Cowboys vs. Commanders Player Props | CeeDee Lamb & Jahan Dotson
Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images. Pictured: CeeDee Lamb.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Player Props | CeeDee Lamb & Jahan Dotson
I'm betting overs on one receiver from each side for my Cowboys vs. Commanders player props. Check out the Thanksgiving picks and breakdowns below.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 4:30 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
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I can’t believe I’m advocating an over on a line this high, but here we are.
Part of the thinking here involves how the Cowboys are using Tony Pollard. Dallas’ RB1 had a season-high 32 touches in Week 2 and then 26 the next week. Since then, he’s gotten more than 17 touches just once. Even in blowout wins over the Patriots, Rams and Panthers, Pollard registered just 11, 12 and 12 rush attempts.
While Mike McCarthy took over play-calling duties this season because he wanted to establish the run, he hasn’t done it with Pollard. Part of the reason is because of how well Dak Prescott has played, completing what would be a career-high 70.1% of his passes.
The key target for Prescott has been Lamb, who came back down to earth a bit in Week 12 after registering at least 11 catches and 150 receiving yards in the Cowboys’ three previous games. The bona fide WR1 has gone over this number five times in 10 games and has an excellent matchup to make it six.
The Commanders defense ranks 10th in DVOA against the run but is dead last against the pass. See what Tommy DeVito did to this defense? Imagine what the Cowboys will be capable of.
Specifically for Lamb’s matchup, the Commanders are last in DVOA against opposing WR1s, giving up an average of 9.2 receptions and 102.7 receiving yards per game. That’s absolutely bananas.
In Chris Raybon’s initial projections for this game, he had Lamb pegged for 94.7 yards. I’m comfortably betting Lamb’s over and for him to be eating turkey on the field during a postgame interview after a big Cowboys win.
Pick: CeeDee Lamb Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Dotson has gone over this line five times in 11 games, but we’re getting a juicy plus number that stood out to me right away.
The second-year receiver started out slowly this season, catching just 17-of-30 targets for an 8.24 yards-per-reception average in the Commanders’ first five games. After going without a catch in Week 6, Dotson hauled in 17 catches on 26 targets and averaged 12.94 yards per grab. Naturally, he went without a catch in Week 10, as well.
After just three catches last week, Dotson now faces an elite Cowboys pass defense, although he registered lines of 3/43/1 and 3/72/0 against Dallas as a rookie.
Dotson has gone under this total more times than over this season, but he hasn’t gone three straight games without four catches. Likely facing a negative game script against a Cowboys team that is dominating right now, I’m betting Sam Howell will look for Dotson often on Thanksgiving.
I wouldn’t have a huge lean either way, but getting +140 on the over is all the convincing I need. I’m not putting a full unit on this because of the plus number, but I still like the pick.
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