Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers prop market for NFL Week 2 on Sunday, September 14.
Every week, I go through every NFL game on Sunday afternoon to identify the players you should consider in the anytime TD scorers market and whether the odds are worth the investment. Sometimes, that means going beyond the clear favorites.
Let's break down my NFL touchdown props for Sunday of NFL Week 2.
NFL Week 2 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Seahawks vs. Steelers
Already shaping up to be the lowest total of the week (O/U 40.5), this might not be the best game to bet for touchdowns.
The recency bias from Week 1 could also cloud our judgement for this game. The Seahawks' offense struggled to get any offense going against the 49ers.
We also watched the Jets put up 30 points against what was supposed to be a tough Steelers' defense. It’s hard to conclude the Steelers offense will carve up the Seahawks defense just because of how efficient Aaron Rodgers looked against the Jets.
Too many Week 1 overreactions!
That being said, there’s one guy on each side that I could get behind, and that’s Kenneth Gainwell (+300) for the Steelers and Sam Darnold (+950) for the Seahawks.
Gainwell saw seven carries in Week 1 to go with three receptions, which means he’s the “new Jaylen Warren” for the Steelers. That’s the pass-catching back in an offense who occasionally gets some red-zone carries and plays more snaps than the RB1.
Another reason why we want Gainwell is the odds — the RB2 role with the Steelers was typically in the +200 to +250 range last year, so we’re getting some decent value on Kenny G. Especially since the Steelers seemed to bury their rookie Kaleb Johnson, who only saw four snaps in Week 1.
As for Darnold, he didn’t look great in his opening game as a Seahawk. He didn’t look comfortable pushing the ball downfield, and the Seahawks seemed content to let the run game do the heavy lifting as they ran the ball 26 times compared to only 23 passes.
I suspect the Seahawks will continue to lean into the run game, control the clock, and try to limit Darnold's mistakes. We also saw Jets QB Justin Fields run wild on the Steelers in Week 1 with two TDs on 12 carries.
Now, I’m not comparing Darnold to Fields, but Fields was only +220 to score in Week 1, whereas Darnold is +950.
I’m willing to take a dart throw that Darnold calls his own number inside the 10-yard line.
Verdict: Kenneth Gainwell +300 | Sprinkle on Sam Darnold +950
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Bills WR Keon Coleman was electric in Week 1 against the Ravens, and he should only improve in this offense. Even though the Jets cornerbacks are usually a tough assignment, Coleman looks to be a game-breaker.
His ability against man coverage was on full display in Week 1 with a 38% target share while leading the team in Yards Per Route Run (YPRR).
This was a carryover from 2024 when he was second on the team in target share and YPRR against man coverage. This should be a decent matchup for Coleman since the Jets played man at the third-highest rate in the league in Week 1.
For the Jets, it’s hard to envision QB Justin Fields doing anything on Sunday except for running for his life.
The Bills' pass rush got the third-highest pressure rate per dropback in Week 1 after ranking just inside the top-10 in that category in 2024.
I liked the passing volume for WR1 Garrett Wilson (nine targets and a touchdown), although it’s only a slight value at +205.
I say if we bet on a Jet, let’s take a long shot like WR3 Tyler Johnson. He only saw two targets in Week 1, but he is operating as the WR3 in this offense, and if Josh Reynolds is limited on Sunday after missing some practice, we could see Johnson get a boost on the offensive side.
Verdict: Keon Coleman +240 | Sprinkle on Tyler Johnson +900
Bears vs. Lions
Another week, another game where Lions TD scorer odds are nearly unbettable.
Despite being stifled offensively in Week 1, oddsmakers seem to think that was an aberration because the three favorites to score are Detroit players (Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and Amon-Ra St. Brown).
Additionally, five Lions have TD odds of +200 or less.
I went with Jameson Williams last week at +225, and while I was OK with the bet, my fear of this offense taking a step back was apparent from the jump. The Lions only managed two first downs from the run in Week 1, and if the run game isn’t working, the offense can be choppy.
That’s why I’m going to take a wait-and-see approach for one more week on Detroit — if it can’t get the offense going in the home opener, we might be witnessing a huge slide.
