Eagles vs. Packers Betting Predictions & Odds: Pick Rodgers Over Wentz?

Eagles vs. Packers Betting Predictions & Odds: Pick Rodgers Over Wentz? article feature image

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers

Eagles vs. Packers Betting Predictions & Odds

  • Eagles Spread: +3.5
  • Packers Spread: -3.5
  • Eagles Moneyline: +171
  • Packers Moneyline: -200
  • Total: 46.5
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX/NFL Network

Odds above as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

The Eagles, who opened the season with a 10-win total, are off to a rocky 1-2 start. They’re also 0-3 against the spread, failing to cover as favorites of only one point and as many as 10.

So what should we expect from Carson Wentz and Co., who go into Lambeau as 4-point underdogs?

Our analysts break down the most important angles of this primetime matchup, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds and our favorite picks.

Thursday Night Football Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Packers

The Packers could be without DL Montravius Adams (shoulder) and LB Oren Burks (chest), who have yet to practice this week. But most other players on Green Bay’s injury report are trending toward playing after getting in at least limited practices.

Meanwhile, the Eagles will be without DeSean Jackson (abdomen) again, along with CB Ronald Darby (hamstring) and DT Tim Jernigan (foot). Alshon Jeffery (calf) is expected to return. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Wednesday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Alshon Jeffrey

Biggest Mismatch

Packers Secondary vs. Philadelphia WRs

Wentz suffered through miserable wide receiver play in last week’s 27-24 loss to Detroit. The Eagles dropped seven passes, including rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside’s likely game-winner.

Needless to say, they need their injured receiving core to get healthy before Thursday’s quick turnaround.

The Packers secondary has played at an elite level all season and currently ranks third in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. And through three weeks, Jaire Alexander is Pro Football Focus’ top-rated cornerback.

Jeffery is expected to go, but the Eagles will be without veteran game-breaker Jackson. And while Wentz has totaled six touchdown passes and only two interceptions, he ranks only 13th in passing yardage.

Green Bay’s defense has been vulnerable on the ground, allowing big rushing totals to Minnesota (198 yards) and Denver (149) in consecutive weeks, but the Eagles’ rushing attack ranks only 20th in run offense DVOA. Mike Randle

Jaire Alexander
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jaire Alexander

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Packers -4
  • Projected Total: 47.5

The Packers have relied on their defense and turned Rodgers into more of a game manager to open their season 3-0. However, the Eagles are more of a pass funnel defense that the Packers would best exploit by letting Rodgers air it out a bit more. The Eagles, meanwhile, might want to attack a Packers defense that is a bit more vulnerable against the run game.

This might be a spot that’s better suited for an in-game wager once we see which team altered their game plan to take advantage of this specific matchup.

Despite 60% of the tickets being on the over as of writing (see live public betting data here), the total has dropped from 48 to 46. There could be some slight value on the over here. However, this could be another market to attack in-game if it appears both offensive game plans are tailored to attack their opponent’s weakness. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Randle: Packers -4.5

The Eagles bring a struggling ground game, a myriad of injuries to key players and a poor pass defense to Lambeau Field on a short week to face a healthy Rodgers.

In addition to their WR corps, the Eagles have been decimated by injuries on defense. They lost starting defensive tackle Malik Jackson (Lisfranc) for the season and will also be missing Darby and defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan (broken foot).

They also face the Packers’ eighth-best defense by DVOA and must attack Green Bay through its weaker run defense — the problem is that the Eagles are averaging only 3.6 yards per carry with leading rusher Miles Sanders struggling the most (3.1 YPC).

Green Bay faces a tough Philadelphia run defense (fourth-best in run defense DVOA) but should find success against the Eagles’ 22nd-ranked pass defense. Without Darby,  Davante Adams could have his 2019 breakout performance.

Look for the Packers’ secondary to limit Wentz and their offense to set a fast pace in a comfortable win.

John Ewing: First Half Under 23

Early in the season, it’s been profitable to bet first-half unders with high totals. This strategy works because offenses typically need a few games to hit their stride and it’s just easier for an under to hit in a high total game.

This system performs better when the full-game total has decreased by at least a half-point. The line decreasing is an indication of sharp action on the under. Since 2005, the under has gone 76-41-6 (65%) in this spot.

This first-half total is 23 points, making it a match for this system. The full-game total has also fallen from 48 to 46.

How would you rate this article?