Chargers vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Predictions - November 16, 2025

Projecting this closer to 13.4 with around a 61% chance he stays under 14.5

JAX run defense has been great: • 3rd fewest RB rush yds/game allowed • 2nd lowest rush play% allowed • HIGHEST pass rate over expectation allowed They’ve been a pass funnel so far, and have allowed 5/L6 QBs over their pass yards: ✅ Davis Mills 292 ✅ Geno Smith 284 ❌ Matt Stafford 182 ✅ Sam Darnold 295 ✅ Pat Mahomes 318 ✅ Brock Purdy 309 Herbert’s pass attempts line is 35.5, when he’s thrown the ball 34+ times, he has 264+ pass yards in 8/L10 games. The main concern with LAC is their O-Line (the worst in the NFL currently) but they may get an upgrade at LT this week as Trevor Penning (who they traded for) was practicing this week. JAX also ranks 10th worst in pressure%

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Travis Etienne under 14.5 rush att (-105 at BetMGM) Etienne has averaged 14.6 rush attempts per game, so this line is in line with his season-long average, but I think there's several reasons to back the under here. First, the Jaguars are 2.5-point underdogs, yet they are 5-4 and the average win probability of any offensive play they've run has been 52%, including 53% in the second half. As underdogs, that should flip to around 45-47% projected win probability per play, which would force a slightly more pass happy game script. Second, the Chargers are the No. 1 team in terms of time of possession at 33:35 min poss/60 min, while the Jags sit seventh at 31:26. That means we can expect Jacksonville to have around5-10% less possession than normal, which would reduce Etienne's carry expectation by half to one whole attempt. Finally, the matchup is an interesting one. The Jaguars project around a 2.5-3% lower early down success rate then they've had over their previous six games, which should leave a few more passing situations as well. And when Etienne does run, he could hit a few more explosives, as the Jaguars run game projects for more than two full percentage points above their normal explosive run rate against a Chargers D that allows high YPC to the outsides. So what Etienne might do in 2-3 carries he could do in one carry at a slightly higher frequency. Etienne has averaged 12.5 carries in four losses, despite one of those losses coming with a massive game script advantage last week in Houston's epic 19-point come from behind win in the second half. All together, I'm getting closer to 13.5 carries for Etienne which would keep him under 14.5 carries just over 60% of the time.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

6.6% ev play to -114

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@KendraMiddleton_ https://myaction.app/6S8Oz4TJgYb

Don’t take Jags spread

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