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Chargers vs. Jaguars Player Props: Value on Justin Herbert Pass Attempts

Chargers vs. Jaguars Player Props: Value on Justin Herbert Pass Attempts article feature image
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Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers.

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Justin Herbert Pass Attempts

Prop Herbert Over 37.5 Attempts (-130)
Matchup Chargers vs. Jaguars
Time 8:15 p.m. ET
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Saturday’s playoff games conclude in Jacksonville, where it’ll be an exciting battle between two of the league’s most electric young quarterbacks: Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. The Chargers’ strength has always been their pass-friendly offense, and a close matchup against the Jaguars will undoubtedly emphasize that strength.

Herbert is averaging 41.1 pass attempts this season, achieving this prop in 10 of his 17 games. Establishing the run has been difficult for the Chargers’ 22nd-ranked DVOA run offense, according to Football Outsiders. Their 31st in EPA per rush offense is a clear weakness things won’t get more easier in this spot.

Thanks to their offseason linebacker upgrades, the Jaguars have been much better at limiting production on the ground than their previous reputation. They rank 11th in DVOA vs. the run and hold opposing running backs to a measly 3.92 yards per carry, ranking 27th lowest in the league.


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Instead, the optimal way to move the ball vs. the Jaguars has been through the air. Quarterbacks have found success against their 30th DVOA vs. the pass defense averaging 250.47 yards per game, fifth-most in the league.

Most importantly, they are allowing the seventh-most pass attempts. The gunslinger will be without their deep target Mike Williams (back), who averages 14.2 yards/catch and leads the team with a 12-yard average depth-of-target. His big-play ability will be missed, making it likely that Herbert will need more plays to drive the ball down the field for effective drives.

He will still have an assortment of weapons, including Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Gerald Everett, to move the chains. Herbert twice attempted 47 passes in Weeks 12 and 13 with Williams out.

In a meaningful game that projects to be a one-score affair, especially against a pass-funnel offense like the Jaguars, Herbert will need to crank up his volume all four quarters and should be more than capable of hitting his props tonight.

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