Giants vs Eagles Spread, Predictions: Favorite Picks, Player Props, More
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Hurts.
Giants vs Eagles Odds
|Moneyline||+300 / -380|
|Time||Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET|
|Odds via bet365.|
For the third time this season, we’re staring down the prospect of making Giants vs. Eagles picks.
Check out how some of our analysts are betting this game.
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Giants vs. Eagles Picks
Case for the Giants
Despite losing the first two matchups, New York covered against Philadelphia in Week 18 with its third-string QB in the game. Two of our writers see a similar against-the-spread (ATS) result this time around.
This line is on the move, going from Giants +7.5 to +8 at most sportsbooks on Saturday morning. Use our NFL live odds page to get the latest spreads.
John LanFranca: How the games played out between these NFC East rivals in the regular season is irrelevant heading into Saturday night. Why? Well for one, the Giants’ best cornerback (Adoree Jackson) and star interior defender (Leonard Williams) are available for this one – neither played in those regular season games.
The Giants have greatly altered their philosophy defensively over the past few weeks. Blitzing and playing man is a recipe for disaster against the Eagles – the Giants did both at a league-high rate from Weeks 1-14.
However, since Week 15, Wink Martindale’s defense has only played man on 20% of snaps. Last week, the Giants blitzed on only 15% of plays against Kirk Cousins, yet still generated a pressure rate of 43.6%. New York’s defensive line is peaking at the right time.
The only Eagles weakness we have seen this season is shaky run defense. The Giants, who are rolling on the ground right now, will undoubtedly look to shorten the game with sustained drives that keep the chains moving.
If the Giants defense plays the two-high shell we saw a week ago, opting to blitz less, I expect the Eagles to counter with a heavy dose of the running games themselves. Possessions will be at a premium and getting over a touchdown worth of points in that type of game feels like tremendous value.
I’d bet the Giants down to +7.
Ricky Henne: If you told me a month ago I’d back Big Blue to cover in a spot like this, I’d have likely laughed in your face.
But there’s nothing funny about the Giants now. They’re loose, playing with house money and on a roll. Even more important is that history is on their side as teams in their exact position cover more often than not.
There’s no doubt the Eagles are the superior team in nearly every way. They pass the eye test 10 out of 10 times compared to New York. However, once again because it can’t be stressed enough, the Giants are covering the spread at a higher clip this year than any team dating back to 2002.
By now it shouldn’t come as a shock to you that I’m backing the Giants to cover. It may end up a case of good process, bad result – but I can always live with that.
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Simon Hunter disagrees. On “The Favorites” podcast with Chad Millman, Hunter laid out why he’s backing the Eagles to cover.
Look, I understand it — there are a number of trends that support fading number one seeds in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
I, however, will be riding a different trend this week: The Eagles are undefeated with both Jordan Davis and Jalen Hurts active this season.
Simply put, I just think the Eagles are the better team. If Hurts played the last few games of the season and the Eagles won out, I believe this line may have opened with the Eagles being favored by 10. The line, however, opened at 8.5 depending on your book. The public continues to hammer the Giants, though.
I am hoping this line comes down to seven, though I doubt it gets there since it’s moving the other way. The Eagles -7.5 are my favorite bet of the week.
Giants vs. Eagles Player Props
Sean Koerner: Goedert cleared this number when these teams met in Week 18 with a 6/46/0 receiving line. But while the Giants struggle against TEs (31st in DVOA), there are some underlying factors that may prevent Goedert from catching at least five passes.
In Weeks 1-17, Goedert stayed in to pass block eight times. In Week 18, he stayed in to pass block six times. The huge increase in pass blocks was likely due to the fact the Giants blitz at the highest rate in the league and Jalen Hurts needed added protection.
While Goedert’s target rate has been identical whether opposing defenses blitz or not, his catch rate dips from 83% when teams don’t blitz to 76% when teams blitz.
