Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds: Money Moving AFC Championship Game Spread Off Key Betting Number

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds: Money Moving AFC Championship Game Spread Off Key Betting Number article feature image
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Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images. Pictured: Two Buffalo Bills helmets

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds

Bills Odds +3 (-120)
Chiefs Odds -3 (+100)
Over/Under 53
PRO Projections Chiefs -2.5 | O/U: 54.6
Time | Channel  6:40 p.m. ET | CBS
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The big story heading into Sunday’s AFC Championship Game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs is the health of Patrick Mahomes.

The stud quarterback left last weekend’s Divisional Round game against the Cleveland Browns with concussion-like symptoms and is considered questionable against Buffalo (click here for the latest Mahomes injury news).

Even with Mahomes’ status still up in the air, sportsbooks are offering odds, and therefore taking bets, on Bills vs. Chiefs, albeit at lower limits than Bucs vs. Packers, which has no major injury concerns.

Still, even as a circled game (which is the term used for matchups with lower betting limits), the Bills vs. Chiefs market is moving and even more importantly, leaking off the most important spread in NFL betting.

Using the latest NFL odds and our proprietary betting data, let’s take a detailed look at the updated Bills vs. Chiefs spread, what’s moving it and why this movement is so important for bettors.

Note: Odds as of Tuesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.


Bills vs. Chiefs Spread Movement

At the time of writing the Chiefs are 3-point favorites at many sportsbooks across the market, but with a vig of +100.

This means that a winning bet on the Chiefs would pay even-money. For example, if a bettor lays $100 on Kansas City and it covers the spread, that bettor would be returned $200 (the initial investment plus $100 in winnings).

However, behind 67% of the money wagered landing on the Bills, a handful of shops, like DraftKings Sportsbook, have ticked down to -2.5, a key development for NFL bettors.

From 2003-2019, 14.8% of NFL games finished with a margin of victory of three points, by far the most common margin over that span (click here to see the full breakdown of NFL key betting numbers).

If you’re ready to bet on the Chiefs now, and that’s a big “if” with Mahomes’ status still unknown, you can do worse than snagging one of the -2.5s out there right now.

And if you like the Bills, don’t settle for +2.5 when there are plenty of +3s, even with a little steeper vigs, available.

Be sure to download The Action Network’s FREE mobile app to monitor the latest line movement and expert picks for both of this weekend’s NFL Conference Championship Games.

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