Another player I bet last week to score a TD was second-year Bears WR Rome Odunze.
I’m going right back to him in Week 2. Despite scoring the TD and leading the team in targets and snaps played, his TD odds haven’t dropped below +200 yet.
Odunze led the Bears in targets and catches against man coverage in Week 1, and the Lions led the NFL in man coverage last year, as well as the opening week of this season.
Verdict: Rome Odunze +225 | Pass on Lions
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Giants vs. Cowboys
I know my Cowboys fandom bias will be showing in this one, but the Giants' offense stinks.
QB Russell Wilson looked lost in Week 1 against the Commanders. New York's offense managed to fall short of scoring a TD despite having two red-zone trips and leading in time of possession.
The obvious anytime TD choice for the Giants is WR Malik Nabers (+160). He saw 12 targets in Week 1, one of them coming in the end zone, and he should likely see 10+ targets again.
That being said, the odds aren’t great, and the Cowboys defense has completely shifted under defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus with them playing the most zone coverage of any team in the NFL after the first game.
Nabers does have decent metrics against zone as well, but it is tight end Theo Johnson who has me intrigued.
Johnson is playing over 70% of snaps; I think the Cowboys will allow some more catches over the middle to negate the deep-ball threat from Nabers and WR2 Darius Slayton.
We just saw Eagles TE Dallas Goedert get peppered with seven targets against the Cowboys' zone defense in Week 1. So, let’s bank on Russ to cook and find Johnson in the end zone.
Cowboys WR Kavontae Turpin was held out of the end zone in Week 1, but his usage was encouraging because they used him in a variety of ways.
He had two targets and two carries and he played the third-most snaps of any Dallas wide receiver.
In Week 1, the Giants defense leaned heavily on man defense with a lot of Cover 1, playing it at a top-10 rate.
Turpin led the Cowboys in YPRR against man coverage last season, and he saw a higher target share than TE Jake Ferguson or WR2 Brandin Cooks in that spot.
I think it’s only a matter of time before Turpin breaks a big play; I’ll take a chance on him against the Giants this week.
Verdict: Theo Johnson +410 | Kavontae Turpin +500
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Patriots vs. Dolphins
What an uninspiring performance by the Dolphins. The highs for the Fins are sky blue, but the lows are browner than dirt.
I think there’s upside to the Fins this week because of the Week 1 overreaction, and my first instinct is to just run it back with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine at +700.
His TD odds closed at +600 last week, and while he only saw two targets, he still played 45% of snaps. NWI was one of my favorite anytime TD bets last year when he scored in eight games while seeing minimal targets.
To me, Dolphins WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle aren't worth it at all in the price range. We’ve already seen Waddle leave a game with a shoulder injury while Hill hasn’t looked the same since 2023. The hassle that comes with those two isn’t worth the bet.
The one takeaway from Week 1 that will likely carry over to Week 2 is the Dolphins' secondary looks ready to implode. When you make Daniel Jones look like a competent quarterback, it might be time to reevaluate your defense.
That’s why I think there’s some value on Patriots WRs like Demario Douglas (+425) or Kayshon Boutte (+350). Each played significantly more snaps than WR Stefon Diggs, who seems to still be recovering from offseason knee surgery.
Of the two, I’d probably lean toward Boutte because he’s more of a deep threat than Douglas, but it’s a bit iffy.
You could likely sprinkle on both and profit if one scores, but I’ll opt with Boutte this week.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine +700 | Kayshon Boutte +350
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49ers vs. Saints
I know it’s only Week 2, but it seems a bit early to have a showdown between backup quarterbacks.
The Saints are still rolling with QB Spencer Rattler, who likely wouldn’t start for any other NFL team, while the 49ers are going with QB Mac Jones due to Brock Purdy's injury.
I won’t lie, it’s bleak on the 49ers' front for touchdowns.
RB Christian McCaffrey took the lion's hare of touches in Week 1 after the “will he play?” shenanigans with the 49ers' injury report.
McCaffrey seems to be in line for another game where he gets the bulk of carries, but given the workload, he has to rest at some point.