The Giants also use man coverage at the highest rate in the league. Goedert’s target % (the % of targets to snaps) drops from 58.2% vs. zone to 23.9 vs. man. That -34.3% drop is the biggest decrease against man of all full-time pass-catchers on the Eagles.
So while it’s true the Giants struggle to defend TEs, the overall volume might not be there for Goedert to clear 4.5 receptions.
I’m projecting Goedert closer to 4.1 in this spot. There is a chance he will be able to do a ton of damage on the catches he makes, so I think the market to attack would be his receptions and I would bet this down to -130.
Chris Raybon: Hurts was reportedly instructed to avoid unnecessary contact in Week 18 against the Giants, and it seems to have created some uncertainty in the market in regard to his rushing volume heading into this week.
Though he still finished with nine rushing attempts, four of those were kneel-downs (which obviously still count for this prop) and only one was a designed run. To put that into perspective, Hurts came into that game averaging 7.4 designed runs per game that aren’t kneel downs.
A month removed from his shoulder injury and with a trip to the NFC Title Game on the line, Hurts should be expected to operate with no restrictions. While Hurts finished the regular seasons second in kneel downs with 20 and needed four of them to get over this line in Week 18, he is a strong bet to clear this number without the aid of a single kneel-down.
Even with his one designed run in Week 18 factored in, Hurts still averages 6.9 designed rushes to go along with 2.9 scrambles per game. That adds up to 9.8 non-kneel-down carries per game, which put the odds squarely in Hurts’ favor to post at least nine rushing attempts for the 12th time in 16 games.
One of the four games Hurts failed to clear this prop was against the Giants in Week 14 when he finished with seven carries, but I’m viewing that more so as bad luck than anything likely to repeat. The Giants were missing key defenders and allowed two long touchdown passes early, which robbed the Eagles of additional play volume on each drive, and the Eagles averaged only 4.2 plays per drive over their final 10 drives.
The Giants have since gotten healthy on defense and shifted to a more conservative, zone-heavy scheme, so we shouldn’t see as many explosive plays. The Eagles also took their foot off the gas late in that contest, with Hurts being pulled for the final two drives (and missing out on a kneel-down that instead went to Gardner Minshew).
Speaking of which, even though I don’t think Hurts will need them to go over, kneel-downs could very well be in order with the Eagles listed as 7.5-point favorites at home. I’d lean Giants as far as the side goes, but the Eagles’ win probability still dictates that Hurts is a good bet for 1-3 kneel downs.
After factoring all of that in, I’m projecting 10.9 carries for Hurts, so I show value not just at 8.5, but also at 9.5.
Sam Farley: Dallas Goedert has consistently been one of the Eagles’ best performers all year long. Not only that but he’s been somebody Jalen Hurts has relied upon, being targeted 69 times in 12 appearances and hauling in 55 of those attempts.
He’s not been incredibly prolific but in a crunch game like this I’d expect Hurts to lean on guys he can trust, especially with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith getting the bulk of the attention from the Giants defense.
We saw last week that when the defense were occupied by a top WR in Justin Jefferson it left it open for TJ Hockenson to lead the team in receptions (10 from 11 targets). I’d expect to see similar happen and for Goedert to have a big game and finding the endzone.
Tony Sartori: In one of the most lop-sided player matchups of the weekend, Miles Sanders should have a field day against the Giants’ run defense. This season, the Eagles’ offense boasts the number one Rush DVOA in the league while the Giants’ defense possesses the worst Rush DVOA.
While a major part of Philadelphia’s aforementioned number one ranking is in large part due to quarterback Jalen Hurts’ dual-threat ability, Sanders has really turned things up over the second half of the season. Over the last seven weeks, he is averaging 73.1 rushing yards per game and just under a touchdown-per-game over that stretch.
He faced the Giants twice over that span, averaging 88.5 rushing yards and one touchdown-per-game between those two contests. In a game where Philadelphia is favored by 7.5, it is likely that they will be up late in the contest and will continue to pound the rock to kill the clock, opening the door to a garbage touchdown opportunity for Sanders if he does not get one before then.