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49ers-Chiefs Player Props: Expert Bet on Patrick Mahomes Under

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Kara Durrette/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.

49ers-Chiefs Player Props: Expert Bet on Patrick Mahomes Under

Sunday, Feb 11
6:30pm ET
CBS
Patrick Mahomes Under 261.5 Passing Yards (-115)

I get why his number would be a bit inflated since most of the money has come in on the over.

To be clear, I’m not fading Mahomes in this market because I think he’s going to struggle in this game. In fact, it’s quite the opposite.

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Mahomes has been playing some of the best football of his career over the past several weeks, but he’s only cleared this once over the last five games. This isn’t the typical Mahomes-led Chiefs offense we’ve seen in the Super Bowl for the fourth time.

The Kansas City defense has been playing at such a high level that it’s taken a ton of pressure off of the offense. That allows the Chiefs offense to have a much more conservative approach. For example, 33% of Mahomes pass attempts have been at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, which is a career high.

Mahomes has been taking fewer shots downfield, and the strength of the 49ers defense has been its pass coverage. I expect the Chiefs to attack that and lean on their run game with Isiah Pacheco. Mahomes also tends to scramble more in the playoffs and big games, which can eat into his passing volume.

All of these factors and more lead me to project his median closer to 248.5 yards and a 60% chance to stay under this.

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