2023 NFL Anytime Touchdown Preview: Notes for All 32 Teams

Anytime Touchdown Scorers are my top priority as we enter the 2023-24 NFL season. This market can lead to frustration and agony, but with proper research and a solid betting approach, it can be enjoyable and profitable.

Part of the research comes over the offseason, when you can identify impact players and the ones to completely avoid.

With the regular season on the horizon, the 2022 campaign may feel like a distant memory in regards to how touchdown trends played out. Even the information from training camp can be misleading for what we'll see in the opening month of the season.

As someone who’s been profitable in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market in three of the last four seasons, I’ve put together notes, stats, facts and observations for all 32 NFL teams to help bettors get up to speed.

This will highlight players I’m monitoring to see how their odds correlate compared to last season, and if there’s players we should be targeting early for the 2023 regular season or (if applicable) avoiding altogether.

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Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: WR A.J. Green +12U
Biggest hit of season: A.J. Green +2000 (Week 10 vs. Rams)

• RB James Connor led the Cardinals in red-zone carries with 23, but only six were inside the 5-yard line. RB2 Keaontay Ingram had three carries inside the 5-yard line, with a +550 score in Week 7.
• Although TE Zach Ertz is coming off a torn ACL, he led the Cardinals with four receiving touchdowns and 15 red-zone targets in 2022. He’s expected to suit up Week 1 in Washington.

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Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: WR Damiere Byrd +11.5 Units
Biggest hit of season: WR KhaDarel Hodge +1500 (Week 10 vs Panthers)

• Although he only played 10 games, TE Kyle Pitts was fourth in total air yards (816) at the position, trailing only Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson. Those three each played at least 16 games in 2022.
• RB Cordarrelle Patterson was the most consistent TD scorer for Atlanta last season, scoring in 7-of-13 games (+4.4U). His average Anytime TD odds in 2022: +135.
• WR Drake London only had 4 TDs in 17 games, but tallied 16 red-zone targets. That’s more than George Kittle (15 RZ targets; 11 TDs), Mike Evans (14 RZ targets; 6 TDs) and CeeDee Lamb (12 RZ targets, 9 TDs).

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: RB Kenyan Drake +30.1U
Biggest hit of season: Kenyan Drake +3000 (Week 18 vs. Bengals)

• TE Mark Andrews scored in four of six games to start the season and was +2.5U in profit. He didn’t score for the remainder of the season and finished at -7.5U.
• QB Lamar Jackson had 30 red-zone rushing attempts in 2020 (15 games); he has a total of 35 over the last two seasons (24 games). Jackson's ATD odds have ranged from +125 to +175.
• Despite ranking seventh in total rushing attempts last season, no Ravens player was in the top 40 in total red-zone rushing attempts. Baltimore totaled 14 rushing TDs.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: RB Nyheim Hines +10.5U
Biggest hit of season: FB Reggie Gilliam +1400 (Week 2 vs. Titans)

• The rule of thumb with TE Dawson Knox is to bet on him when his odds are at least +200. He was +200 or better in nine games last season and scored in six of them – five were inside the red zone.
• QB Josh Allen has increased his total carries and red-zone rushing attempts in each season of his career. He had seven rushing TDs in 2022 and had ATD odds ranging from +135 to +175.
• WR Khalil Shakur is expected to take over slot duties for the departed Isaiah McKenzie. McKenzie finished with nine red-zone targets and five TDs (+4.4U).

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: RB Raheem Blackshear +20U
Biggest hit of season: Raheem Blackshear +1400 (Week 14 vs. Seahawks)

• The Panthers are one of the few teams who no longer have their 2022 leaders in red-zone targets (DJ Moore) or red-zone rushing attempts (D’onta Foreman).
• WR Adam Thielen is coming off a “down” year, with only six receiving TDs. He tends to start the season fast. From 2018-2021, he tallied 12 touchdowns over Weeks 1-4. He also finished 10th in red-zone targets (21) in 2022.
• RB Miles Sanders was fourth in total red-zone rushing attempts last season with the Eagles and finished with a career-high 11 rushing touchdowns.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: WR Velus Jones Jr. +24U
Biggest hit of season: Velus Jones Jr. +2800 (Week 5 vs. Vikings)

• TE Cole Kmet looks like he has great chemistry with QB Justin Fields. After registering no scores in 2021, Kmet exploded for seven receiving TDs and finished +5.6U in profit.
• The Bears face the NFC South as part of their schedule in 2023, which means WR DJ Moore could be a great ATD bet in those games. Of his 21 career TDs, 14 (66.6%) have come against NFC South teams.
• Fields finished with 25 red-zone rushing attempts in 2022, which was third amongst all QBs. His eight rushing TDs only trailed Jalen Hurts (13) for QB rushing scores.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: QB Joe Burrow +17.7U
Biggest hit of season: RB Chris Evans +1000 (Week 13 vs. Chiefs)

