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The Green Bay Packers (4-2) and Detroit Lions (3-2) will face off in NFL Week 7. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. EDT from Ford Field in Detroit, Mich. The game will be broadcast live on FOX.
The Lions are favored by -3 with the over/under set at 53.5 total points. Lions is a -173 moneyline favorite to win outright, while the Packers are a +143 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Packers vs. Lions predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October, 25.
My Packers vs Lions Prediction
- Packers vs Lions pick: Over 53.5
My Packers vs Lions best bet is on the over, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Packers vs Lions Odds
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -122 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -178 |
- Packers vs Lions Moneyline: Packers +150, Lions -178
- Packers vs Lions Total: 53.5Â
- Packers vs Lions Spread: Packers +3 (+100), Lions -3 (-122)
Packers vs Lions NFL Week 7 Preview
The Packers are passing the ball at the fourth-highest rate over expectation this season and I believe this trend is here to stay despite the potential return of running back Josh Jacobs.
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has historically been aggressive when playing Detroit, which has been one of the main reasons why each of Jordan Love’s three starts at Ford Field has seen the total number of points exceed the oddsmakers’ total.
Love is playing an ultra-aggressive brand of football right now to match the skill set of his top two targets: Matthew Golden and Christian Watson.
Love has completed a league-high 14 passes of 30 or more yards through six weeks. The Detroit defense will have its hands full in trying to limit Green Bay's downfield passing attack.
The Lions have allowed 14 touchdown passes and have just three interceptions while allowing a success rate of 57% through the air, which ranks 31st in the NFL.
The Lions’ 2.7 points per drive surrendered makes them one of the worst three defenses in the NFL. When their pass rush fails to generate pressure, their secondary is highly susceptible to breakdowns. Detroit's secondary does not have the personnel to play man coverage successfully, meaning it cannot challenge opposing teams to look past the quarterback's first read.
Opposing offenses are throwing to their first read on 70% of all attempts against Detroit, which is the fifth-highest rate in the league.
The Packers defense is starting to take shape and play significantly better under defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. However, I’m not convinced this is a good matchup for their continued success.
The Lions use a predominantly zone-heavy rushing scheme — with one of the league’s most explosive runners in Jahmyr Gibbs — and the Packers have been gashed on the ground when trying to defend against zone rushing concepts this season.
The Packers have allowed 5.2 yards per rush when defending zone concepts. The offensive success rate on those rushes is a staggering 65% — by far the worst mark for any defense in the league.
Green Bay’s defense likes to disguise cover on the back end by shifting immediately upon the snap of the ball, but that is a much harder thing to do when you are putting an emphasis on gap responsibility in trying to defend the run.
In the five games involving the Lions, the winning team has averaged 36 points per game. The fewest amount of total points scored for one of their games this season is 55. That is a remarkable statistic to consider when you take into account that Detroit has generated just one touchdown in the first quarter.
Undoubtedly, it puts an emphasis on its opening game script during its bye week and it is reasonable to expect them to start games faster than it has to begin this year.
Packers vs Lions Prediction, Betting Analysis
During the Dan Campbell and Jared Goff era, we have repeatedly seen the Lions offense show up when they have extra time to prepare. Long term, the Packers defense may be an extremely formidable unit, but on the road in Detroit, limiting the Lions to under 30 points may be too much to ask.
During Jordan Love’s tenure in Green Bay, 83% of all games played inside a climate-controlled environment have gone over the total.
Simply put, we are being given a discount in this spot due to the lower scoring output that disappointed many watching a national television broadcast last Sunday night between the Cowboys and Packers.
I’d play this total up to 54.5, giving us the win if it lands on the key number of 55.
Pick: Over 53.5
