We have you covered with a total of eight NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 11.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Chargers vs Jaguars, Bengals vs Steelers among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have picks for later in the day for Seahawks vs Rams and 49ers vs Cardinals. We also have bets for Giants vs Packers, Panthers vs Falcons and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 11 of the NFL season on November 16.
NFL Player Props Week 11
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Chargers vs. Jaguars
Keenan Allen Under 4.5 Receptions (-140)
This one has plenty of juice, so I'm risking just one unit on it. I expect the 4.5s to dry up by the time we get to kickoff.
The Chargers have diminished Keenan Allen's role over the past three games.
After posting a team-leading 22.9% target share and a 73.2% route rate through Week 7, Allen has been down to 16.1% and 54%, respectively.
Oronde Gadsden II has stepped into a bigger role, and we saw Quentin Johnston scoop up some of the short-area targets last week that are usually reserved for Allen.
Allen actually has the highest average depth of target (10.7) on the team over the past three games (minimum 10 routes).
A double-digit aDOT isn't conducive to receiving volume.
Pick: Keenan Allen Under 4.5 Receptions (-140)
Bengals vs. Steelers
Tee Higgins Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
By Chris Prince
While we may have some high winds in this game, it's not enough to get me off of this play.
In four games with Joe Flacco, Tee Higgins has gone over this number thrice, including 96 yards against Pittsburgh back in Week 7.
Cincy is a 5.5-point underdog, so it is likely going to be throwing a ton, and the Bengals' target tree is one of the most condensed in the league.
The Steelers have struggled big time with opposing wide receivers, giving up a league-worst 194.1 receiving yards per game to the position, and they have allowed three of their past four opponents to throw for at least 313 yards.
Pick: Tee Higgins Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Packers vs. Giants
Wan'Dale Robinson Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
By Charlie Wright
This is suddenly a phenomenal spot for Wan'Dale Robinson. He's been the Giants' primary receiver since Malik Nabers went down, but it hasn't translated into a ton of production.
The Giants are now expected to be without Darius Slayton today. Robinson has posted 12 catches on 19 targets for 179 yards in two games without both Nabers and Slayton.
Jaxson Dart is also expected to be out, opening the door for Jameis Winston to draw the start under center.
Removing Dart's scrambling should increase the Giants' passing volume. They're also touchdown underdogs.
Pick: Wan'Dale Robinson Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Panthers vs. Falcons
Bryce Young Under 164.5 Passing Yards (-115)
By Charlie Wright
I'm going right back to this play after we cashed easily last week.
Despite the Panthers playing from behind, Bryce Young only finished with 25 attempts, compared to 21 carries between Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard.
Now, the Panthers face a defense that has allowed the fewest passing yards per game.
I'm expecting another heavy dose of the running backs for Carolina this week.
Pick: Bryce Young Under 164.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Bengals vs. Steelers
Pat Freiermuth Anytime TD (+240)
By Charlie Wright
The Bengals have allowed an absurd 12 touchdowns to tight ends this season.
That obviously leads the league by a mile. The Jets, Jaguars and Dolphins are tied for second at seven touchdowns allowed to the position.
The Bengals are basically lapping the league. Pittsburgh had a lot to do with that, as Pat Freiermuth (twice), Darnell Washington, and Jonnu Smith all scored in their Week 7 matchup.
My plan is to bet a half-unit on all three guys.
Freiermuth leads the group in touchdowns, Smith has the edge in routes and Washington has the most red-zone targets.
There's really not much separating them in terms of overall TD opportunities, and their odds are relatively close to each other.
At such steep price tags, one score from the group will pay for all of the bets.
If they go nuts again like last time, we're looking at a big day.
Pick: Pat Freiermuth Anytime TD (+240)
Seahawks vs. Rams
Kyren Williams Anytime TD (+115)
I know this matchup is tough, but I really don't care when I'm getting plus odds on Kyren Williams.
Williams has a massive role in the red zone for the Rams and he gets the lion's share of the carries when the game is close.
The total in this game is high (48.5), so the Rams should be able to put up some points against this tough Seattle defense.
I have Williams at over a 50% chance to score, making this a great bet at plus odds.
Pick: Kyren Williams Anytime TD (+115)
49ers vs. Cardinals
Jauan Jennings Anytime TD (+240)
By Grant Neiffer
While Mac Jones has filled in admirably this season for the 49ers, Brock Purdy returning should be an upgrade for Jauan Jennings.
Jennings has been good this season and the go-to guy when healthy. He has a TD in each of the last two games, and this matchup isn't bad.
I have the true odds here around +200, making this a great bet.
Pick: Jauan Jennings Anytime TD (+240)
Ravens vs. Browns
Dillon Gabriel Under 0.5 Passing TDs (+160)
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Gabriel's TD passes prop.
THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.01 TD passes, while the sportsbooks are implying 1.24.
The model believes there is a 53% chance he records fewer than 0.5 TD passes, so there is some value on the under at +160.
This play is good down to at least +118.