• After finishing 11th in ATD profits in 2021 (+7.1U) with 16 TDs, RB Joe Mixon fell back to Earth in 2022 – 7 TDs and -7.75U.
• Beyond Joe Burrow, only one Bengal finished in the green for 2022: WR Tyler Boyd (+3.3U). Boyd had five TDs and 12 red-zone targets in 15 games. The latter was second on the Bengals behind WR Ja’Marr Chase (24).
• The Bengals defense was tough to score on last year, finishing in the top five in TDs allowed to RB, WR, TE and QB.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: WR Amari Cooper +3.6U
Biggest hit of season: WR Anthony Schwartz +1200 (Week 12 vs. Buccaneers)

• Steer clear of TE David Njoku when the Browns aren’t facing AFC North teams. Eleven of his 19 career TDs (27 games) have come against AFC North teams (40.7% TD rate). The TD rate drops to 15.3% when facing teams outside of the division. The Browns face the Bengals in Week 1.
• With Jacoby Brissett at QB (11 games), WR Amari Cooper had seven receiving TDs and averaged 8.4 targets per game. With DeShaun Watson at QB (six games), Cooper had two receiving TDs and averaged 6.4 targets per game.
• Be on the lookout for who will be RB2. Nick Chubb had 37 red-zone rushing attempts in 2022, but backup Kareem Hunt wasn’t too far off with 25. Hunt is no longer on the team; Jerome Ford is getting the early backup work.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: TE Peyton Hendershot +14.5U
Biggest hit of season: Peyton Hendershot +1100 (Week 15 vs. Jaguars)

• Since suffering an ankle injury in 2020, QB Dak Prescott has only 18 red-zone carries in 28 regular season-games, with two rushing TDs.
• WR Michael Gallup finished with four TDs in 14 games, all in home games. Of his 19 career TDs, 14 were in home games (73%).
• TE Peyton Hendershot was one of two Cowboys to score a receiving (two) and rushing (one) touchdown in 2022. His ATD odds for each score were +650, +1000 and +1100.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: Jalen Virgil +16U
Biggest hit of season: Jalen Virgil +2500 (Week 10 vs. Titans)

• QB Russell Wilson had three rushing scores in 2022, but his red-zone rushing attempts have dropped each year since 2019. Wilson has 12 red-zone carries over the last two seasons (29 games) and only 26 rushing TDs in 173 career games.
• Adam Trautman may be tabbed as TE1, but ATD bettors should only consider TE2 Greg Dulcich. Trautman has four TDs in 43 career games and only had two red-zone targets in 2022.
• Although he led the Broncos in catches, yards and TDs, WR Jerry Jeudy’s average ATD odds in 2022 were +220. His teammate, WR Courtland Sutton, had average ATD odds of +165.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: TE Shane Zylstra +27U
Biggest hit of season: Shane Zylstra +2200 (Week 9 vs. Packers)

• In five seasons with the Rams (69 games), QB Jared Goff registered 10 rushing TDs. In two seasons with the Lions (31 games), he has none. He only rushed the ball inside the 20-yard line four times in 2022, with no attempts inside the 5-yard line.
• The Lions may have rookie TE Sam LaPorta tabbed as their starter, but from Week 10 onward last season, TE2 Brock Wright scored four TDs on 12 catches and 17 targets. Wright finished second on the Lions in TD catches.
• All six of WR Amon-Ra St. Brown’s touchdowns were scored at home and in the red zone. St. Brown finished ninth in total red-zone targets with 21.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: WR Christian Watson +10.9U (9 TDs in 14 Games)
Biggest hit of season: TE Marcedes Lewis +1200 (Week 16 vs. Dolphins)

• Entering Week 10 against Dallas, WR Christian Watson was +310 to score. After scoring three times in that game, Watson’s average ATD odds from Weeks 11-18 were +175.
• The Packers only combined for 61 red-zone targets in 2022, but nearly 40% of those were to players no longer on the team. WRsAllen Lazard (17) and Randall Cobb (7) have since joined the Jets.
• RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon finished with nearly the same amount of red-zone rushing attempts (29 vs. 27), but Dillon was the clear preferred choice in short-yardage situations. Dillon had 10 red-zone rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line while Jones had two.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: WR Phillip Dorsett +5U
Biggest hit of season: Phillip Dorsett +2000 (Week 7 vs. Raiders)

