49ers vs. Texans Odds & Betting Predictions - October 26, 2025

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Kittle did not have a single catch last week & I’d expect that to change on national TE day. HOU has the Worst 1Q TE DVOA this season, and has allowed 7 different TEs to go over their 1Q lines in the L5 games — Barner 7, Arroyo 35, Kolar 10, Andrews 10, Strange 16, Long 7, Otton 12 Kittle has 9+ 1Q Rec Yds in 9/L11 games. He’s had 2+ targets in 5/L7 1Qs.

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Higgins is a 2nd round rookie WR I was high on, but he has started slow while Xavier Hutchinson has been the clear WR2. With Nico Collins out, Higgins should slide into that outside role as his direct backup. My comp for him was a Dollar Store version of Nico Collins/Tee Higgins (no relation). Christian Kirk’s absence mostly frees slot snaps for Jaylin Noel and Braxton Berrios, but Higgins benefits from Nico’s vacated perimeter role. For Higgins specifically, the longest reception market is the one to attack because his targets tend to be deeper when he is on the field and he probably won’t draw a ton of targets. C.J. Stroud should have a cleaner pocket with Nick Bosa out for the season and Bryce Huff sidelined. Huff had 14 more pressures than any other 49er, so protection should hold up long enough for Stroud to find time to target Higgins downfield on occasion. I project his median longest catch at 18.5 yards with about a 59% chance to clear 16.5. I also show value on FanDuel alts: 20+ yards +130 and 30+ yards +420 (I have 30+ closer to +300).

The injury report is a mess for this one. Nico Collins is out in concussion protocol, and the 49ers offense remains waylaid by injuries. Brock Purdy is out once again, and the Niners are missing multiple receivers and a whole cadre of defenders. The focus is on all those offensive injuries in San Francisco, but I'm really worried about a defense that really wasn't all that talented to start with before losing superstars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, now in addition to several other starters. My roster rankings have this defense 31st going forward, ahead of only Dallas. San Francisco is 5-2 but shouldn't get too comfortable just yet. There's value on a 49ers ticket to miss the playoffs at +335 (BetRivers), with this tricky game and another Rams matchup a couple weeks from now. This season can still turn, and I'm wondering if the team might just totally blow a tire and lay an egg at some point — maybe in this one. Houston's offense stinks, no doubt, but even the Texans have scored when they faced terrible defenses like the Titans and Ravens. The Texans won those games by 26 and 34, scoring plenty when the competition wasn't so stiff defensively, and Houston's defense remains among the best in the league. DeMeco Ryans should have plenty of ideas how to defend Kyle Shanahan after all their time together. The Texans remain quite underrated, and we can see that in Houston's underlying metrics like Pythagorean rating. From Week 5 forward, teams with a Pythagorean plus-minus of 35% or better are an awesome 17-6 ATS over the last couple decades, covering 74% of the time by 9.3 PPG. When those teams are favored, they're a perfect 7-0 ATS, covering by almost 22 PPG — including wins by 15, 24, 34, 38, and 49 points, all in October! It's a tiny sample, but it fits what we've seen from both these teams over the past calendar year. During that time span, the 49ers have 10 losses, and six of them are by double digits, with an average margin of defeat at 12.9 PPG including losses of 23, 25, and 28 points. In the same time frame, four of Houston's eight wins are by double digits, with an average 15.9 PPG margin of victory and four 20+ wins. I don't see much value in backing Houston at -1.5 or -2.5 with how many injuries and unknowns there are in both sides. I do like the Texans here, but if I'm right, I want them to make it worth my while. I'll forgo the usual Texans spread and bet a pair of alts instead: Texans -9.5 at +320 and Texans -19.5 at +2000, both at FanDuel.

Strong Luck Over + Luck Rankings play on Texans means for both to hit Texans TT must hit Also love that SF generates 2nd worst pressure rate over expectation and Stroud jumps from 3rd worst of 37 QBs with at least 25 dropbacks under pressure to 10th in ANY/A with a clean pocket Over 22.5 is fine too as 22 isnt key at all

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I don’t care what anyone says, I still believe in this Texans team. Their defense continues to be elite, and it’s only a matter of time before the offense figures it out. While not having Nico Collins won’t help, the 49ers defense is still very banged up. Matter of fact, the entire 49ers roster is banged up. The 49ers will be missing Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, Brandon Aiyuk, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Jake Brendel, and Bryce Huff. They could also be without Deommodore Lenoir and Luke Gifford. You can’t possibly get more banged up than this. Almost every one of their stars is out with an injury. I don’t think this will go smoothly against the best defense in football. People ask me why I have the Texans as my 5th best team in the NFL. The reasoning is simple, their defensive unit is elite. Houston’s defense ranks 1st in EPA/play, 1st in total EPA, 1st in EPA/pass, and 2nd in completion percentage allowed. Mac Jones has done well as the backup, but this smells like a disaster day loading for Jones. The Texans will have a game plan to remove Christian McCaffrey from the equation, which leaves the 49ers offense in a tough spot. Houston has the best pass rush grade in the NFL and will pressure Jones all game. I think the Texans defense will single handedly win them this game. All we need from the offense is an average performance. The Texans offense has been awful at protecting C.J. Stroud, but the 49ers defense has been the 3rd worst team in sack rate. They also rank just 17th in EPA/pass and 25th in success rate. I respect Robert Saleh as a defensive coordinator, but he can only do so much with all these injuries piling up. The 49ers current defense grades out as the 25th worst unit in football. It’s now or never for the Texans. I’ll sell high on the 49ers and buy low on a team I have so much belief in.

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All signs point to Houston. SF sell high, Houston buy low. More to come on @TheFavoritesPodcast

I have this total above market and may upgrade the 49ers' offense later in the week should we get good injury news on Brock Purdy. Texans' offense should also be more competent against a less feisty front.