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Bengals vs Jets NFL Week 3 Pick, Prediction

Bengals vs Jets NFL Week 3 Pick, Prediction article feature image

Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Ja’Marr Chase (left) and Joe Burrow.

  • The winless Bengals are favored today against the Jets.
  • Cincinnati has lost to Pittsburgh and Dallas through two weeks, while New York is 1-1.
  • The Great Foosini previews the game and makes his betting pick below.

Bengals vs. Jets Odds

Sunday, Sept. 25
1 p.m. ET
Bengals Odds
-109o / -112u
Jets Odds
-109o / -112u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

I love this matchup.

The AFC Champions enter 0-2 off of back-to-back field-goal losses, and the Jets somehow enter 1-1 despite being down by 13 with under two minutes left to play last week. If it were not for the Dolphins, this would have easily been the craziest comeback of the weekend. It probably still was.

On top of the must-win scenario for Cincinnati, it's also a 'revenge' situation from the Mike White loss from last year. The Bengals were 11.5-point favorites, but the Jets pulled off an eerily similar comeback to last week, scoring two touchdowns late in the fourth quarter to shock both the Bengals and the Jets, to be honest.

After that insane high for the Jets last year, they traveled to Indianapolis and were thoroughly smacked, losing by an incredibly soft 15 (they scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter). Will we see a similar result here with Joe Burrow in a must-win scenario, or can the Jets maintain the momentum? Us Jets fans always expect the worst, and I think we'll be proven right here.

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Bengals vs. Jets Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bengals and Jets match up statistically:

Bengals vs. Jets DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA3232
Pass DVOA2932
Rush DVOA2921
Overall DVOA1310
Pass DVOA1514
Rush DVOA1810

I believe people are talking about this whole Bengals offensive line situation and their pace to allow the most sacks in the history of the modern world. It's obviously a concern that must have been the focal point of practice and film, but we can cut the Bengals a bit of slack given some of the talented pass rushers they had to face in their first two contests.

Cincinnati had to face T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons, who recorded one and two sacks, respectively, but wreaked havoc in the backfield. They are probably the top-two pass rushers in the league, and while the Bengals offensive line needs to figure something out, you won't find many teams who can stop those two.

Luckily for the Bengals, the Jets don't pressure the quarterback well, racking up only three sacks so far this year. Their rush defense is above average, but they have trouble getting to opposing quarterbacks.

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This is the perfect opportunity for the Bengals to come alive offensively. Their DVOA statistics are obviously not reflective of their true, expected performance, and the Jets' secondary seems to be the worst group in the league. Matching up against arguably the top QB-WR duo and having to take care of the rest of their top tier receiving corps will  be difficult.

The Jets boast (yes, boast) an above-average offense for at least one point in a season (woo!), but again, these stats are probably not indicative of their true performance for the rest of season.

Offensive weapons buoy the group as the offensive line remains subpar, and Joe Flacco is likely the worst starting quarterback in the league. Expect the offense to sputter for the next several weeks and game results to be even worse as the Jets embark on a brutal eight-game stretch against formidable opponents.

Betting Picks

There are a few angles I love exploiting here in this matchup. The most obvious is buying low and selling high on two teams who should be headed in different directions moving forward. The former is historically profitable in the NFL, where teams are 37-23 (62%) ATS in Week 3 since 2010 after starting the seasons 0-2 SU and ATS.

Second, we have a corollary to last year after the Jets beat the Bengals at home and went on to get crushed by the Colts the following week. This is a one-game sample, but the Jets have not changed much outside of a few rookie additions, and we can expect this young squad to follow a similar pattern in line with historical performance.

Finally, looking again at last year, the Bengals came into the matchup as an 11.5-point favorite. Their stock rose as the season progressed and entered the 2022-2023 NFL season, while the Jets remained relatively the same.

This game currently sits at Bengals -6 in the market, which begs the question: what changed to make this line five points lower? The Bengals did statistically overachieve last year, but justifying a 5.5-point move toward the Jets seems like a significant overreaction to this year's performances.

It will pain me to sit in MetLife and watch this unfold, but I have this as a 7-10-point win for the Bengals. That said, monitor the line as it could change heading into Sunday. Ideally we can snag the Bengals at -5.5, but I like this up to -6.5

FanDuel Quickslip: Bengals -6 | Bet to -6.5

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