Seahawks vs Giants Odds & Picks | NFL Week 8
Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Kenneth Walker III (left) and Geno Smith.
- The Giants (6-1) are road underdogs today against the Seahawks.
- Seattle's offense has thrived this season with Geno Smith at QB.
- John LanFranca breaks down the game and lays out his pick below.
Seahawks vs Giants Odds
Geno Smith and Daniel Jones headline the marquee game of the week. Writing that sentence was rather unlikely just two months ago.
Both teams boast top seven DVOA offenses that feature balanced, efficient attacks led by explosive running backs and accurate quarterbacks. The debate about whether the Seahawks and Giants are truly NFC contenders will rage on, but this game will undoubtedly give us strong data points on if these defenses are playoff caliber.
I am skeptical either defense has the personnel to hold up to the strengths of the opposing offense on Sunday afternoon.
Giants vs. Seahawks Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Giants and Seahawks match up statistically:
Giants vs. Seahawks DVOA Breakdown
These quarterbacks have been two of the most accurate in football this season. Daniel Jones ranks third in the NFL in completion percentage versus expected completion percentage, while Geno Smith ranks first. It has taken the market a while to catch up to this fact, and I still don’t believe the totals featuring these quarterbacks have caught up to what is playing out on the field.
The Giants offense has made substantial strides over the past three weeks and leads the NFL in red zone possessions with 14 since Week 5. In the past month, only their road trip to Baltimore failed to result in one of the best five offensive performances of the week, according to DVOA on a play-by-play basis. The Giants have just one turnover over the past three games and are leaning heavily on a rushing attack the Seahawks will have trouble stopping.
Seattle is 23rd in the league in defending first down rushing plays.
Giants +3 | Seahawks -3
When the Seahawks faced off with the Falcons in Week 3, they were able to limit Marcus Mariota on designed runs, but it was at the expense of their overall performance as Cordarrelle Patterson gashed them for 8.3 yards per carry. In Week 5, both Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara ran through this defense with ease and tallied a combined 235 rushing yards.
In Week 6, Seattle was able to limit the Cardinals ground attack, but Kyler Murray rushed for 100 yards on 10 carries. Seattle has given up 508 yards on the ground via runs deemed as explosive (10+ yards). Taking on Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones is a very poor matchup for this defense.
Speaking of explosive runs, Kenneth Walker III is starting to make them a trend. Walker leads the NFL in broken tackles since taking over as the Seahawks starter and now faces a defense ranked 31st in explosive run yardage allowed. The Giants rank 30th overall in stopping the run, according to DVOA, and allow a league high 7.4 yards per play on first down. The Seahawks won't find themselves in many difficult 3rd down situations.
The Giants will look to blitz Geno Smith as they boast the highest blitz rate in the league at 42.8%. However, they play a substantial amount of man coverage behind their blitzes.
No team plays man coverage at a higher rate and only one quarterback has a better mark than Smith's 10.4 yards per attempt against man coverage. Even if the Giants are able to pressure Smith, he has the league’s third-best passer rating under pressure. It’s a recipe for disaster for the Giants defense and I expect them to get exposed on early downs and in obvious passing situations.
You will rarely see a total this low featuring offenses playing this well combined with defenses playing this poorly. Seattle games have gone over the total by an average of 21.25 points ([) in four of the past five weeks. Add in their 19-9 victory over Arizona in Week 6, and the market is still short an average of 12.5 points per game in games involving the Seahawks since Week 2. Neither defense can limit what the other offense does best — this total is far too low.
Quickslip: Over 44.5 | Bet to 46.5