Can Packers Continue to Defy Odds, Trends vs. 49ers?
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The Green Bay Packers have defied the odds and trends all year long. However, doing so against the San Francisco 49ers might be their toughest test to date.
Simply put, there are an overwhelming number of factors that point toward San Francisco punching its ticket to the NFC Championship Game. After all, there’s a reason they’re just the 21st team since 1980 to be favored in every regular season game, and exactly two-thirds of those teams advanced to the conference championship game.
The 49ers went 12-5 and didn’t just beat teams — they beat them up. They routinely won by double-digits, which is significant considering they’re 9.5-point favorites over the Packers.
San Francisco became only the seventh team in the Super Bowl era to win at least nine games by 16 points or more. Only two of those teams failed to win a postseason game. Additionally, the 49ers had a league-high 11 wins of 10 or more points this season and became the 13th team in NFL history to accomplish that feat. Eight of those 10 teams won at least one playoff game.
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Meanwhile, San Francisco’s offense has been an unstoppable force when at full strength, like they'll be on Saturday. The Deebo Samuel-Christian McCaffrey pairing has been especially potent since McCaffrey arrived midway through the 2022 campaign. The 49ers are 20-3 straight up and 16-7 against the spread with both healthy and playing.
San Francisco’s offense boasts some of the league’s top skill players. In fact, it’s a historic unit as the 49ers are the first team in NFL history with one running back (McCaffrey), two wide receivers (Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk) and a tight end (George Kittle) to all have 1,000 or more total yards. Given all that, it shouldn’t come as a shock that the 49ers’ offense ranks first in total DVOA, first in passing and second in rushing. Conversely, Green Bay’s defense is a train wreck. It’s ranked 27th in total DVOA, 27th against the pass and 21st against the run.
Still, if any team can defy these overwhelming trends, it’s the Packers.
Green Bay became the first No. 7 seed to ever make the Divisional Round. It was plus money (+165) to make the playoffs in the preseason for the first time since 2009. The Packers expected win total of 7.5 was also their lowest since 2007. However, despite beginning the year 3-5, Green Bay caught fire midway through the season and hit both marks.
Meanwhile, the Packers have had success as underdogs of seven points or more in recent years. They’re 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS since 2020, covering the spread by 10 points per game. Notably, three of those games came with Jordan Love under center. Love’s had more success against winning teams than losing ones, going 5-2 ATS against teams above .500 and 4-6 ATS against those under .500. He’s also covered five straight games as an underdog.
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The 49ers and Packers are no strangers to squaring off in the postseason. This marks their 10th meeting, with San Francisco holding a 5-4 edge. If Green Bay wants to knot the series, it'll have to do what it has done all year, defy all expectations.
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