Cowboys vs Dolphins Odds, Prediction, Pick | NFL Week 16
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Cowboys vs Dolphins Odds, Prediction, Pick | NFL Week 16
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
The latest Cowboys vs Dolphins odds have the Dolphins as 1-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 48.5 total points. My NFL pick for Christmas Eve is backing Dallas as a rare underdog.
Dallas lost in a blowout in Buffalo last week and is dealing with some key injuries along the offensive and defensive lines headed into this matchup. The Cowboys are jockeying with the Eagles for the NFC East title. The two squads are currently tied atop the standings but Philadelphia is likely to hold the tiebreaker if both finish 13-4. The tiebreaker shifts to Dallas if both teams drop a game on their remaining schedule.
The line suggests these two teams are even on a neutral field, but given the questions with Miami's health and the opportunity to buy Dallas after an embarrassing loss, Dallas is the side to bet. Find my Cowboys vs Dolphins prediction below.
Cowboys vs Dolphins Prediction
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Cowboys and Dolphins match up statistically:
Cowboys vs. Dolphins DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 9 | 13 | |
| Pass DVOA | 9 | 12 | |
| Rush DVOA | 13 | 20 |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 3 | 6 | |
| Pass DVOA | 3 | 6 | |
| Rush DVOA | 2 | 16 |
Miami's defense has been the best in the NFL in terms of EPA per play since Jalen Ramsey returned from injury midseason, but let's consider who they have faced in that timeframe.
For the season, the Dolphins have faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL. They've also faced Tim Boyle, Sam Howell, Aidan O'Connell, Will Levis and Zach Wilson in the last five games, so it shouldn't be much of a shock that the defense looked good. Even against the Titans two weeks ago, Miami allowed 8.2 yards per pass, 5.9 yards per play and melted down late in a loss.
The Eagles tallied 355 yards, the Chiefs scored on each of their first three drives and the Bills scored on eight of their 10 full possessions at home way back in Week 4. Miami's pass-rush numbers benefitted from facing really bad QBs and the sacks looked good as a result, but the defensive pass rush doesn't look nearly as daunting without Jaelan Phillips, who's out for the season with an achilles injury.
Then there's the concerning injury report for Miami. The Dolphins had 16 players either miss or be limited in practice on Friday. Raheem Mostert was a full participant and has an excellent matchup against a weak Dallas run defense, but De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill and key offensive linemen Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson are listed as questionable.
Even if all four play, it's clear none will be operating at 100%. The Dolphins offense is so reliant on precision, timing and speed and there's the potential for high-profile mistakes against this aggressive Dan Quinn defense that likes to gamble.
Kyle Shanahan has had a lot of success in the past against Quinn's defense and Mike McDaniel is a Shanahan disciple, but the Cowboys are underrated at taking away the middle of the field in the pass game.
Cowboys vs. Dolphins Picks | FanDuel
One of the strengths of Vic Fangio's defense is disguising coverages after the snap. Given how elite Dak Prescott is pre-snap, it's key to throw different looks and challenge his ability to throw down the field.
The Bills showcased the gameplan for this in Buffalo. Keep two safeties high, force Prescott to use his legs and the check downs. The question is whether the Dolphins can pull this off given limitations due to injuries. The Cowboys will be without left tackle Tyron Smith, but Zack Martin is expected to play through injury.
Jevon Holland, Xavien Howard and Elijah Campbell — all key parts of Miami's secondary — are listed as questionable and did not practice Friday. The Dolphins' DVOA for the season has trended up from 13th to sixth in the weighted numbers, but it's hard to see Miami generating a ton of pass rush against Dallas' offensive line, even without Smith.
The Dolphins have the much more reliable run game offensively and the Cowboys will once again be without key run stopper Johnathan Hankins. Because of this, game state is especially important for both.
The Cowboys' pass rush should have success getting to Tua Tagovailoa, and that gets magnified if the Cowboys jump out ahead early.
Cowboys vs. Dolphins
Betting Picks & Predictions
The Cowboys may have had no answer for Buffalo's dominant offensive line and run game last week, but Miami is much more of a finesse team that Dallas matches up considerably better with.
Everyone is questioning the Cowboys following their offense's first blip in months, but it's time to buy back in. There's real signal to me in the Dolphins' splits against good and bad teams, and as a result, the Dolphins are overvalued in the market.
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