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Every week in the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup bettors can exploit with the spread, total or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market for NFL Week 7 on Sunday, October 25.
Each week, I go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
In 2025, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4% win rate) with +44.1 units in profit for a 11% ROI. Although there was some regression in 2026, we still had decent results at 101-265 (27.5% win rate) with +36.4 units in profit for 9.9% ROI.
If you plan to tail all these bets, please use proper bankroll management. In each of the last two seasons, I was profitable in 13 of 18 weeks (26 of 36 overall) but there’s still an average of five weeks of the season where it wasn’t great.
For players listed in “VERDICT,” those are one-unit bets for each pick. But if a player is listed in “VERDICT” as a “sprinkle," then it is a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long-shot odds.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of Week 7.
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NFL Week 7 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Giants vs Texans |
| 49ers vs Falcons |
| Bengals vs Ravens |
| Buccaneers vs Panthers |
| Dolphins vs Jets |
| Browns vs Titans |
| Colts vs Vikings |
| Broncos vs Cardinals |
| Packers vs Lions |
| Rams vs Raiders |
Giants vs. Texans
Isaiah Likely was my favorite anytime touchdown bet for Week 6, and we’re going right back to him in Week 7. I know he’ll be a popular pick after already scoring five TDs this year, but the price is why we keep going back to him.
As strong as the Texans defense has been this year, it has been a bit leaky against the pass, dropping to 19th in defensive DVOA against the pass after finishing second last season.
What bettors need to realize is we’re not getting this price because of the tougher defensive matchup, but rather the quarterback throwing the ball: the much-maligned J.J. McCarthy.
McCarthy looked good for a quarter last week with two passing TDs and some fun scrambles, but we did see the bad side of his game with an interception on his first series.
I’m willing to overlook it for this game because of the price and the fact that Likely leads the Giants in red-zone targets and saw two end-zone targets with McCarthy.
With one more week of practice now with the Texans, this is the time where I’m ready to fire on WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
The Giants are a prime matchup for opposing WRs. They’ve given up seven TDs to wide receivers this year, with one of them actually being scored by Harrison in Week 4 when he was a member of the Cardinals.
Harrison joined the Texans last week to play in London against the Jaguars, and even though he only ran nine routes, he was targeted on four of them and saw a red-zone target.
I expect his snap rate and route participation to see a huge bump in Week 7 now that he’s a bit more familiar with the playbook.
The Texans gave up a second-round pick for Harrison, so I doubt they made the move to have him be a periphery receiver. He was a touchdown machine in college with C.J. Stroud, so at this price, I’m willing to find out if they still have the same chemistry.
VERDICT: Marvin Harrison Jr. +280 | Isaiah Likely +270
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49ers vs. Falcons
The 49ers' receiver room continues to be decimated with WR Mike Evans sidelined with an Achilles injury he suffered in Week 6.
The injuries haven’t really slowed the 49ers down at all, and the one receiver that was jumping off the screen was WR Jordan Watkins (+550). He only saw one target last week after Evans went down. Now, the Niners are looking at Brandin Cooks to be their top option on the outside, but it was Watkins who got the most snaps in Week 6.
The Niners started Watkins on the other side of Evans, and while the former only saw one target, he’s on the field way too much to have a +500 price.
If you want to go with WR Jacob Cowing at +700, I’d be down for that too — but even in Evans' absence, he failed to play more than 15 snaps.
It’s kind of baffling that Drake London has yet to score a TD for the Falcons this season. He’s doing so much heavy lifting for Atlanta’s passing offense and has a 25% target share through six weeks, which ranks 12th amongst all NFL pass-catchers.
The frustrating part is that every player who has 25% target share or more has scored at least two touchdowns already this season, but I think London finally gets it done today.
The Falcons targeted London twice in the end zone in Week 6, and while the TDs ultimately went to Jahan Dotson and Kyle Pitts, London was still the first read on 37% of total targets.
London has seen 10+ targets in each of the games with Michael Penix Jr. at QB, and with this game being indoors, we don’t have to worry about the weather.
It’s chalky, but it’s the best option on the Falcons with my price closer to +110 for London to score a TD.
VERDICT: Jordan Watkins +500 | Drake London +140
- Find First Touchdown picks for every Week 7 game in our expert's TD Model!
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Bengals vs. Ravens
This is a matchup I had circled since the start of the season because I think Bengals WR Tee Higgins could have a massive game.
Higgins only has one TD this season, but he’s still getting a massive workload while running more routes and seeing a higher targets per route run than WR1 Ja’Marr Chase.
The Ravens' pass defense can be thrown on and they play zone at a top-10 rate and two-high safety at a top-five rate, which I think will play well for Higgins since he has a higher target rate when seeing those defenses.
I expect the Ravens to shade their coverages to Chase whenever possible, which will leave Higgins to exploit 1-on-1 matchups.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is out once again, which means Tyler Huntley gets another start at quarterback.
While Huntley hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire, I trust him to target Mark Andrews (+220).
He’s burned me over the last two weeks, but it’s only a matter of time before he breaks out and the Bengals are a prime matchup.
