Colts vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2026

Prop of the Week RWG

This was a really tricky game to project with all the injuries, London, etc. I originally looked at fading Jonathan Taylor because the Colts run game has struggled, but their schedule has also been brutal and I’d rather not fade a future HOF’er when I can just attack his backup. Washington ranks 1st in run DVOA, but I definitely don’t think they’re actually the best run defense in football. What does stand out is they’ve allowed a league-low 2.11 YPC on outside zone, which is the exact run concept McGowan has used a ton in his limited work. He’s only averaging 2.3 YPC on those runs himself. Obviously those are both tiny samples, and I’m not projecting him to suddenly average 2.2 yards per carry here. My distribution is much closer to 3.65 YPC. But when you’re probably talking about only 2-3 carries, even a modest efficiency downgrade matters a lot. This reminds me of the Vaki prop a few weeks ago. One broken tackle, a JT injury or a blowout and this is toast. But the median outcome still feels more like 2 carries for 6-7 yards. I have him around 6.5 rushing yards with a 58% chance to stay under 8.5. Definitely not Play of the Year material, but the underlying factors stack up enough that it’s my favorite angle from a very tricky game.

Brandon’s playground pod Week 4 bets

Pivoting over to Diggs TD. With Terry McLaurin being ruled out, that bet will void.

@wheatonbrando https://youtu.be/fQFEhKL-r_0?is=XtsrWX8zAPTj-oc0

@gneiffer07 https://youtu.be/ALbO3dG7TwU?is=7OQ_SgvqMnElDfWP

There is a value opportunity on Antonio Williams's receptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.42 receptions, while sportsbooks imply 2.19. The model believes there is a 62% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at +130. This play is good down to at least -119. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Cheap PM, fine down to +3.5

@DougKezirian https://youtu.be/3zlHdfn163U?is=HRHNRmeLuDMKMRy5

No reason to overreact re Washington. Badly outplayed by every metric vs Sea except 4 TOs including pick 6 and still barely won. Colts O will have its way. We back Intl favs, and this was 4.5-5 this morn so -3 is a gift.