Falcons vs Cardinals Odds & Pick: Over/Under Prediction for Kyler Murray Debut

Falcons vs. Cardinals odds have Atlanta installed as a road favorite against Arizona in Week 10. The Falcons are -2 on the spread with a game total over/under of 43.5.

The Falcons have lost three of their last four games; the Cardinals are on a six-game losing skid since their shocking upset of the Cowboys. The Cardinals are tied for the worst record in the NFL (with the Panthers), but they are welcoming back star quarterback Kyler Murray, who's set to make his season debut after suffering a torn ACL last season.

Arizona is finally getting some positive momentum with Murray's return while Atlanta desperate for a win. Where is the betting value? Continue reading for my pick.

Falcons vs. Cardinals Prediction

Pick: Over 43.5 (-110) | Play to 44

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Falcons and Cardinals match up statistically:

Falcons vs. Cardinals DVOA Breakdown

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Overall DVOA	24	31
Pass DVOA	23	31
Rush DVOA	15	30

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Overall DVOA	27	25
Pass DVOA	27	28
Rush DVOA	13	9

The Falcons are coming off one of the more bizarre losses you'll ever see in the NFL.

They seemed to be totally in control against the Vikings when Joshua Dobbs entered the game last week, but Dobbs, who had been with the team for just a couple of days, put on a dazzling performance to lead a comeback and win the game. Atlanta's defense is 25th in defensive DVOA after getting shredded by Dobbs and Will Levis over the last two weeks.

Defensively, the Cardinals have been even worse. They are 31st in defensive DVOA and there's a decent gap between them and the team in 30th (Bears). The Cardinals have really struggled against both facets of offense. Arizona is 30th in rush defense DVOA and 31st in pass defense DVOA. Against a Falcons team that is capable of both running and passing, that is a dangerous formula.

The Falcons offense has certainly been more explosive since promoting Taylor Heinicke to starting quarterback. Last week, Atlanta scored 28 points, which is its highest point total of the season. The Falcons also scored 23 the week prior, which was their highest total since Week 2 at the time.

It is a small sample size, but amongst qualified quarterbacks, Heinicke is 21st in EPA+CPOE composite; Desmond Ridder is 30th.

For the Cardinals offense, it has been a bit of a downward spiral after a relatively strong start.

Dobbs became less and less effective and was eventually traded to the Vikings. The loss of James Conner was also devastating to the run game, which was one of the best early in the season. However, Conner is expected back this week, along with Murray.

Even a rusty Murray is an exponentially massive upgrade over Clayton Tune. Atlanta's defense really struggled to stop the scrambling, backyard football plays that Dobbs created last week. That is, of course, how Murray loves to play and he should be able to create more problems.

With Murray and Conner returning, the Cardinals should be able to run the ball effectively. The Cardinals are 13th in rush DVOA, despite missing their bell-cow back the past few weeks. That should only open things up more for Murray to pass the ball on Atlanta's poor defense.

These are two of the bottom-eight defenses in the NFL. Heinicke has injected a bit of life into the Falcons' offense and Murray and Conner should do the same for the Cardinals.

Both teams should be able to step up and contribute to getting this game over the total. I would bet the over/under up to 44 with a score of 24-20 or 24-21 entirely possible.

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Pick: Over 43.5 | Play to 44

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