2020 NFL Player Props: How to Bet Sam Darnold’s Passing Yards

Books are expecting Sam Darnold to take a leap this year. DraftKings has set the New York Jets quarterback's totals at 3,600.5 passing yards and 22.5 touchdown passes.

On paper it may make sense. If Darnold didn’t get mono and played all 16 games last season, he probably would have gotten over the 3,600-yard mark. The 2018 No. 3 pick has shown flashes of brilliance when on the field for the Jets, including a stunner over the Dallas Cowboys at home last season.

However, with a lame duck coach and limited weapons, I can’t buy Darnold taking the leap in 2020. Our Action Network Season Projections have Darnold, on average, coming up just shy of the 3,600-yard mark.

This offseason, the Jets did not make much of a splash to get weapons around Darnold, but did add Breshad Perriman to replace Robby Anderson’s production after Perriman thrived in Tampa Bay’s offense towards the end of 2019. Back is Jamison Crowder, who went for 822 yards on 78 catches, and the team spent a second-round pick on Baylor wideout Denzel Mims.

The Jets used their 2020 first-round pick on Louisville left tackle Mekhi Becton to help shore up the offensive line that was also a priority in the offseason, signing several pricey veterans across the unit With a shortened training camp and no preseason, the lack of continuity for the O-line is going to show early for the Jets.

Now, the schedule. The Jets may have the most difficult one to navigate this season. Drawing the NFC West and the tough defensive fronts of the 49ers and the Rams, in addition to AFC East foes Bills and Patriots, the Jets also face the LA Chargers, who are expected to have a top pass rush.

Multiple trips out West for a New York club is brutal, with road games in Seattle and LA in back-to-back weeks.

With the turmoil surrounding Le’Veon Bell and Adam Gase from last season likely trickling into this one as the Jets may find themselves behind the eight ball early with a lack of weapons and a glut of new offensive linemen trying to get integrated into a new team on the fly, I think this year goes haywire quickly for New York.

While playing from behind may help Darnold’s passing yardage, I am going to play the under 3,600.5. The Jets should have a formidable defense behind coordinator Gregg Williams, similar to 2019, that will keep them somewhat in games. I will be looking to play unders in Jet games as I think the stout defense will help keep the anemic offense in the contest.

I think we are going to have to wait one more year for the Sam Darnold breakout.

The Pick: Under 3,600.5 yards, play to 3,500.

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