• With the departure of WR Brandin Cooks (93 targets, 12 red-zone targets), Nico Collins is the presumed WR1 – he has 14 red-zone targets in 24 career games. Collins had two TDs in 10 games in 2022.
• Despite the Texans ranking 31st in rushing TDs and rushing yards per game, RB Dameon Pierce (five TDs in 14 games; 35% TD rate) saw average ATD odds of +135 (42.5% implied probability).
• The Texans allowed the most TDs to running backs in 2022, which means RBs like J.K. Dobbins (Week 1), Zack Moss/Deon Jackson (Week 2) and Travis Etienne (Week 3) could be worth consideration for multi-TD props.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: TE Jelani Woods +11.7U
Biggest hit of season: Jelani Woods +2200 (Week 3 vs. Chiefs)

• Through the first eight weeks of the season, TE Jelani Woods was the seventh-most profitable ATD scorer in the NFL at +20.7U (three TDs). From Week 12 onward, he played the most snaps of any Colts TE.
• WR Michael Pittman led the Colts in red-zone targets and snap counts. He’s one of two WRs in the NFL (Chris Godwin) to garner over 120 targets and average fewer than 10 yards per catch. Pittman's average ATD odds from Weeks 1-8: +135; his average ATD odds from Weeks 9-18: +180.
• Look for QB Anthony Richardson’s ATD odds to hover around +250 to +300 in Week 1. Richardson has a similar profile to Justin Fields, who had +275 ATD odds in Week 1 last season.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: Jaguars Defense +14.5U
Biggest hit of season: JaMycal Hasty +1700 (Week 6 vs. Colts)

• The Jaguars ranked 17th in red-zone efficiency, but not for lack of trying. WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones were in the top 15 in red-zone targets while RB Travis Etienne was fifth in red-zone rush attempts.
• QB Trevor Lawrence could be an ATD sleeper in 2023. Lawrence’s ATD odds ranged from +350 to +500 in 2022; he had five scores and finished at +7.7U in profit.
• With four TDs, the Jacksonville defense finished as the third-highest scoring unit and was +14.4U.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: WR Justin Watson +15U
Biggest hit of season: Justin Watson +1900 (Week 2 vs. Chargers)

• QB Patrick Mahomes entered 2022 with eight career rushing touchdowns in 63 games. He ended up setting a career high with four rushing scores – generating +2.5U in profit – despite only having 14 red-zone carries, which was ninth amongst all signal-callers.
• Each of Mahomes' rushing TDs were scored from Week 9 onward. If you bet on a Mahomes TD from Weeks 9-18, you would’ve been up +8.5U.
• TE Travis Kelce had minus odds for ATD props in 15-of-17 games. While he had 12 TDs, he finished at -4.5U for the season if you bet 1U per game. That was 11th in profits just on the Chiefs in 2022.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: WR Keelan Cole +3U
Biggest hit of season: Keelan Cole +1200 (Week 15 vs. Patriots)

• WR Davante Adams had plus odds for his ATD prop in seven games in 2022 – in 2021, he only had one. If you only bet his ATD prop when he had plus odds last season, you would’ve gone 5-2 and up +4.1U.
• Raiders QBs have not produced in the ATD department. Derek Carr combined for 10 red-zone rushing attempts the last two seasons (no TDs). Carr’s replacement, Jimmy Garoppolo, is coming off a broken foot. Tread lightly.
• Look for TE Austin Hooper to make an impact with the departures of Darren Waller and Foster Moreau. When Waller missed games from Weeks 7-14, Moreau’s ATD odds averaged out to +270. Hooper will likely have similar odds in Week 1 vs. Denver.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: FB Zander Horvath +17U
Biggest hit of season: Zander Horvath +2500 (Week 1 vs. Raiders)

• After totaling 42 red-zone rush attempts and eight rushing TDs in his first two seasons, QB Justin Herbert’s rib injury severely limited him in 2022. Herbert had only six red-zone carries in 17 games with no TDs. Look for a bounce back from Herbert on the ground.
• RB Austin Ekeler had 18 combined receiving and rushing touchdowns in 2022, the most by any player. But for ATD props, Ekeler’s average odds were -145 and he “only” scored in 12-of-17 games. As a result, he finished just +1.2U in profit overall.
• WRs Mike Williams and Keenan Allen combined to only play 23 games and were never above +150 (40% implied probability) for ATD props in any game they started.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: WR Tutu Atwell +8U
Biggest hit of season: Tutu Atwell +1900 (Week 11 vs. Saints)