The Bengals have yet to allow a touchdown to a TE this year, but they’re allowing a ton of targets to the position (bottom-five) and Andrews leads the Ravens in end-zone targets this season. And for what it’s worth, of the 14 passing TDs Huntley has had in his career, 10 of those have gone to a TE.
You could go long shot with TE Matt Hibner or TE Josh Cuevas, but I’ll take one more shot with Andrews.
VERDICT: Tee Higgins +160 | Mark Andrews +240
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Buccaneers vs. Panthers
I’m a bit bullish on QB Bryce Young throwing an interception in this game, so I’m not in love with a lot of Panthers TD props. But I am intrigued by a rushing TD for Young at +700.
Young has only scored one rushing TD this season, but he has sneaky upside in the red zone and has the ability to beat the edge to the pylon.
I think this is a game where he’ll need to scramble a bit more because the Buccaneers have blitzed the quarterback at a top-five rate and Young’s scramble rate saw a direct increase when being blitzed.
A lot of this TD bet is price because he only has one rushing TD this season, but the Panthers have reached the red zone at nearly twice the rate compared to last year. So, more trips near the end zone should tilt the odds in our favor, as I had this priced closer to +550.
This will likely be the chalkiest pick of the week from me, but I’m going right back to RB Bucky Irving at +140.
The Panthers' run defense has not improved at all from last year as they've given up eight rushing TDs on the season.
With Irving, we know we’re getting the RB1 who leads the team in red-zone carries, but he is also tied for the team lead in red-zone targets.
With QB Baker Mayfield back, I expect the Bucs to lean heavily on the run and try to control the clock so they don’t get burnt by the Panthers' electric passing offense.
VERDICT: Bucky Irving +140 | Bryce Young +700
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Dolphins vs. Jets
The Dolphins obviously love De'Von Achane, but they may have stumbled into another building block at running back in Ollie Gordon.
The second-year back has scored in three straight games and he is averaging close to five red-zone carries per game, while the rest of the running backs (and QB Malik Willis) have combined for only 12 red-zone carries all season.
It’s also worth noting that Gordon scored those touchdowns against three teams that rank inside the top-10 in defensive DVOA against the run.
I don’t expect Gordon’s runs to be efficient, but if/when the Dolphins get near the goal line, they will give Ollie his chances to punch it in against the Jets defense.
After watching rookie WR Omar Cooper Jr. light it up last week against the Patriots, I think it’s time we take their other rookie in TE Kenyon Sadiq.
Sadiq is slowly getting back into the TE rotation after suffering a concussion in Week 4, and despite only running 20 routes in the last two games, he still leads the team in targets per route run in those outings.
There’s a lot of competition for pass-catchers on the Jets side these days (Adonai Mitchell is also returning in this game), but the Dolphins have allowed a TD to a TE in three of five games (four TDs total).
If you want to take a swing on TE Mason Taylor at +425 instead, I don't mind that either, but I’ll swing for Sadiq in Week 7.
VERDICT: Ollie Gordon +200 | Kenyon Sadiq +425
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Browns vs. Titans
I’ve bet on Browns QB Deshaun Watson to score a TD in three of the last four games and have fallen short each time.
It’s maddening because all the data points to his rushing upside in this offense. He’s averaging just under seven rushing attempts per game and six rushing attempts inside the red zone, but no touchdowns so far.
The positive news is he’s facing a Titans squad that ranks 24th in defensive DVOA against the run and allowed a rushing TD to QB C.J. Stroud in Week 5.
Watson also leads the NFL in total scrambles. This is a bit of a “he’s due” pick, but there’s at least data to support the theory.
Another Titans game, another spot where all the value for TDs is on the Titans side.
My TD Show brethren Grant Neiffer loves WR Carnell Tate in this spot, and frankly, I can’t really disagree with him.
Tate is running the most routes of any Titans WR. He leads the team in targets per route run and has seen at least one end-zone target in each of the last three games with his first score coming in Week 6.
If we get vultured by someone like Elic Ayomanor or Wan’Dale Robinson, so be it — but we’re getting the WR1 in this offense at +300 or better.
Even in a game with a low total and a borderline inept offense, we have to take this 99 times out of 100.
VERDICT: Deshaun Watson +450 | Carnell Tate +320
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Colts vs. Vikings
I have one of these TD bets every week where I look at my projections and then look at the sportsbook’s odds and incredulously yell something like, “What are we doing here?”
Well, I’ve done that now three times this season with Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, and he’s scored each time.
I understand we’re looking at a lower game total and QB Kyler Murray doesn’t necessarily inspire the most confidence, but Jefferson is a top-five WR in the NFL.
In his first game back from injury against the Saints, he scored a highlight TD in the back of the end zone while running the most routes and leading the team in target share.
Playing at home against a middle of the pack defense that is also missing their top cornerback in Sauce Gardner, this one feels like a no-brainer if they’re giving us +180.
I initially wanted TE Tyler Warren for this matchup, but his groin injury is keeping him on the sidelines. So, I think we just go with WR Keenan Allen at +400.
