The Houston Texans (2-5) and Los Angeles Chargers (0-7) will face off today in NFL Week 9 action. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Texans are favored by -6 on the spread, with the over/under set at 40.5 total points. The Texans are -238 favorites on the moneyline while the Chargers are +195 underdogs.
Let's get into my Texans vs Chargers predictions for Sunday, November 8.
Texans vs Chargers Prediction
- Texans vs Chargers pick: Chargers +6
My Texans vs Chargers best bet is on Los Angeles to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at DraftKings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Texans vs Chargers Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -108 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -238 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -112 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
- Texans vs Chargers Spread: Texans -6, Chargers +6
- Texans vs Chargers Total: 40.5
- Texans vs Chargers Moneyline: Texans -238, Chargers +195
Texans vs Chargers NFL Week 9 Preview
Houston Texans Betting Preview: Too Much Respect
The Texans should not be six-point favorites on the road, even against a wildly disappointing Chargers team that is winless entering Week 9.
The Chargers offense may be the most disappointing unit in football given their expectations heading into this season, but the Texans defense is not far behind.
Houston ranks 19th in expected points added (EPA) per dropback and it simply cannot limit explosive plays through the air. The Texans have allowed 29 completions of 20 or more yards and 51 completions of 15 or more yards — both rank in the bottom three out of all defensive units.
Just two weeks ago, J.J. McCarthy shredded Texans secondary. McCarthy attempted 12 passes that traveled 10 yards past the line of scrimmage — he completed seven of those passes for 196 yards for an average of 16.2 yards per attempt.
Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview: The Unpopular Play
The Chargers have not covered the spread this season. Backing a team that knows its season is over may seem like a futile effort, but there are a few interesting numbers that lead me to believe the Chargers will remain competitive and potentially earn their first victory of the season.
Let’s begin with several trends favoring the underdog:
- Using all of the data available in BetLabs, all underdogs in the month of November playing against teams with a winning percentage of less than 30% (like Houston) are 72-54-6, covering at a 57.1% rate. Filtering out the first two months of the season eliminates the potentially small sample sizes of teams that just got off to a slow start.
- In games played in November or later, when those underdogs are +6 or greater, they have covered at a 66.7% rate, going 24-12-1 against the number. This exact scenario has not occurred during the 2026 season, but since 2010, these underdogs are a remarkable 18-3 ATS, covering at a 85.7% rate. Since 2020, there have been 10 instances of such a circumstance — the underdog has covered in nine of those games.
- Honing in on very bad teams — teams with a winning percentage of 30% or less, playing as a home underdog of 6 points or more are 47-31-1 ATS, covering at a 60.1% clip in games played in November or later.
The Chargers offense is averaging a league-low 1.2 points per drive this season.
However, they showed signs of life last week as left tackle Joe Alt returned from injury. Justin Herbert averaged 8.0 yards per pass attempt — in fact, in games that Alt has started and finished, Herbert has averaged 7.3 yards per attempt.
For context, that mark would be higher than what Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Bryce Young and Jordan Love have produced this season on a per-pass-attempt basis.
We can clearly evaluate that the Chargers defense is playing at a much higher level than what Houston has offered. Los Angeles is 10th in defensive success rate and eighth in EPA/dropback. Against a Texans team that cannot run the ball consistently (26th in EPA per rush), slowing down C.J. Stroud and the passing attack of the Texans is really the only concern of defensive coordinator Chris O’Leary.
Furthermore, the Chargers have been excellent at getting off of the field on third downs in recent games. Over their past four games, they have allowed just 10 third-down conversions on 45 plays, boasting a league-best 22% conversion rate.
Texans vs Chargers Prediction, Betting Analysis
It may feel uneasy to pull the trigger on backing a winless team, but this is a good opportunity to buy the Chargers at their absolute floor.
Most importantly, you can simultaneously fade a team in the Texans that isn’t particularly formidable on either side of the ball.
Points will be at a premium in this game — as the total sits at 40.5 — meaning the six points we'll get gains additional value. My recommendation is to shop around diligently or to remain patient to secure a +6.
It is unlikely this line moves in the direction of the Chargers as 65% of all the public tickets are backing the Texans. With that said, I’d play this down to +5 as the Chargers should push for their first victory in 2026/
Pick: Chargers +6
