Browns vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - October 26, 2025

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

I discussed this one on the Fantasy Flex Projections Pod right after talking up Oronde Gadsden/prop in the “high on” section, and it’s a spot where the matchup really tilts against Henry. The Browns play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and Henry’s yards per route run drops from 2.02 vs. zone (2nd-highest on the team) down to 0.78 vs. man (6th on the team). That’s a pretty typical split for tight ends, and Cleveland has done a strong job limiting production from the position (specifically the team’s #1 TE). We’ve also seen Henry’s 1st-read and target share crater over the last 4 games. It should bounce back a bit, but it makes sense that Drake Maye has been developing more chemistry with his new WRs (especially Stefon Diggs) after relying heavily on Henry to start the season. I’m projecting his median closer to 32.5 yards, with about a 60% chance to stay under 37.5.

Tailing @nick_giffen

TreVeyon Henderson Longest Rush under 7.5 yards (-110 at DK/MGM/ESPN) Only 3 of his 42 (7.1%) carries from at least 8 yards away from the end zone have cleared this number, well below the league average rate of 17.7% Faces a strong Browns run D that ranks inside the top 10 in preventing explosive runs CLE also has been elite at stopping man/gap concept runs, allowing the third lowest success rate and the lowest yards per carry Important because Henderson has skewed 60/40 toward man/gap concept runs Even if I was generous and counted Henderson's two seven yard runs as eight yard runs, I'd still get him staying under this number 53.5% of the time at 6 carries However, again I'm being generous in two ways: 1. counting two runs that wouldn't have cleared 2. Giving him his consensus line of 6 carries...I am projecting him for fewer carries than that In all, I have this around 58 to 63% to stay under using the most realistic edge cases and projections

There is a value opportunity on David Njoku's receptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 2.75 receptions, while sportsbooks imply 3.74. The model believes there is a 70% chance he records fewer than 3.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at -105. (This play is good down to at least -157.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/mVODhIbOJXb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/2IsFjc7LJXb

18 carries last week but max 13 every other game avg 8.5. Our Pro projection is 13 and that’s almost exactly the avg vs CLE since wk1. Awesome Browns run D, pats gonna have to pass. Just a terrible line and already starting to fade quickly so grab asap The Patriots are another one of those touchdown favorites. New England has played well and Drake Maye is absolutely balling, but the Patriots have benefited from a Charmin-soft schedule. The offense in particular has had it easy, facing the second easiest schedule so far. The offense is beating up on defenses like the Raiders, Dolphins, Saints, and Titans> There's not one opposing defense in the top half of the league in most metrics. Suffice to say that will change in a big way with the Browns coming to town. Cleveland's defense has been fantastic. The run defense ranks best in the league by DVOA, and Myles Garrett and the tenacious defensive front will be a big test for this revamped Patriots offensive line. It will be pretty shocking if New England is able to run the ball well. The Patriots rank 31st in Run DVOA offensively and really haven't run successfully all year. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson has struggled to get going, and veteran Rhamondre Stevenson has lacked juice. We played Stevenson a week ago to find the end zone and cashed our bet. He had a season-high 18 carries to just two for Henderson. This week we're fading Stevenson's rushing attempts with a line at 17.5 that looks far too high. He did go over last week by half a carry but maxed out at 13 every other game of the season, averaging 8.5 rushing attempts outside of last week. Our Pro projection has Stevenson at 13 carries, and that feels about right. The Browns defense allowed 21 carries to Chase Brown in Week 1 but for only 43 yards. Since then, opposing RB1s have had between 11 and 16 carries every game, averaging 13.2 carries. I'm just not sure the Patriots will get as many chances to play with the lead or even possess the ball in this one. Give Cleveland's defense some credit and grab Stevenson's rushing attempts under 17.5 (-115, BetMGM), where we should hopefully have a few carries to spare.