Eagles vs Cardinals Odds & Picks | NFL Week 5

Eagles vs Cardinals Odds & Picks | NFL Week 5 article feature image

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: A.J. Brown.

  • The undefeated Eagles take on the Cardinals in the desert this afternoon.
  • Philadelphia has been a force to be reckoned with, while the Cardinals are an unimpressive 2-2.
  • John LanFranca previews the game and reveals his betting pick below.

Eagles vs. Cardinals Odds

Sunday, Oct. 9
4:25 p.m. ET
Eagles Odds
-110o / -110u
Cardinals Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The NFL’s only undefeated team goes up against a coach who’s 69% (20-9) against the spread as an underdog in his career. Something has to give.

All metrics point to the Eagles dominating this game with their units on both sides of the football ranking in the top four according to DVOA. They are the only team in the league who boasts such balance and they now travel to take on the Cardinals’ 29th ranked defense.

Can it really be this obvious? Yeah, it can.

Eagles vs. Cardinals Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Eagles and Cardinals match up statistically:

Eagles vs. Cardinals DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA429
Pass DVOA428
Rush DVOA611
Overall DVOA223
Pass DVOA252
Rush DVOA1423
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As I expected and predicted a week ago, the Cardinals' defense played well enough to earn a victory over Baker Mayfield and the Panthers. While wins are not easy to come by at the pro level, their task this week is exponentially more difficult.

Jalen Hurts is playing at an MVP level and leading an offense that is the best in yards per attempt (9.1), third in first down rate per attempt (39.8%), and tied for fifth in 20-yard pass completions. I do not see Arizona's defense being capable of disrupting the perfect blend of confidence and comfortability that Hurts is currently playing with.

The offensive line of the Eagles is currently the best in the NFL and deserves a lot of credit for their hot start. According to PFF, Philly's unit boasts a 75.1 pass block grade on true pass sets that do not include the use of play-action or a screen. Led by the top pass blocking offensive tackle in football (Lane Johnson) and PFF’s second-ranked center (Jason Kelce), this group has established themselves as the gold standard. The old saying in football is that defense travels; dominant offensive line play that protects the quarterback does as well.

This game is a complete mismatch in the trenches. The Eagles' multifaceted rushing attack is extremely difficult to defend as 66% of their runs have been of the zone concept variety. The Cardinals' run defense has struggled badly defending those types of runs, allowing 5.95 yards per carry against zone blocked rushing plays (per Jeff Ratcliffe of FTN).

Arizona is also last in the league in sacks, 24th in yards per pass attempt allowed and 28th in defensive DVOA versus the pass. If the Cardinals are going to be competitive, they’re going to need to have their best offensive game of the season.

The Eagles' defense will be exceedingly problematic in the Cardinals quest to have a true breakout game on offense. Only 37.8% of Kyler Murray’s pass attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown, which ranks 31st in the league (per Sharp Football). Philadelphia's D allows only 4.3 yards per pass play called by the opposing offense —  the best mark in football today by a considerable margin.

Situationally, it gets even worse for the Cards: Arizona is the 22nd-best offense on first down this season (DVOA), thus they could find themselves in several tough second and third down situations. The Eagles' defense is No. 1 in DVOA on second and long and No. 2 on 3rd/4th and long. When the Cardinals find themselves behind the sticks, it’s game over.

Bet Eagles -5.5 at FanDuel Right Now

Betting Picks

The Kingbury underdog narrative has some merit, but when you look a little deeper, you discover he actually has a losing record (5-6) against the spread in his home stadium when he is catching points.

The Cardinals have to play completely mistake-free football to even have a chance. They do not have the talent on the back-end to slow down A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and more importantly, they do not have the players up front to bother Hurts.

I have no doubt that some sharp bettors will grab the illusion of value with Arizona and the points in this game; it’s a mistake that will keep the spread under the key number of seven. No need to overthink this matchup, the Eagles will move to 5-0 in convincing fashion.

Pick: Eagles -5 | Bet to -6

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