• Over the last two seasons, WR Van Jefferson has been the most profitable Ram with 9 TDs in 28 games (+11.1U). His average ATD odds with Stafford at QB: +220.
• TE Tyler Higbee has ranked in the top five in red-zone targets at the position in each of the last two seasons (35).
• Since the start of 2021, WR Cooper Kupp has had minus odds for ATD props in 23-of-26 games – he’s scored in each game with plus odds. With TDs in 17-of-23 games, you’d be up +3.5U had you bet his ATD each game.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: WR River Cracraft +15U
Biggest hit of season: FB Alec Ingold +1800 (Week 10 vs. Browns)

• QB Tua Tagovailoa saw a notable shift in ATD odds following his concussion against the Bengals in Week 4. From Weeks 1-4, his odds averaged +350 (22% implied probability). From Weeks 7-16, his odds average +550 (14% implied probability).
• WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for 287 targets – only 18 (15%) were inside the red zone.
• The Dolphins were bottom three in catches and touchdowns allowed to the TE position. The opposing starting TEs for Miami’s opening month: Gerald Everett (LAC), Hunter Henry (NE), Greg Dulcich (DEN) and Dawson Knox (BUF).

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: FB CJ Ham +43U
Biggest hit of season: CJ Ham +4000 (Week 10 vs. Bills)

• Adam Thielen (21 red-zone targets in 2022) is out and Jordan Addison is in, but don’t overlook K.J. Osborn. The third-year player has 12 TDs in 34 games (+13.1U) since 2021 and played 74% of snaps last year.
• RB Alex Mattison had average ATD odds of +410 with Dalvin Cook in the lineup in 2022. In four games Cook didn’t play in 2021, Mattison’s average odds were +130, and he scored in 3-of-4 games.
• In his final three seasons with Washington, QB Kirk Cousins had 13 rushing TDs in 48 games (27% score rate). In 80 games with Minnesota, he has six rushing TDs (7.5% score rate).

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: Patriots Defense +39U
Biggest hit of season: RB Pierre Strong Jr. +1200 (Week 14 vs. Cardinals)

• The Patriots defense is its own economy. The unit set a team record for defensive touchdowns in 2022 (seven) – a bettor would’ve been up +39U from blindly betting New England’s defense each week.
• Betting on Patriots running backs can be a fool’s errand. A different RB has led the team in rushing TDs in each of the last six seasons. With Ezekiel Elliott's arrival, Rhamondre Stevenson could see a regression (five TDs in 2022).
• QB Mac Jones only has one rushing TD – and 15 red-zone rushes – in 31 career games. Of those attempts, only one was inside the 5-yard line.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: WR Rashid Shaheed +26.4U
Biggest hit of season: Rashid Shaheed +1600 (Week 7 vs. Cardinals)

• TE Taysom Hill saw a big resurgence and set career highs in touchdowns (nine) and carries (96). He finished 2022 at +9.1U. Since 2020, he is second on the Saints in rushing attempts (52).
• From Weeks 7-15, TE Juwan Johnson scored in 5-of-7 games (7 TDs total) and had ATD odds ranging from +360 to +550. He finished 2022 at +7.85U, which was seventh for all TEs.
• Do not bet QB Derek Carr ATD props. Carr only has six rushing TDs in 142 career games and had none in 2022. He hasn’t scored since Week 15 of the 2019 season. His ATD odds ranged from +500 to +900 last season.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: RB Gary Brightwell +30U
Biggest hit of season: Gary Brightwell +4500 (Week 5 vs Packers)

• WR Richie James had seven red-zone catches — good enough to lead the Giants but 102nd overall. He also led N.Y. with four TD catches and was the most-profitable receiver on the team at +8.6U. He was signed by the Kansas City Chiefs over the offseason.
• In TE Darren Waller’s breakout season in 2020, he was second in red-zone targets (35) and had nine touchdowns in 16 games. In the following two seasons (20 games), Waller only had 27 red-zone targets and five touchdowns.
• QB Daniel Jones has yet to score a rushing touchdown against the Cowboys in his career (seven games). In two games vs. Dallas in 2022, Jones’ ATD odds were +250 and +260. The Giants will be in Dallas for Week 1.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: RB Breece Hall +8.5U
Biggest hit of season: WR Braxton Berrios +950 (Week 6 vs. Packers)

