Our football staff is focused on nine of Sunday's biggest games for our NFL predictions in Week 8 on November 1.
First, we'll target Ravens vs. Bills and Vikings vs. Lions in the early window. Later in the afternoon, we have a pair of picks for Patriots vs. Dolphins and Chiefs vs. Broncos. We also have picks for Browns vs. Steelers, Colts vs. Jaguars, and more.
Let's dive into our expert NFL picks and best bets for the Week 8 Sunday slate.
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NFL Predictions & Picks — Week 8
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ravens vs Bills
By Stuckey
We are doing the injury dance with Lamar Jackson again this week, but all indications point to him taking the field on Sunday. If he plays, this line will crash through the key number of three, making +3.5 a valuable position to secure if you can.
Jackson has been an absolute force when healthy, ranking first overall in adjusted EPA per play and second in success rate, while simultaneously generating the highest average air yards in the league.
He gets a dream matchup against a Buffalo defense that is a complete disaster. The Bills are 31st in EPA per play, 30th in Success Rate, and 26th in DVOA. Despite the constant praise for their defensive front, they are 26th in sack rate, 24th in pressure rate, and 31st in quick pressure rate.
The Bills are caught in a schematic purgatory, trying to execute a new system with Sean McDermott’s old personnel, leaving their linebackers and safeties hopelessly exposed in coverage.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen has been erratic, logging 11 turnover-worthy plays to just seven big-time throws. His worst performance of the year came against the Chargers, which is vital because Baltimore deploys similar defensive scheme and principles.
Trending: Jackson is one of the most profitable quarterbacks in NFL history in this spot. As an underdog, he is a staggering 13-2 against the spread, covering by an average of 9.0 points, while winning 10 of those games outright.
Pick: Ravens +3.5 (-122)
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Colts vs Jaguars
By Stuckey
The fire sale has officially begun in Indianapolis, and I could only look toward laying the points with the Jaguars here.
The Colts traded away Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner, completely waving the white flag on the season, and their locker room morale has to be at rock bottom.
On the field, this is a nightmare matchup. Jonathan Taylor is visibly declining — his broken tackle rate has plummeted — and Indianapolis simply won't be able to run the ball against a stout Jacksonville front.
With Nelson gone, the Colts' offensive line will be overwhelmed, and Daniel Jones is a statue in the pocket who isn't fully healthy.
Throw in cluster injuries across the Colts' secondary facing a well-coached Jaguars team coming fresh off a bye week, and this line movement makes perfect sense.
The live line will probably be touching 14.5 by the middle of the second quarter.
Pick: Jaguars -10 (-105)
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Browns vs Steelers
According to Action Network's Luck Rankings, the Browns are currently grading out as the single luckiest team in the NFL, pulling off four outright wins as an underdog.
However, the Browns are playing much closer to a two-win team, constantly benefiting from extreme variance, like opponents failing to convert fourth downs against them at an unsustainable rate.
While the situational spot heavily favors Cleveland — Pittsburgh is coming off a trip to Europe without a bye week, a spot where teams are 0-8 ATS over the last two years — I have been burned fading this Steelers team too many times.
Cleveland is also playing its third road game in four weeks.
I don't love it, but the Browns' luck has to run out eventually.
Pick: Steelers -3.5 (-110)
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Vikings vs Lions
By Nick Galaida
Kyler Murray has faced the easiest set of pass defenses of any starting quarterback this season — and still, he's posted a negative EPA/play in two of his four games.
Jared Goff has consistently outperformed matchup expectations this season, but the Vikings have held every quarterback they have faced under their season average for EPA/play.
There is nothing about this game that screams shootout. Expect touchdowns to be at a premium in this big NFC North game.
Pick: Over 46.5 (-102)
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Titans vs Bengals
By Evan Abrams
I couldn't officially pull the trigger for the contest, but this number is simply too high. I lean toward the Titans catching double digits.
Joe Burrow has a terrible habit of playing with his food when heavily favored, and I just don't see the Bengals caring enough about Tennessee to win this by margin.
Historically, Burrow has been favored by more than a touchdown 10 times in his career, and he is a dismal 3-7 ATS in those spots. In fact, he has closed as an underdog of more than one possession four times, losing two of them outright.
Heavy favorites have been a dreadful bet this season across the board: teams laying six or more points are an ugly 8-21-3 ATS.
Grab the 12.5, turn off the television, and don't watch.
Pick: Titans +12.5 (-110)
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Falcons vs Buccaneers
By Nick Galaida
Tampa Bay's pass defense has quietly been among the best in the league this season.
The Buccaneers have held five of seven quarterbacks under their season average for EPA/play. They have the second-best schedule-adjusted EPA/play allowed through the air during their last four games, trailing only the Vikings.
The weather increasingly looks like it could play a role in this NFC South matchup, too. The current forecast shows impactful wind and a high chance of rain in the area around kickoff — both of which would likely contribute to a lower-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-105)
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Patriots vs Dolphins
By Stuckey
Sharp money has clearly hit the Dolphins, driving this number down, but if this spread dips below the key number of seven, I will be tempted to lay the points with New England.
Drake Maye has proven time and time again that he shreds inferior defensive units. He gets to tee off against a Miami secondary that currently profiles as the worst pass defense in the NFL.
The one factor keeping me off this currently is the weather. The forecast in Miami calls for 90% humidity, potential rain, and high winds, which serves as the ultimate equalizer for an outmatched defense.
If the weather clears up and the line drops, the Patriots will be a strong play.
Pick: Patriots -7 (-115)
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Chiefs vs Broncos
By Evan Abrams
Fading Patrick Mahomes is always a terrifying proposition, but his historical track record against the spread as a road favorite within the division is impossible to ignore.
In his last 10 road starts against AFC West opposition, Mahomes is a dismal 2-7-1 ATS.
Meanwhile, backing Denver in this specific role has been very profitable: the Broncos are 25-12 ATS as a home underdog when holding a record above .500.
Pick: Broncos +1.5 (-115)
- For more Chiefs-Broncos coverage, check out my full betting preview.
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Eagles vs Commanders
By Doug Kezirian
Whenever you get the opportunity to back Dan Quinn as a favorite in a prime situational spot, you have to take a long look, and Washington is the correct side here.
The betting market seemingly bought into a false narrative last week that the Eagles were going to circle the wagons and rally around Tanner McKee.
The reality is that Philadelphia's season is over. You can officially stick a fork in them. The Eagles have dropped five consecutive games, the locker room culture is completely lost following the fallout from the Jalen Hurts injury, and the front office is clearly treating this as a reload year.
The offensive line remains a total mess, and practically the entire running back room is on the injury report. After failing to cover on Monday Night Football, this exhausted Eagles roster now has to travel on a short week to face a Washington team that just proved it can get up for a big spot.
As long as Jayden Daniels is playing, the Commanders will generate more than enough offense to cover this spread. McKee simply does not possess the talent to be a starting quarterback in this league, and Washington’s defense will dictate the game.
Pick: Commanders -5.5 (-120)
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