That’s why I like Brian Robinson Jr. at +270 — CMC can’t do it all himself. He’s too much of an injury risk, and they need him for the latter stages of the season.
So, if the 49ers get into the red zone, I could easily see them letting Robinson take the Jordan Mason/Isaac Guerendo role and get a few red-zone carries to keep McCaffery fresh.
One of my favorite guys to bet on for touchdowns is Saints TE Juwan Johnson, and it looks like he's one of the main guys in the offense as it stands now.
He led the team with eight receptions in Week 1, and he doesn’t seem to have much competition at his position as he played 99% of snaps.
RB Alvin Kamara seems to be a step slower (11 carries, 41 yards) and WR Chris Olave is one hit away from being out for the season.
Unless you want to bet WR Rashid Shaheed to beat the Niners deep (which isn’t a terrible idea), I’ll side with Juwan Johnson in Week 2.
Verdict: Juwan Johnson +360 | Brian Robinson Jr. +370
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Rams vs. Titans
The "Big 3" on the Rams — RB Kyren Williams, WR Puka Nacua, WR Davante Adams — are always going to be priced at +150 or lower. This is the world we live in when betting Rams Anytime TD scorers.
Of the three, I’m always going to gravitate to Adams — he has a penchant for scoring and he’s typically found success against zone coverage (Titans played zone at second-highest rate in NFL).
Last season, Adams led the Jets in YPRR and target share against zone coverage; I expect him to have a bit of an easier matchup against the Titans this week compared to the Texans’ excellent secondary in Week 1.
Titans QB Cam Ward didn’t have a great game in his debut against Denver last week; he was sailing passes all over the place and appeared to struggle with the Broncos' defensive line pressure (58% of Ward’s dropbacks).
The Rams can get pressure too, but not nearly on the same level as Denver. I expect Ward to have a bit more time to make decisions and quality throws.
This means I’m betting on WR Calvin Ridley at +270. Ward should look for him early and often, and perhaps on a deep shot to let him make a play.
It’s not often where you can get a WR1 at +200 or better, and this was typically the price for Ridley when he had Will Levis or Mason Rudolph at QB.
If the Ward-Ridley chemistry can get on track, I love for them to connect in the end zone.
Verdict: Davante Adams +150 | Calvin Ridley +270
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Browns vs. Ravens
What a confusing time to bet on Browns TD scorers.
TE David Njoku seemed like he was set to be the focal point of the passing offense — instead, rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. emerged and made Njoku a decoy.
Instead of RB Jerome Ford getting the majority of carries, it was rookie RB Dylan Sampson being featured with 12 carries and eight (!) targets.
After one game, it’s difficult to pinpoint if those were aberrations or if those two are here to stay.
The one player who was still a huge part of the Browns offense was WR Cedric Tillman (+325). He caught the only passing TD from Joe Flacco, along with being one of three Browns to have an end-zone target.
While I expect Fannin and Sampson to still have prominent roles in Week 2, I’d opt for Tillman to continue his ascent as a competent NFL receiver.
It’s not often you look at the anytime TD odds for a game and five players from one team are the top-five favorites (Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman).
As much respect as I have for the Ravens, this makes it near impossible to find value on those guys in a game where Baltimore is favored by double-digits.
At this point, with TE2 Isaiah Likely out again this week, I’d take a look at his replacement Charlie Kolar at +600 or better.
Kolar played over 60% of snaps in Week 1 and saw a 90% route participation when he was on the field. I’ll sprinkle on him this week.
Verdict: Cedric Tillman +360 | Sprinkle on Charlie Kolar +750
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Jaguars vs. Bengals
It’s hard to parse the data from Week 1 for the Jaguars because the 90-minute weather delay seemed to throw off everyone.
I’m looking at Week 2 as the new “Week 1” for the Jags, and facing the Bengals this week, my sights are set on a quarterback anytime TD.
I drank the Kool-Aid from Jaguars head coach Liam Coen. He made it known in the offseason that they’ll be implementing the tush push for QB Trevor Lawrence, and given his stature at 6-foot-6, Lawrence could be in for a huge rushing campaign.
He only ran the ball four times in the opener, and that was mainly because he didn’t really need to extend himself. The Jags ran for 200 yards as the Panthers defense crapped all over themselves.
