Best Chiefs-Rams MNF Props: Over/Under 9.5 Rushing Yards for Jared Goff?
- There are two props offering betting value in the Monday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
- This piece will analyze the following prop bets: Over/under 5 total sacks and Rams QB Jared Goff over/under 9.5 rushing yards.
There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams matchup on Monday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Action Network’s public betting data will often be used in this data-driven analysis of props.
So will the player props tool at FantasyLabs, which takes each prop bet listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverages them against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.
*All odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Monday
Chiefs/Rams Total Sacks
The pick: Under 5.0 sacks (-115)
The Chiefs offensive line will have its hands full against Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh and the rest of the Rams defense, which ranks No. 1 in pressure rate (40.79%), per Sports Info Solutions.
However, of the 33.6% of dropbacks on which quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been pressured this year, he’s been sacked on just 13.4%, the sixth-lowest rate among quarterbacks, per Pro Football Focus, which likely has a lot to do with Mahomes’ ability to roll out and make plays out of the pocket.
The Chiefs have been throttled on defense this season, but they’ve been successful at getting after the quarterback, ranking 12th in pressure rate and eighth in adjusted sack rate.
But Rams quarterback Jared Goff is behind one of the best pass-blocking units in the league, getting pressured on just 29.8% of his dropbacks while being sacked on just 18.3% of those pressured dropbacks.
It’s essentially strength vs. strength for these pass-rushing and pass-blocking units, but Goff and Mahomes combined have been sacked two or fewer times in 17 of 20 games, so I like the under.
Rams QB Jared Goff
The pick: Under 9.5 rushing yards (-115)
Overall, Goff is averaging just 3.0 rushes and 8.2 rushing yards per game this year, while clearing 9.5 yards in four of 10 games.
The Goff rushing prop is the lone prop in the FantasyLabs Pro Tool that owns a bet quality of 10. Props with a bet quality of 10 this year presently have a hit rate of 66%.
Also, you haven’t truly lived until you’ve sweated a single-digit rushing-yard prop from a non-mobile quarterback.