Allen has only scored one touchdown this year, but in two games back after returning from injury, he’s been a target machine with 19 targets and leads the team in targets per route run.
The Vikings' pass defense isn’t an easy nut to crack because of how much they blitz, but they do rank top-five in the frequency in which they deploy zone defense and two-high safety, which sets up well for Allen, who leads the team in total targets against those coverages.
If you want to go with a long shot, WR Laquon Treadwell is the guy at +700 because he could potentially score an easy touchdown if the Vikings blitz and have a momentary lapse and Treadwell goes for a long bomb.
VERDICT: Justin Jefferson +180 | Keenan Allen +400
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Broncos vs. Cardinals
Give the Broncos credit for their pass defense not completely folding after the injury to CB Patrick Surtain II, with only one passing TD allowed over the last two games.
Some of that could be attributed to the ineptitude of Justin Herbert and Sam Darnold, but this might be a tougher offense to slow down this week in the Cardinals.
Arizona has shown that regardless of opponent, it’s going to throw A LOT and test out opposing secondaries. I usually like to take TE Trey McBride in this spot, but WR Michael Wilson is a bit overlooked at +250.
Wilson leads the team with six end-zone targets and only trails McBride in targets per route run by a smidge.
In the first game officially without Marvin Harrison Jr., Wilson was the clear WR1 in this offense with two end-zone targets while running a route on 85% of dropbacks.
The touchdowns are coming for Wilson, I’ll take my chances at +250.
Out of any team in the NFL, I think picking TDs for the Broncos tends to be the hardest because they love to gimmick it up and let random guys score.
You take a Broncos favorite like Courtland Sutton, and then a long-shot TE scores. You bet on a long-shot like TE Nate Adkins because you get a great price, and then JK Dobbins scores three touchdowns.
I think we need to go somewhere in the middle, and that's RB2 RJ Harvey at +280.
Harvey scored his first TD of the year in Week 6 and has been the main pass-catching back in this offense by a good margin, running around 12 routes per game. He has a 10-target game already this season and is technically second on the Broncos with four red-zone targets.
After scoring 12 TDs last year (five via the pass), I’ll take my chances that the Broncos keep using Harvey in different ways near the goal line.
VERDICT: Michael Wilson +270 | RJ Harvey +280
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Packers vs. Lions
Sometimes, there are obvious TD bets that you don’t even really need to do research on to like the matchup and odds — and sometimes, it feels like pulling teeth to find an edge in a market that is seeing less and less edges every week.
Thankfully, this game is the former — I feel like we’re getting a bit of a gift with Jameson Williams at +220.
Williams finally had his breakout game before the Week 6 bye with two touchdowns against the Cardinals, and now the Lions return home where their offense typically gets a boost.
Scoring TDs hasn’t really been a problem for the Lions, but much like the Rams, finding the value can be tricky.
The only other Lion I’d consider is TE Sam LaPorta since its National Tight Ends Day, but I’ll stick with the WR2 on a top-five offense when it’s +200 or better.
I’m kind of shocked that WR Matthew Golden is still hovering around +165 to score a TD.
Golden has scored a touchdown in three of five games, but the target rate and the route participation are what sets him apart. He ranks third in the NFL in red-zone targets (11), while also seeing seven end-zone targets, which ranks second only behind his teammate Christian Watson.
The main reason why I’m eying Golden instead of Watson is Golden's targets per route run and route participation is just smidge higher than Watson’s, but I think both are live to score on a Lions defense that has allowed 14 passing touchdowns and ranks 29th in defensive DVOA against the pass.
I had this closer to +130. So, I’ll take the value here, as it remains to be seen how this Packers offense will look now that RB Josh Jacobs is back in the fold.
VERDICT: Jameson Williams +220 | Matthew Golden +165
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Rams vs. Raiders
Last week for the Raiders, I highlighted how much QB Kirk Cousins is targeting his tight ends, and while we all love Brock Bowers, TE2 Michael Mayer deserves more attention for how much he’s used in this offense.
Mayer has essentially become the TE1 in this offense because the Raiders have smartly used Bowers far more in the slot and out wide to take advantage of his physical nature, while the middle of the field has become Mayer’s domain.
Mayer saw nine targets last week and has 30 targets in just the last three games, even with Bowers on the field.
I expect the Rams to shift their entire defensive coverage into trying to stop Bowers. Mayer could see some extra looks near the goal line as a result, and at +350, that’s all we ask.
The Rams offense has never been an issue. They can move the ball on any defense in the NFL.
Picking TD scorers hasn’t been the easiest because they tend to spam WR Puka Nacua with targets while spreading the ball around to different tight ends.
The one TE I was waiting to start to emerge is TE Colby Parkinson (+300), and with WR Davante Adams out for the foreseeable future, he could see even more usage in this matchup.
The Raiders rank bottom-three in catches and TDs (6) allowed to TEs, and with the way the Rams defense has been playing, this could ultimately turn into a shootout and give us more chances to cash in on Rams TD scorers.
VERDICT: Michael Mayer +370 | Colby Parkinson +300
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