Part of the reason why I want to go back to Lawrence is the odds and the matchup.
Anything over +500 is showing expected value for the Jaguars QB to score, and while the Bengals' defense only allowed 16 points in Week 1, the Browns were still moving the ball before Joe Flacco made two interceptions.
I love betting on the Bengals offense when we can get some value — they can seemingly explode for 40+ points in any given week.
The problem is sportsbooks know that, and they price the Bengals like the offense is going to score five TDs every week.
RB Chase Brown, WR Ja’Marr Chase and WR Tee Higgins are all priced at +130 or lower. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but all three likely aren't scoring every week.
Verdict: Trevor Lawrence +550 | Pass on Bengals
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Panthers vs. Cardinals
The high hopes of the Panthers' resurgence took a big dip from Week 1.
I’m not sure QB Bryce Young could’ve played worse because the Jaguars only managed pressure on 10% of his dropbacks and he still could only get to a 51% completion percentage with two interceptions.
That’s why I’m not feeling great about backing the Panthers' run game — at this rate, they could be down two scores by halftime in this one.
I’d rather just bank on Young to find the end zone; he scrambled four times in Week 1 and will likely use his legs if the Panthers get into the red zone.
Unless you can get Tetairoa McMillan at +200 or better, it’s either Young or nobody for the Panthers.
Sticking with the ground game in this one for the Cardinals as this could shape up to be a Kyler Murray game.
He rushed seven times in Week 1 with three designed scrambles, and that was with the Saints' pass rush in his face the entire game. The Saints were fourth in the league in pressure rate per dropback last week.
If the Panthers are caught napping because they’re so concerned with stopping Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, I could see Murray jogging one into the end zone.
Verdict: Kyler Murray +230 | Bryce Young +550
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Broncos vs. Colts
Under Shane Steichen, the Colts have typically used a zone-heavy approach with their defense — that continued in Week 1. Indy played zone at a 77% clip (8th) last week while also playing Cover 2 at a 33% rate (3rd).
This means if we’re betting on Broncos pass-catchers, we’re looking at Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin.
Franklin played more snaps than Mims in Week 1 while also seeing six targets. Franklin led the Broncos in YPRR in Week 1, too.
Mims, on the other hand, absolutely crushed zone defense last season and led the Broncos in target share and YPRR against that type of coverage.
Of the two, I’d still lean toward Mims. He’s still the Broncos' kick returner and has higher upside for explosive plays, but if you wanted to opt for Franklin instead, I wouldn’t push back.
Colts TE Tyler Warren is making his presence known. He led the Colts in target share in his first game while snagging seven receptions — he even saw an end-zone target.
It’s a tougher matchup against the Broncos, but at +325, I’m willing to overlook it because we may never see Warren priced over +300 again after he scores his first TD.
Verdict: Tyler Warren +320 | Marvin Mims +350
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Eagles vs. Chiefs
I know Eagles wide receiver AJ Brown only saw one target in Week 1. I know he was dealing with a hamstring injury, and I know the Eagles still run the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL, but there’s no way I’m passing on him at +180 or better.
I’ve tracked the anytime TD odds for every game of Brown’s career as an Eagle (43 regular-season games), and the highest his odds have ever been was +150 (Week 17 vs. Commanders, 2024).
Historically, Brown has crushed man defense. His YPRR along with his target share against that kind of coverage is typically top-three in the NFL.
Pair that with the Chiefs being a bit more of a challenged defensively in stopping the run, along with TE Dallas Goedert missing time, and Brown could be in for a huge bounce-back effort since the Chiefs played man coverage at the 11th-highest rate in the league last week.
I was all in on the Xavier Worthy show in Week 1 — my dream turned into a nightmare in just three plays.Worthy’s shoulder injury is clearly going to be an issue all season, and the problem with picking TD scorers on the Chiefs is they spread the ball around so much.
I’m avoiding Chiefs TD props for the foreseeable future until the prices recalibrate because there’s no chance I’m betting on Taylor Swift’s fiancé at only +160.
Verdict: A.J. Brown +180 | Pass on Chiefs
