Falcons vs. Packers Betting Odds & Pick: Fade Aaron Rodgers On Monday Night Football
Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan
- The winless Atlanta Falcons hop on a plane to Green Bay to take on the undefeated Packers on Monday Night Football.
- Our NFL betting expert Stuckey thinks the market is too high on the Packers -- even at home in primetime.
- Check out Stuckey's full analysis of the odds and matchup below, complete with his pick on the spread.
Falcons vs. Packers Odds
The 3-0 Green Bay Packers will look to keep it rolling on Monday Night Football against the 0-3 Atlanta Falcons.
The Packers have set records during their perfect start, becoming the first team in NFL history to eclipse the 35-point mark in their first three games without turning the ball over. And Aaron Rodgers has seemingly turned back the clock over the first few weeks.
That said, I’m a little hesitant than most on all of this Packers love. This is essentially the same team as the 2019 version that benefited from matchups, this time against the rookie-filled secondaries of Minnesota and Detroit over the first two weeks. Neither team looks like it will do much this year.
I did bump Green Bay a bit after a more impressive win against New Orleans in a coin-flip game, but I still think the market is too high on the Pack.
In contrast, the Falcons are off to an 0-3 start but easily could be 2-1 after blowing improbable double-digit leads in back-to-back weeks against the Bears and Cowboys. Also, it’s worth noting they played the Seahawks pretty evenly in a season opener in which both teams averaged 6.6 yards per play — that game simply flipped on fourth down and turnover luck.
Atlanta isn’t as bad as its record indicates. It may continue to blow big leads as a result of a very poor defense (particularly against the pass) and coaching, but it doesn’t need to win this game to cover a touchdown spread. There isn’t any reason the Falcons can’t move the ball at will against a Packers defense that has allowed an NFL-worst 6.9 yards per play so far this season.
The Packers will also have to make do without their leading tackler (Christian Kirksey) and potentially their top corner in Jaire Alexander. Alexander, who has been elite so far this season and is clearly the best player on the Packers defense, is listed as questionable after not practicing on Saturday.
Injuries are a huge storyline in this game.
Both teams have injury reports the length of CVS receipts. The most important ones are at wide receiver. Allen Lazard will not suit up for Green Bay, while Devante Adams is listed as questionable. And for Atlanta, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are both listed as questionable while it appears Russell Gage will give it a go.
I’m assuming Adams, Jones and Ridley will all try to play, but it’s worth monitoring each. If Adams and Lazard both can’t go, Rodgers may find it tougher to pick on a vulnerable and undermanned Atlanta secondary as Marquez Valdes-Scantling has not looked great this season.
Although — despite all of the injuries on the back end — it’s not like the Atlanta secondary can get any worse. Replacing rookie A.J. Terrell and his backup Darqueze Dennard with Kendall Sheffield may provide a spark as it will be Sheffield’s first action of 2020. And maybe the other corner on the outside, Isaiah Oliver, will find a way to finally not drop an interception this season.
Green Bay also has a number of starters listed as questionable on the defensive side.
This is just a perception difference between these teams after two complete opposite starts, which is what drove this line to 7, but Green Bay isn’t as good as it has looked and Atlanta isn’t as bad as its 0-3 record.
The cloudy injury situation does make this game a little tougher to handicap, but I still feel comfortable backing the Falcons at anything over the key number of 7. I personally make this line a tad under 6 with my current injury assumptions, so I jumped at the opportunity to take a desperate Atlanta team at +7.5.
The line is now at -6.5 at some books as of late Sunday night. At that price, it’s a pure stay away for me. But if you can get +7 or better, I would take a shot with the Falcons.
If you can’t, maybe wait to get a live price on Atlanta at better than a touchdown — there certainly should be an opportunity to trade in the live markets in a game that should have no shortage of points between two teams that are a combined 6-0 to the over on the season.
PICK: Falcons +7 or better