy road script.
• Justin Fields (10+ Rushing Yards: Yes 47%, No 75%): priced almost entirely on whether the mobile backup sees the field behind Mahomes at all.
• RJ Harvey (25+ Rushing Yards: Yes 37%, No 64%): the change-of-pace role likely caps his ceiling behind Dobbins as the early-down lead.

Receiving Yards Props for Broncos vs. Chiefs

This is the deepest receiving board of the night given how many legitimate options both offenses can turn to.

• Courtland Sutton (40+ Receiving Yards: Yes 55%, No 46%): our top Editor's Pick above, still Denver's most trusted possession target even after the Waddle trade.
• Xavier Worthy (35+ Receiving Yards: Yes 54%, No 47%): our other Editor's Pick above at a lower threshold, priced as a near coin flip to hit.
• Rashee Rice (50+ Receiving Yards: Yes 54%, No 47%): Mahomes' top target carries the highest yardage threshold of the group and still clears half.
• Travis Kelce (40+ Receiving Yards: Yes 52%, No 49%): the veteran tight end remains a high-floor safety valve for a rusty Mahomes.
• Kenneth Walker III (20+ Receiving Yards: Yes 52%, No 50%): priced as a real factor in the passing game, not just as a runner.
• Jaylen Waddle (60+ Receiving Yards: Yes 48%, No 53%): his higher threshold reflects true field-stretching upside in his Denver debut.
• RJ Harvey (20+ Receiving Yards: Yes 38%, No 64%): a change-of-pace receiving role that likely caps his yardage behind Denver's top options.

Fantasy Points (PPR) Props for Broncos vs. Chiefs

These PPR fantasy contracts blend every stat category into one number, and the thresholds vary widely by role.

• Bo Nix (16+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 66%, No 35%): the highest-priced player on the board, reflecting quarterback scoring volume plus his added rushing equity.
• Jaylen Waddle (12+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 58%, No 43%): a strong number for a receiver making his Denver debut.
• J.K. Dobbins (8+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 57%, No 44%): our Editor's Pick above clears a modest bar easily given his workload.
• RJ Harvey (10+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 57%, No 44%): touchdown or big-play equity in a limited role can get him there.
• Courtland Sutton (10+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 56%, No 45%): a low bar for our top Editor's Pick above given his target volume.
• Patrick Mahomes (16+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 51%, No 51%): priced as a coin flip in his return, in line with his passing-yardage number above.
• Kenneth Walker III (15+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 49%, No 52%): tough matchup against Denver's run defense keeps this closer to even money.
• Xavier Worthy (8+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 46%, No 55%): a low bar that still leans slightly against him given target competition.
• Travis Kelce (10+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 45%, No 56%): a modest number for the veteran tight end in what may be his final season.
• Rashee Rice (18+ Fantasy Points PPR: Yes 44%, No 56%): the highest threshold in the group, requiring a big game from Mahomes' top target.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Price Analysis: What's Moving the Market

The biggest swing on the board is Mahomes himself, priced as a near coin flip on yardage and touchdowns despite two-time MVP pedigree.

That's the clearest signal in this whole set of best NFL prop bets today, the market simply doesn't know what a knee-limited Mahomes looks like on snap one.

On the other side, Denver's offseason additions are already baked into the pricing, Waddle and Sutton both carry real touchdown equity, and Dobbins is priced as the board's most trusted Broncos rusher over the rookie Harvey.

Kenneth Walker III's price across every category reflects a talented back walking into a tougher offensive line and a nasty Week 1 matchup against Denver's run defense.

Layering these numbers together is what makes the best NFL player props stand out from a standard sportsbook line, especially in the anytime TD scorer predictions above where five or six players all carry a live path to the end zone.

That range of outcomes is exactly why MNF best bets tend to reward touchdown-scorer boards over a single-number spread.

If you want a deeper primer on how these contracts price in real time, Action Network's prediction markets app is a useful way to track live order book movement before you trade.

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Broncos vs. Chiefs: Final Thoughts on Tonight's MNF Best Bets

Denver walks in with the better resume, a healthier roster, and a defense that's already given Kansas City fits, but Mahomes' return adds real unpredictability to every number on this board.

Our strongest conviction sits with Sutton and Dobbins, both proven roles on a Broncos offense that added talent rather than subtracting it this offseason.

That mix of proven veterans and new arrivals is what makes tonight's best NFL player props worth a deeper look beyond the box score.

If you're building your own slate of MNF best bets, the touchdown-scorer markets above offer the widest range of prices to find an edge, and Action Network's full prediction markets hub is worth bookmarking for the rest of the season.

Polymarket Promo Code FAQs

What is the current Polymarket promo code?

The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which new users can apply when signing up to unlock a $50 trading bonus.

What are the best NFL prop bets today for Broncos vs. Chiefs?

The top-ranked plays are Courtland Sutton over 40 receiving yards, Patrick Mahomes over 225 passing yards, J.K. Dobbins anytime touchdown, Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown, and Kenneth Walker III to score the game's first touchdown.

Which best NFL player props stand out for Mahomes' return?

Mahomes' passing yardage and touchdown props are both priced close to a coin flip, reflecting real uncertainty about how he looks in his first live action since knee surgery.

Who is favored in Broncos vs. Chiefs?

Kansas City is a slight favorite on the Money Line at 55%, with the Spread market pricing the Chiefs to win by more than 1.5 points at 52%.

Which Anytime TD Scorer predictions carry the best value tonight?

Kenneth Walker III leads the anytime TD scorer predictions at 52%, followed by Rashee Rice and J.K. Dobbins, both of whom carry real value relative to their price.

How do Polymarket prediction market contracts work?

Each contract resolves to either $1 or $0 per share depending on the outcome, and the price paid reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome happening.

When does this Broncos vs. Chiefs market resolve?

The market resolves once the game reaches its final result, with prop contracts settling based on official NFL statistics for that game.

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