Commanders vs Giants Odds and Best Bets for Sunday Night Football
Brandon Anderson: We just got this game two weeks ago, and my cap is the same: I love the under.
Were we lucky to cash our under 40.5 a couple weeks ago in a 20-20 tie? Yeah, sure, only a tie saved us there and yes we are contractually obligated to roll over our bet and go back to the well here. But the truth is that that game played out exactly as expected and was under easy until that late Washington drive to tie it up.
Both of these defenses rank top six pressuring the quarterback, and both of them are bottom six in pass protection. That sets up a game where neither team can pass much and puts this on the run, and it likely means a faster script too. Washington’s defense ranks 5th in DVOA over the past six weeks, but neither offense is playing particularly well.
Washington games have gone under 40.5 in nine of their last 11, and the trends love the under. From Week 14 forward, division game unders in outdoor weather are 91-56-4 (62%). They’re also 106-79-1 (57%) with a home division favorite of under seven in that spot. This is effectively a playoff game for both teams, so I expect it to be low-scoring and close. And if the line drops, non-Monday primetime unders with a total from 36 to 40 are 40-20 (67%). I’ll grab the under now before it has the chance to drop.
If we love the under, we should feel good about a division underdog catching above a field goal. Daniel Jones is 15-5 ATS (75%) as a road underdog, and he’s 9-4 ATS (69%) as a division dog. I lean Giants with the line this high, and I don’t mind playing with the under as a +264 SGP if you like New York.
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Ricky Henne: Raise your hand if you predicted that the Week 15 tilt between the Giants and Commanders would be the biggest matchup of the NFL season thus far.
Now raise your hand if you predicted you would be backing Daniel Jones in this all-important game.
There shouldn’t be a single hand still in the air. Mine certainly isn’t.
Alas, here we are with the Giants getting a generous 4.5 points in a game that feels like a coin-flip. These teams played to a 20-20 tie just two weeks ago, and most trends point to the G-Men covering at bare minimum Sunday night.
Jones has been money in the bank in situations like he finds himself in this week. As the great Chris Raybon points out, Jones is 14-5 against the spread (ATS) all-time as a road underdog, and 11-1 when getting less than eight points. He’s also had success ATS against the NFC East, going 11-6 over his career, including 9-4 as an underdog.
The Giants have also been quite profitable ATS this year, especially when getting points. They’re 9-4 overall and 7-2 as underdogs. Washington’s wins have all been nail biters, with five of the seven victories finishing as one-score affairs.
All things considered, the 4.5 points the Giants are getting feels generous — especially considering how these teams fared against each other only a couple weeks back. I’m hardly alone as 72% of bets and 83% of the money are on Big Blue to cover. Some books are even giving New York five points. If that’s available, gobble it up ASAP.
Simon Hunter: Why no love for the Commanders?
Sure their ownership is a dumpster fire and the Giants will undoubtedly have more fans at the game, but on the field, these teams couldn’t be further apart.
The public thinks to themselves, “Didn’t we see these teams play to a tie just two weeks ago?” They would have been happy to take the Giants at +3.5. The sportbooks are giving them +4.5, and they’re all over it.
As of Saturday on the Action Network app, 80% of the money and tickets are on New York. Yet, we’ve seen some books move this number to +5. That is because this game should be closer to six than to three.
Following that aforementioned tie, Washington went into its bye and got to prepare for two weeks for this game. The Giants, on the other hand, got smoked at home by the Eagles and now need to head down to DC for this game. It’s just a bad spot for the Giants.
Washington couldn’t have asked for a better match up. In a game that feels like the winner gets a playoff berth, give me the home favorite. I would take this up to five.