Bengals-Steelers Betting Preview: Is Pittsburgh’s Playoff Motivation Being Overvalued?

Betting odds: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

• Spread: Steelers -14.5
• Over/Under: 45.5
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: The Steelers are in must-win territory, and for portions of the early week, were nearly 17-point favorites. Now they're just measly 14.5-point favorites.

Early sharp money came in on the Bengals plus all those points, which drove the line down to Steelers -14. There has since been a bit of buyback that has pushed the line up a wee bit to -14.5 at the time of writing (see live odds here).

The under has seen quite the pounding. With more than 90% of the dough, as well as a steam move, the incessant onslaught has caused the total to fall from 48 to 45.5. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Since 2003, teams with a winning percentage between .500 and .667 (like the Steelers) have gone 85-103-5 (45%) against the spread when playing at home in Weeks 15-17. — John Ewing

Since 2003, no quarterback has been more profitable ATS in Week 17 than Ben Roethlisberger, who is 10-0 straight-up and 8-2 ATS, covering by 7.3 points per game, according to our Bet Labs data.

When Big Ben is at home against a divisional opponent in Week 17, he's 4-0 SU and ATS, covering by 8.6 points per game. — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: After a disastrous Week 16, the Steelers need lots of help to make the playoffs. The Ravens have to lose at home against Cleveland for Pittsburgh to have a prayer.

If that happens, the Steelers get in with a win or a tie against the Bengals.

Our simulations aren't bullish Pittsburgh's odds, giving it just an 18.7% chance to make the postseason. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Steelers WRs vs. Bengals Secondary

Antonio Brown has weathered the storm of his "down" season and emerged as the overall PPR WR2 through 16 weeks. He's dominated December with massive performances against the Chargers (10-154-1) and Saints (14-185-2).

JuJu Smith-Schuster hasn't gone anywhere, either, and is fantasy's PPR WR8 entering Week 17.

Next up is the Bengals' league-worst scoring defense that ranks 29th in Football Outsiders' overall and pass DVOA.

Plus Cincinnati hasn't exactly slowed AB down over the years:

Roethlisberger boasts the week's third-best combined net yards per pass attempt rate. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Steelers

The Steelers are fighting for their playoff lives while the Bengals are too injured to have the luxury of resting starters.

Cincinnati's de facto No. 1 receiver Tyler Boyd (knee), linebacker Jordan Evans (ankle) and Vontaze Burfict (concussion), along with cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick (shoulder) and Tony McRae (hamstring), should be considered very questionable.

The Steelers are tentatively expected to welcome back James Conner (ankle), while Brown (knee) is also likely to suit up. The outlook is less optimistic for safety Sean Davis (quad) and linebacker Vince Williams (toe).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Hartitz

DFS edge: The Steelers' 30-point implied team total trails only the Chiefs in Week 17.

Roethlisberger and Brown rank near as one of the best stacks against an abysmal Bengals defense that ranks 28th in pass DVOA.

Even though they’re expensive, they boast the third-highest combined Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel in our FantasyLabs Models. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Bengals +14.5

This is an incredible number when not viewed through the prism of playoff scenarios — it's 14.5 in a division game featuring a favorite that has been largely underwhelming with results, yet still heavily bet in most games.

The fact that Pittsburgh needs to win this game to have any shot of making the playoffs might sound sexy, but it isn't going to make a tackle or defend a pass or swim-move an offensive lineman.

In other words, that fact shouldn't impact the market like it seems to be.

When you bet motivation, you’re really flipping a coin.

The on-field matchups are in the Steelers' favor, just not to this degree. I like the Bengals at more than two touchdowns. — Ken Barkley

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.