Bears vs Lions Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 14 Betting Pick
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Bears vs Lions Odds, Prediction
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
The latest Bears vs. Lions odds for NFL Week 14 have Detroit installed as a 3-point favorite on the spread with a game total of 43.5. However, my NFL pick for this game will be from the player prop market.
Bears running back D'Onta Foreman hasn't been fully healthy in almost a month, but he was removed from the Week 14 injury report and will be good to go against the Lions. I believe the situation lines up perfectly for him to go well over his yardage prop as Detroit will be without key defensive tackle Alim McNeill, who was placed on injured reserve due to a knee sprain.
Let's dive into this NFC North clash between Detroit and Chicago and make a Bears vs. Lions prediction.
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Bears vs Lions Pick
It is no secret that the Bears love to attack defenses on the ground. Chicago is fourth in rushing attempts per game with 31.3, as well as rushing play percentage at 48.5%.
In terms of pass frequency over expected based on the situation, the Bears run the ball 6% more than expected and run the ball at a higher rate than average at just about every down and distance.
Justin Fields’ return has been a catalyst for the rushing attack the last couple of weeks. He's rushed the ball 30 times in two starts since returning from injury.
However, for much of the season D’Onta Foreman has been the bell cow for the Bears. Foreman took over the lead back role in Week 5 and never looked back, eclipsing 15 carries and 65 yards in four of the next five games.
Foreman’s most recent start saw him only put up six rushes for 14 yards against this same Lions team. However, it was this game where Foreman injured his ankle, causing him to miss the remainder of that contest, as well as the Bears’ Week 12 win over Minnesota.
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In Foreman’s absence, rookie Roschon Johnson took over the lead-back role. He had 10 of Chicago's 16 rushing attempts by running backs, with the other six going to Khalil Herbert.
Foreman’s ankle is reportedly healed and I believe that he will reassume the role as the top dog in this backfield.
One point of concern with this pick is how good the Lions’ rush defense has been this season. They have the second-highest graded rush defense in the league, according to PFF. Their efficiency metrics are a bit worse but still solid as they rank eighth in EPA per rush allowed and 14th in rushing success rate allowed.
Detroit will be without its top run stuffer as defensive tackle Alim McNeill injured his knee against the Saints last weekend and was placed on injured reserve. This is a massive loss for Detroit as McNeill had been coming into his own as one of the top interior defenders in the league.
Among interior defenders who have played 50% of snaps this season, McNeill ranks sixth in PFF defensive grade at 88.1. Out of 69 qualifiers, McNeill ranks fifth in run defense grade and 13th in pass rushing grade.
Bears vs. Lions
Betting Picks & Predictions
I believe that Justin Fields’ recent surge is the main reason Foreman’s rushing line is so low. But Foreman has already proven that he's the best back on this team and should slot back into the starting job and get the bulk of carries.
While Fields is productive on the ground, I believe that Foreman’s presence will mitigate the amount of designed quarterback rushes. Foreman should have around 15 carries, which would most likely push him well over this yardage prop.
Detroit’s rush defense has been above average, but without McNeill, I think that Chicago could exploit them. Add in the elements — cold weather and moderate winds — and Foreman could be in line to have a good day.
At just 31.5 yards, I would take the over on Foreman all the way up to the 40s, but I would assume you won’t see it go that high as that would be a massive move. If you're looking for another way to play this, Foreman is +750 to have the most rushing yards in this game. This is obviously a riskier bet given you also have to account for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
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