• From Weeks 1-7, RB Breece Hall scored in 5-of-7 games (+8.5U). With 15 red-zone carries in seven games, Hall was projected to finish with for the season, which would’ve been sixth in the NFL.
• Of receivers with at least 15 red-zone targets, WR Garrett Wilson had the lowest catch rate at 26%. The positive spin is he ranked fourth in target share in the red zone with a 30.2% target rate.
• Outside of Hall, no other Jets were profitable for Anytime TDs in 2022.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: QB Gardner Minshew +4.3U
Biggest hit of Season: WR Zach Pascal +1800 (Week 8 vs. Steelers)

• QB Jalen Hurts scored rushing touchdowns in 9-of-15 games with 13 total scores in 2022. Had you bet Hurts’ ATD prop in every game, you would’ve been up +3.5U.
• RB Boston Scott continues to be a Giants killer. Scott has scored in nine straight games vs. the G-Men. Had you bet his ATD prop against the Giants over the last two regular seasons, you would've been up +16.3U.
• The Eagles were the only team to have eight players with positive profits for Anytime TDs.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: FB Derek Watt +33U
Biggest hit of season: Derek Watt +2800 (Week 8 vs. Eagles)

• WR Diontae Johnson was the only player in the NFL to have at least 100 targets (16 red-zone targets) and not record a touchdown. His average ATD odds last season: +225 (30% implied probability).
• RB Najee Harris finished at +3.9U with 10 TDs in 17 games (scored in seven of them). His highest ATD odds: +160.
• Two FBs were top two in ATD profits for the Steelers: Derek Watt (+30U) and Connor Heyward (+7U).

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: FB Kyle Juszczyk +5.5U
Biggest hit of season: WR Ray-Ray McCloud +900 (Week 7 vs. Chiefs)

• From Weeks 7-18, RB Christian McCaffrey scored a TD in 8-of-11 games and finished +2.9U as a 49er.
• QB Brock Purdy may not be a prototypical runner, but he had seven red-zone carries in six starts. He scored against the Bucs in the regular season and the Seahawks in the playoffs.
• FB Kyle Juszczyk was profitable in 2022, but his TDs have declined in each of the last three seasons. After scoring six TDs in 2020, he has four combined in the following two seasons (33 games). In 2022, he only had 6 red-zone touches.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: TE Colby Parkinson +8U
Biggest hit of season: Colby Parkinson +1800 (Week 1 vs. Broncos)

• QB Geno Smith hasn’t had much ATD success with Seattle. As a Seahawk, he’s only scored two rushing TDs in 21 games. His average ATD odds in 2022 were +490.
• WR Tyler Lockett went on a tear from Weeks 8-14 with touchdowns in each game. His average ATD odds over that stretch were +150.
• Of receivers with at least 15 red-zone targets, DK Metcalf had the second-lowest catch rate at 26%. The positive spin is he ranked first in target share in the red zone with 40.3% target rate.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: Russell Gage +9.7U
Biggest hit of season: Ko Kieft +1600 (Week 12 vs. Browns)

• Don’t even think about betting on QB Baker Mayfield. He has six rushing TDs in 72 career games (8.3% TD rate), with 18 red-zone rushing attempts.
• WR Mike Evans finished with only 14 red-zone targets in 2022, his lowest total since 2018.
• When targeting ATD props for opponents of the Bucs, look for players who line up exclusively in the slot. The Buccaneers were last in TDs allowed to the slot in 2022.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: TE Chigoziem Okonkwo +33.8U
Biggest hit of season: Chigoziem Okonkwo +4000 (Week 4 vs. Colts)

• It was a season to forget for QB Ryan Tannehill. After finishing 2021 as the second-most profitable ATD scorer (+13U), Tannehill finished with only two TDs in 2022, his lowest number in a season since becoming the Titans’ starter.
• RB Derrick Henry had ATD odds at plus-money in two games last season – scored each time – and scored in 9-of-16 games played. He finished at +2.6U.
• The leaders in red-zone targets at WR (Robert Woods) and TE (Austin Hooper) are no longer on the Titans. They combined for 24 targets to the end zone in 2022.

Most profitable TD scorer in 2022: WR Jahan Dotson +13.2U
Biggest hit of season: WR Dax Milne +2500 (Week 9 vs. Vikings)

• QB Sam Howell checks a lot of boxes to be a profitable ATD bet. He ran for a TD in his lone start in 2022 (vs. Dallas); in his last collegiate season, he racked up 11 TDs. Look for his ATD odds to be +500 or greater in the opening month of the season.
• WR Jahan Dotson was fourth on the team in red-zone targets — he still led the Commanders with seven TDs.
• RB Brian Robinson may be tabbed as the starter, but he only had 12 targets in 12 games. RB2 Antonio Gibson finished with 58 targets (seven in the red zone) and had nearly the same amount of red-zone carries as Robinson.