AJ Dillon NFL Player Props: Bet for Packers vs Giants
Via Perry Knotts/Getty Images. Pictured: AJ Dillon #28 of the Green Bay Packers runs across the field during an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on November 12, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Aaron Jones will miss tonight's matchup, but despite the perceived perception of an immense workload, I still see an edge in taking AJ Dillon to go under his reception line in this difficult matchup.
Dillon averages 1.2 targets per game without Aaron Jones. However, he has failed to go over this prop in four out of five games. The simple reason is that he is not being utilized as a pass-catching specialist. Over the last two weeks, that role has been handed to both Patrick Taylor and James Robinson (now Kenyan Drake, who was just recently signed).
Taylor is running an average of 14.0 routes, with 82% coming from long-distance downs and 68% from the two-minute drill, per Pro Football Focus. He is being used as the preferred back, which limits Dillon's ability to catch balls on passing downs.
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As for the matchup, it's also important to remember that the Giants generate pressure and play man coverage at the second-highest rate, which forces opposing running backs to stay to block more and affects target percentage.
As a unit, the Giants permit the third-fewest targets (4.58) to opposing running backs, with Christian McCaffrey and Tony Pollard being past victims held to no catches. Only two of Dillon's 20 total receptions this season come against man coverage instead of zone.
Finally, there's the game script. Vegas is treating the Packers on the road as six-point favorites, meaning there could be even more upside if the game gets out of hand and the Packers need to run the ball to drain clock down the stretch.
Pick: AJ Dillon Under 2.5 Receptions (-130 at FanDuel)
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