Giants vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Predictions - September 14, 2025

I think there’s a realistic chance we see Jaxson Dart replace Wilson in-game as soon as this week. What’s “realistic”? Maybe 5%. Doesn’t sound too crazy, right? Even that slim chance gives sneaky value on the under, but I see other paths that help too. If Wilson plays well and the Giants keep things close, they can run a more balanced, run-heavy approach than Week 1, when they trailed for 52 minutes (4th highest rate) in their 21-6 loss to Washington. Yes, they’re six-point underdogs, but that actually projects them to play with the lead 18% more often than their 2024 average. In that type of game script, Russ would naturally come in under. The deeper issue is his profile in this offense. He attempted a 20+ yard pass on just 3% of throws in Week 1.. by far the lowest rate of his career, over 10% below his career average. That led to 5.7 air yards per attempt, also the lowest of his career. He’s throwing underneath at a career-high rate in Daboll’s scheme and scrambled on six dropbacks, another late-career high. The line itself looks inflated. Wilson’s best-case path to piling up yards would be a big negative game script that forces New York to go ultra pass-heavy. But that’s also when Daboll might decide to give Dart his first look, especially in a lower-stakes spot like Dallas without Micah Parsons. I project Russ closer to 207.5 yards, and with enough sneaky downside baked in, I give him about a 60% chance to stay under 217.5.

If there was any takeaway about Pickens’ Cowboys debut for 3 catches on 4 targets for 30 it was that his role is clearly a secondary option behind CeeDee Lamb, who dominated Prescott’s reads. While some narrative points to more targets in Week 2, the matchup isn’t built for volume. Giants CB Paulson Adebo just shadowed Terry McLaurin on 23-of-29 routes and held him to 27 yards, and Brian Burns’ pass rush should force quicker throws. Against man-heavy coverage both Lamb and Pickens can win, but Dak has consistently trusted Lamb as the first read in these situations. Even with favorable one-on-one matchups, distribution and game flow set up against Pickens. Dallas ran with a 59% success rate in Week 1, and the Giants were shredded for 220 rushing yards on the ground. As comfortable favorites and playing at home, the Cowboys are positioned to lean on Lamb as the high-volume option and control the game with their rushing attack. That script caps Pickens at modest usage, making the 3-4 reception range a far likelier outcome than hitting five. #PlayerProps

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Same spread as last week - Boys looked impressive