Eagles vs Buccaneers Pick: NFL Wild Card Matchup Preview
Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Sirianni (left) and Todd Bowles.
Eagles vs Buccaneers Pick: NFL Wild Card Matchup Preview
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 44 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 44 -110o / -110u | +125 |
The Buccaneers made it out of the NFC South and will host a playoff game, despite entering the season with the third-worst odds of winning the division. It certainly wasn't a pretty path to winning the NFL’s worst division, but the Buccaneers still deserve to be in this spot.
Baker Mayfield has played really solid football this season. The Buccaneers’ biggest advantage in this game is their passing offense against the Eagles’ secondary as the Buccaneers rank eighth in EPA per dropback. Mayfield has been very efficient and it has been another monster year for Mike Evans. Tampa Bay should have some success against an Eagles secondary that ranked as the fifth-worst in the NFL in opponent EPA per dropback.
However, Mayfield’s health is a concern. Mayfield limped off the field multiple times in Carolina after entering that game with a rib injury. I expect Mayfield to play, but a couple of hard hits could knock him out and Tampa Bay would be at a major disadvantage with Kyle Trask at quarterback.
Despite their struggles down the stretch, if you look at the offense and defense of both teams, the Eagles offense will still be the best unit on the field. Their play slipped significantly the past few weeks, but they also played a gauntlet of a schedule. The Eagles had to play the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys again and the Seahawks on the road over the past two months. That doesn’t excuse the losses to the Cardinals and the Giants, but it does explain how Philadelphia could have simply run out of gas.
The major question will be the health of Philadelphia's offense. It appeared as if Jalen Hurts broke a finger against the Giants, though he did come in and play after that before being benched for Marcus Mariota once the Eagles' fate was sealed. A.J. Brown also suffered a knee injury against the Giants and although the Eagles don’t suspect that it's too serious, it'll most likely keep Brown out for this game. However, if Hurts can play, this offense should still have success against the Bucs.
The Eagles’ offense ranked eighth in offensive DVOA entering Week 18 and did it with a balanced attack as both their run and pass game rank inside the top 10. Tampa Bay's defense ranked 22nd in opponent yards per play and the Eagles should be able to grind them down, especially with their run game. The Eagles also have the No. 1 special teams unit in the NFL per DVOA, giving them a big advantage there over a Bucs special teams unit that ranks 18th.
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Eagles vs. Buccaneers Pick
Despite the Eagles disastrous past few weeks, Hurts is still a top-10 quarterback and this offense is incredibly dynamic. This group has plenty of postseason experience after last year’s Super Bowl run and knows how to win tight games. The switch from the regular season to the postseason could act as a mental reset as Philadelphia switches its focus from the playoff race to just winning this one game.
The Eagles’ defense has a lot of holes, but the Bucs’ offensive performances over the past two weeks have been uninspiring. Tampa Bay has been flat against the Saints and Panthers in two crucial games. The Bucs' solid passing numbers have also benefitted from playing a pretty weak schedule this season. Their lack of a rushing attack is also concerning because it makes them one-dimensional and easier to defend.
Getting the defending NFC champions under a field goal against the Bucs is a line worth grabbing. The line is already hitting Eagles -3 at some shops as 61% of the bets and 80% of the money is on the Eagles, as of Monday morning.
Despite the concerns that have grown over the past few weeks, the Eagles are the better team and should find a way to win this game.
Pick: Eagles -2.5 | Play to -3 |
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